PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Hal » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:18 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:42 pm
jason wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Hal wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:08 pm
jason wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:01 pm
Hal wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:05 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:48 am
Given that that’s portfolio charts, I’d imagine it’s from the early 1970s to present.
Touche! Couldn't fit title in with original screenshot :D

Also from Portfolio Charts...
Can you please explain how the Portfolio Charts heat map works? If I got to 2013 and go to the 9 year column, it says 4%. But there is no way I got a 4% real CAGR. My nominal CAGR is under 5%. I started the PP in mid-June 2013.
The 9th year had a 4% growth, not to be read as 4% over 9 years.
Really? I thought it was the real CAGR for someone who has held the PP for 9 years. I thought that is why there are a lot of negative years in the one and two column, but none when you go far out. Because if you hold the PP for a long time, historically, you always get in the 4-5% real CAGR range. If you look at the 20 year column, it's all 4s and 5s.
You're interpreting the dataset correctly. Your actual CAGR may be a little bit different due to slightly different start dates. Also, much of the damage has been done in 2022, which I don't think is reflected anywhere in the portfoliocharts data.
Thanks!! Learnt something today
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by jalanlong » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:02 am
Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:41 am
Something I realized way too late in my investing career was recency bias. Recency bias in the portfolio sphere is when people gravitate to things that have good track records at a given point in time...and because that is the case, shortly thereafter the asset/portfolio normally will often be returning to mean in the not too distant future.
Recency bias pervades all of life. Particularly with sports fans. They are forever stuck in the static present with no sense of history or that the future can be any different than the present.
Except for Cowboy fans and Dallas media who still believe they are a Championship franchise despite not having been past the divisional playoff round in 28 years.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:33 am

Do people still believe in this horse shit?
I would have a hard time explaining to anyone why I was still sitting in this awful portfolio.
Hopefully this year finally sinks this portfolio and the site forever.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by dockinGA » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:43 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:33 am
Do people still believe in this horse shit?
I would have a hard time explaining to anyone why I was still sitting in this awful portfolio.
Hopefully this year finally sinks this portfolio and the site forever.
Budd, I realize this is a fool's errand, but in the interest of trying to engage you in meaningful conversation for the benefit of this site that you hope dies:

1. What is your current portfolio construction? Has it been consistent recently or are you changing it daily?
2. How has your portfolio performed this year?
3. How will your portfolio behave in response to any number of potential outcomes that still lay ahead of us in the investing world?
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am

I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Xan » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:11 am

Perhaps another relevant question: let's say your portfolio lost 4% real every year forever. How long would it support your spending?
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Hal » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:28 am

FWIW.
Performance of Aussie GoldSmith PP: 25% Gold 75% VDCO for past 2 years
Attachments
GoldSmithPP Gold and VDCO.pdf
(61.82 KiB) Downloaded 15 times
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Desert » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:29 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am
I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
This is a fair criticism, but the error is expecting gold to save a portfolio just because it happened to do so many decades ago. No portfolio can be trusted, they will all fail us at some point.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by jason » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am

Desert wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:29 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am
I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
This is a fair criticism, but the error is expecting gold to save a portfolio just because it happened to do so many decades ago. No portfolio can be trusted, they will all fail us at some point.
It's premature to count gold out, isn't it? Lots of analysts say that what is happening with gold right now was predictable and we should not expect gold to go up until the Fed stops raising rates.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Kbg » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm

In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am
I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
Gold is the dollars competitor …

It is the dollar’s strength that is golds problem , not gold itself .

In India gold is up 68% since 2019
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by dockinGA » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:38 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:26 pm
In defense of HB…this is exactly the scenario where he said the PP would not do well. So, let’s give credit to truth in advertising.
Yes, this is the very definition of a tight money recession, it appears. And in addition to HB's prediction, think about whether there is ANYTHING that's done well? Cash is king (and even it loses out to inflation).

Let's just hang on for the ride and see what stage comes next.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by dockinGA » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am
I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
Gold is the dollars competitor …

It is the dollar’s strength that is golds problem , not gold itself .

In India gold is up 68% since 2019
Mathjak, do you by any chance have any data on inflation rates in India?

