Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by pugchief » Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:10 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:47 pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/israe ... s-renminbi


This is what "greatest ally" in the Middle East is doing
From the article. It looks like less than 5% yuan, mostly at the reduction of the Euro. I know you won't answer this, but this isn't the first time you have implied that you are antisemitic; Is there some particular reason you don't like Jews?
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:32 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:47 pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/israe ... s-renminbi


This is what "greatest ally" in the Middle East is doing
{headline} Israel Dumps The Dollar For China's Renminbi
As part of a global investment philosophy, Israel will have 2% in the second largest economy in the world, China’s renminbi, and a mere 61% in the dollar (down from 66%). They sure dumped the dollar didn’t they. What will these traitorous Christ-killers do next?
/s
Let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Gold breaks 1800 again MON 8, noontime
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Desert » Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:07 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:32 pm
What will these traitorous Christ-killers do next?
/s
;D

God only knows!
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:03 pm

I still have some TLT that I am writing calls on, but yesterday I converted all my 401k based long bonds to DIPSX, (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIPSX?p=DIPSX) which is available in my 401k and seemed a good compromise for now.

I still have my physical gold at about 20%.

I am down to <6% in stocks (as of yesterday). Feels good to have been out today, but one day doesn't make me right, nor help me figure out when to jump back in. My minimum time horizon before I increase stock exposure again is 6 months.

My cash position is >60%. Some getting 0.5% in a savings account, some in i-bonds, rest sitting in my and my wife's IRA as collateral for my call/put option writing getting 0%.

I have not made such a drastic change to my portfolio since I moved into the PP in 2014.

Like I said, I feel better right now having done this move, and I think I have a shot at getting a decent overall return with my call/put writing while risking a much smaller percentage of my overall net worth. It's a decently good feeling right now, but I have 50/50 confidence I'll be successful long term.

I took the plunge in getting out but I am quite worried about what I'll reasonably use as a trigger to get back in. We'll see.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by perfect_simulation » Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:00 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:03 pm
I still have some TLT that I am writing calls on
I use EDV instead of TLT and I've been tempted multiple times to sell calls on it but I never do. Why? Because I know as soon as a sell a call, some massive event will happen and TLT/EDV will skyrocket and I'll be selling for a pittance ;D
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Apr 27, 2022 2:46 pm

Skyrocket is a relative term I guess. TLT has been pretty good dropping like a rock, and ...slowly... rising. So far, I have gone multiple weeks thinking I would get called out, instead being able to rewrite on a weekly expiring basis. It'll end at some point, which is fine. Then I'll write some puts on it assuming we look like we are headed into a slower/recessionary period.

I think TLT is going to do a bunch of consolidating between 115-130 so probably a decent time to be writing something.

My opinion. Usually wrong...
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by blue_ruin17 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am

As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu.

It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (...maybe much sooner than we all might expect).

It is so fun watching HBPPers panic about holding stocks in 2011 because a decade long secular bear market was "self-evident". Same with gold in 2013. I particularly enjoy reading threads posted by people questioning the safety of the PP in response to market events that I honestly don't even remember.

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.

Maybe "this time is different". But if history, and old posts on this forum that have aged like a slab of ham, have taught me anything, it almost never is.

Smile and wave to the HBPP tourists from the future who are reading these threads a decade from now with great amusement.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:50 am

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu.

It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (...maybe much sooner than we all might expect).

It is so fun watching HBPPers panic about holding stocks in 2011 because a decade long secular bear market was "self-evident". Same with gold in 2013. I particularly enjoy reading threads posted by people questioning the safety of the PP in response to market events that I honestly don't even remember.

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.

Maybe "this time is different". But if history, and old posts on this forum that have aged like a slab of ham, have taught me anything, it almost never is.

Smile and wave to the HBPP tourists from the future who are reading these threads a decade from now with great amusement.
Timely post, I have to buy some treasuries!
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Tortoise » Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:46 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.

[...]
Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP.

Over the past couple of years, I've been struggling with trying to decide whether to reconsider my asset allocation based on the fact that LTTs have enjoyed a multi-decade bull market and are limited by an effective price ceiling in a way that other volatile assets like stocks and gold are not.

But I'm the type of person who won't make such a change without first doing lots of homework and convincing myself that the new allocation I'm switching into is clearly superior.

I haven't yet reached such a level of conviction, so for now I'm sticking with the PP. In fact, I rebalanced just the other day and bought a bunch of LTTs and gold to bring them each back up to 25%. It feels like a leap of faith, and I guess it is, but at least it's mechanical rather than emotional and speculative.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by joypog » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:12 pm

Morgan Houssel likes to say having a diversified portfolio means "always saying I'm sorry."

As for LTT's....if you believe in David Bahnsen in this interview on Jonah Goldberg's Remnant Podcast, we're looking at long term deflation. If so LTT's might be handy, even with these pitiful rates. (at the 35 minute mark).
https://remnant.thedispatch.com/p/you-c ... medium=web
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:09 pm

We could easily tip into deflation.
Or not.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by joypog » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:33 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:09 pm
We could easily tip into deflation.
Or not.
I think someone should propose a portfolio that could navigate all kinds of economic environments...
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:40 pm

joypog wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:33 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:09 pm
We could easily tip into deflation.
Or not.
I think someone should propose a portfolio that could navigate all kinds of economic environments...
:)
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by vnatale » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:40 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:46 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.