What I'm struggling to come to grips with is high inflation in the US with a strong dollar at the same time. My gut is telling me that inflation over the last year should be 20%+ across the rest of the world, but to my knowledge, most reported numbers are roughly in line with the US inflation. Kind of a head scratcher with the dollar gaining 15% or whatever it's been over the last few months.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Tyler » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:14 pm

jason wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm
Really? I thought it was the real CAGR for someone who has held the PP for 9 years. I thought that is why there are a lot of negative years in the one and two column, but none when you go far out. Because if you hold the PP for a long time, historically, you always get in the 4-5% real CAGR range. If you look at the 20 year column, it's all 4s and 5s.
This is correct. The Heat Map shows the CAGR from the start date on the left over the number of years at the top. And the more columns you count over to the right, the greater number of years that are included in the calculation.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:23 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:51 am
I’ve said it here a billion times.

The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash.

Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very “economic climate” and it has failed to produce at the most crucial time.

I hold stocks, gold and cash - 12%, 3% and 85% respectively.
Gold is the dollars competitor …

It is the dollar’s strength that is golds problem , not gold itself .

In India gold is up 68% since 2019
Mathjak, do you by any chance have any data on inflation rates in India?

What I'm struggling to come to grips with is high inflation in the US with a strong dollar at the same time. My gut is telling me that inflation over the last year should be 20%+ across the rest of the world, but to my knowledge, most reported numbers are roughly in line with the US inflation. Kind of a head scratcher with the dollar gaining 15% or whatever it's been over the last few months.
Last I saw it was about 7%


https://tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:04 pm

Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day.

If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022.

I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining.

But what I currently am finding is being out, and mostly into SHV and a couple savings accounts (paying 2.75%), is that I really don't want to be in anymore. So as discussed in the other topic, I continue to look at annuities.

And I finally learned exactly what sequence of returns risk really means. I mean, I think I did, but now I really do. With my history, if I stayed invested in the markets, my day of retirement would likely start a multiyear decline or stagnation, and I'd already be fretting about pulling out my 4% "safe" withdrawal rate.

I am happy in cash, because it is paying something (even if it doesn't cover inflation), and I'd be more than happy for the Fed to overshoot interest rates in the next few months, which would hopefully increased annuity payouts and I'll pull the trigger on one.

The last thing that I want to have happen in retirement is to get anxious when the business report comes on TV or radio or Yahoo or wherever. I want to be able to say I don't care.

As for gold... I got sucked in in 2008 and it sucks. Dollar strength is not helping. At this point, I am considering my physical gold another "annuity" -- I'll sell a number of coins each year probably between ages 60 and 70 until social security kicks in to take up the slack. If I have any left, great, if not, whatever. At the least, it is real and difficult to sell physical, so not even subject to any anxiety of whether I should get out of it or not.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Desert » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:32 pm

jason wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am
Desert wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:29 am
This is a fair criticism, but the error is expecting gold to save a portfolio just because it happened to do so many decades ago. No portfolio can be trusted, they will all fail us at some point.
It's premature to count gold out, isn't it? Lots of analysts say that what is happening with gold right now was predictable and we should not expect gold to go up until the Fed stops raising rates.
Hmm, well I do think it's premature to count gold out, yes. Gold could go on a big run anytime. But I don't know anything about a theory regarding gold responding only after the Fed stops raising rates.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:47 pm

Last edited by I Shrugged on Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by jason » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:05 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:04 pm
Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day.

If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022.

I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining.

But what I currently am finding is being out, and mostly into SHV and a couple savings accounts (paying 2.75%), is that I really don't want to be in anymore. So as discussed in the other topic, I continue to look at annuities.

And I finally learned exactly what sequence of returns risk really means. I mean, I think I did, but now I really do. With my history, if I stayed invested in the markets, my day of retirement would likely start a multiyear decline or stagnation, and I'd already be fretting about pulling out my 4% "safe" withdrawal rate.

I am happy in cash, because it is paying something (even if it doesn't cover inflation), and I'd be more than happy for the Fed to overshoot interest rates in the next few months, which would hopefully increased annuity payouts and I'll pull the trigger on one.

The last thing that I want to have happen in retirement is to get anxious when the business report comes on TV or radio or Yahoo or wherever. I want to be able to say I don't care.

As for gold... I got sucked in in 2008 and it sucks. Dollar strength is not helping. At this point, I am considering my physical gold another "annuity" -- I'll sell a number of coins each year probably between ages 60 and 70 until social security kicks in to take up the slack. If I have any left, great, if not, whatever. At the least, it is real and difficult to sell physical, so not even subject to any anxiety of whether I should get out of it or not.
I've look at annuities but what scares me is that if rates shoot up really high after I buy an an annuity, I could end up regretting it. You end up with a lot of risk if there is a high inflation/hyper-inflation scenario.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:06 pm

Annuities are best used as a piece of the bond budget , not to beat inflation …other assets long term do a better job
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:23 pm

Also the bulk of an spia payout comes from mortality credits , as those who die pay for those who live .

The effect of rates going up or down on them is not as great as you would think
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:33 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:23 pm
Also the bulk of an spia payout comes from mortality credits , as those who die pay for those who live .

The effect of rates going up or down on them is not as great as you would think
Sure. But there is some effect, and I am in no rush.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:36 pm

jason wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:05 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:04 pm
Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day.

If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022.

I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining.

But what I currently am finding is being out, and mostly into SHV and a couple savings accounts (paying 2.75%), is that I really don't want to be in anymore. So as discussed in the other topic, I continue to look at annuities.

And I finally learned exactly what sequence of returns risk really means. I mean, I think I did, but now I really do. With my history, if I stayed invested in the markets, my day of retirement would likely start a multiyear decline or stagnation, and I'd already be fretting about pulling out my 4% "safe" withdrawal rate.

I am happy in cash, because it is paying something (even if it doesn't cover inflation), and I'd be more than happy for the Fed to overshoot interest rates in the next few months, which would hopefully increased annuity payouts and I'll pull the trigger on one.

The last thing that I want to have happen in retirement is to get anxious when the business report comes on TV or radio or Yahoo or wherever. I want to be able to say I don't care.

As for gold... I got sucked in in 2008 and it sucks. Dollar strength is not helping. At this point, I am considering my physical gold another "annuity" -- I'll sell a number of coins each year probably between ages 60 and 70 until social security kicks in to take up the slack. If I have any left, great, if not, whatever. At the least, it is real and difficult to sell physical, so not even subject to any anxiety of whether I should get out of it or not.
I've look at annuities but what scares me is that if rates shoot up really high after I buy an an annuity, I could end up regretting it. You end up with a lot of risk if there is a high inflation/hyper-inflation scenario.
Yes, but what it also allows me to do is mentally allow myself to be riskier with the rest of my assets because I know I have a minimum amount coming in. That rest of my assets will hopefully be the part that takes care of inflation.
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:36 pm

At 65 an spia is paying out about 7200 a year for 100k

It went from about 17 years to get your own money back to about 14-15 years
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Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Post by vnatale » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:12 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:04 pm

Decided to log on again here -- slow end of day.

If you follow my other topic, you might know I have been nearly 100% out of stocks and bonds since Jan 3,2022.

I really had no idea at the time it was going to be fortuitous, at least up until now. So I am not complaining.

But what I currently am finding is being out, and mostly into SHV and a couple savings accounts (paying 2.75%), is that I really don't want to be in anymore. So as discussed in the other topic, I continue to look at annuities.

And I finally learned exactly what sequence of returns risk really means. I mean, I think I did, but now I really do. With my history, if I stayed invested in the markets, my day of retirement would likely start a multiyear decline or stagnation, and I'd already be fretting about pulling out my 4% "safe" withdrawal rate.

I am happy in cash, because it is paying something (even if it doesn't cover inflation), and I'd be more than happy for the Fed to overshoot interest rates in the next few months, which would hopefully increased annuity payouts and I'll pull the trigger on one.

The last thing that I want to have happen in retirement is to get anxious when the business report comes on TV or radio or Yahoo or wherever. I want to be able to say I don't care.

As for gold... I got sucked in in 2008 and it sucks. Dollar strength is not helping. At this point, I am considering my physical gold another "annuity" -- I'll sell a number of coins each year probably between ages 60 and 70 until social security kicks in to take up the slack. If I have any left, great, if not, whatever. At the least, it is real and difficult to sell physical, so not even subject to any anxiety of whether I should get out of it or not.


Do you want to elaborate on the annuities? I do not remember you writing about it elsewhere.

My few thoughts are that though some think they have their place ... most detest them.

I also read that they are no different than buying a bond from a private company.
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