[...]


Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP.

Over the past couple of years, I've been struggling with trying to decide whether to reconsider my asset allocation based on the fact that LTTs have enjoyed a multi-decade bull market and are limited by an effective price ceiling in a way that other volatile assets like stocks and gold are not.

But I'm the type of person who won't make such a change without first doing lots of homework and convincing myself that the new allocation I'm switching into is clearly superior.

I haven't yet reached such a level of conviction, so for now I'm sticking with the PP. In fact, I rebalanced just the other day and bought a bunch of LTTs and gold to bring them each back up to 25%. It feels like a leap of faith, and I guess it is, but at least it's mechanical rather than emotional and speculative.


I can well identify!
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by blue_ruin17 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:46 pm
blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.

[...]
Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP.

Over the past couple of years, I've been struggling with trying to decide whether to reconsider my asset allocation based on the fact that LTTs have enjoyed a multi-decade bull market and are limited by an effective price ceiling in a way that other volatile assets like stocks and gold are not.

But I'm the type of person who won't make such a change without first doing lots of homework and convincing myself that the new allocation I'm switching into is clearly superior.

I haven't yet reached such a level of conviction, so for now I'm sticking with the PP. In fact, I rebalanced just the other day and bought a bunch of LTTs and gold to bring them each back up to 25%. It feels like a leap of faith, and I guess it is, but at least it's mechanical rather than emotional and speculative.
For me, LTTs are a buffer against deflationary shocks (2008, 2020, et al.) and an insurance policy against a Second Great Depression that lasts a generation.

I would be a fanatical gold-bug if the PP didn't protect me from myself so well, so for me to admit that a protracted deflationary regime card remains in the deck says a lot. I've thought about this topic for a long, long time now, and I've never been able to discount this possibility. I just don't know what card will be dealt next, despite my bias toward believing it will be stagflation.

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters.
"In truth, the only thing that matters to you about your portfolio is its psychic reward, the positive way it makes you feel."

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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by blue_ruin17 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:48 pm

joypog wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:12 pm
Morgan Houssel likes to say having a diversified portfolio means "always saying I'm sorry."

As for LTT's....if you believe in David Bahnsen in this interview on Jonah Goldberg's Remnant Podcast, we're looking at long term deflation. If so LTT's might be handy, even with these pitiful rates. (at the 35 minute mark).
https://remnant.thedispatch.com/p/you-c ... medium=web
Thanks for the link. I devour podcasts like red meat, so I'm always looking for new material.

"Intellectual schizophrenic" is a phrase I will now commit myself to utilizing at least once a week.
"In truth, the only thing that matters to you about your portfolio is its psychic reward, the positive way it makes you feel."

Amazon: Investing Equanimity: The Logic & Wisdom of the Permanent Portfolio
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by seajay » Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:24 am

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.
Take a PP, chuck out the cash element as that's just a portfolio de-leverage, rebalance once per decade, (maybe) eliminating what is the rat poison of that time and for 1980 to 2019 inclusive decades all-stock turned $10K into $746K, whilst

1980's no gold (Dow/Gold was down at near 1.0 levels at the start of the 1980's)

1990's indifferent (thirds stock/LTT/Gold)

2000's no stock (high 1999 stock valuations)

2010's no LTT's (low yields)

... ended 2019 with near the same capital as that of all-stock, but where individual year downsides for all years 1980 to 2019 were relatively mild/small.

Stock rewards/PP risk.

2020's and Dow/Gold was relatively high at the start, as were LTT yields relatively low. Throwing both stocks and LTT out to leave just gold and decade to date (end of June 2022) that's just offset inflation. Will the 2020's be remembered as a decade of deflation/era of gold, poor stock and LTT rewards ?? Time will tell. Certainly from near the start of that decade it does feel like everything expensive (driven by low interest rates/high debts), the start of de-globalization ...etc.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Xan » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:37 am

seajay wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:24 am
blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun.
Take a PP, chuck out the cash element as that's just a portfolio de-leverage, rebalance once per decade, (maybe) eliminating what is the rat poison of that time and for 1980 to 2019 inclusive decades all-stock turned $10K into $746K, whilst

1980's no gold (Dow/Gold was down at near 1.0 levels at the start of the 1980's)

1990's indifferent (thirds stock/LTT/Gold)

2000's no stock (high 1999 stock valuations)

2010's no LTT's (low yields)

... ended 2019 with near the same capital as that of all-stock, but where individual year downsides for all years 1980 to 2019 were relatively mild/small.

Stock rewards/PP risk.

2020's and Dow/Gold was relatively high at the start, as were LTT yields relatively low. Throwing both stocks and LTT out to leave just gold and decade to date (end of June 2022) that's just offset inflation. Will the 2020's be remembered as a decade of deflation/era of gold, poor stock and LTT rewards ?? Time will tell. Certainly from near the start of that decade it does feel like everything expensive (driven by low interest rates/high debts), the start of de-globalization ...etc.

Do you have a mechanism for telling which asset is the "rat poison" ahead of time?
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:03 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm
What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters.
I haven't done enough homework to identify a better allocation, but the basic idea I've been toying with is to drop LTTs and reallocate that piece to other assets (probably stocks). One of the alternative allocations I ran through a backtester was 50/25/25 stocks/gold/cash. It provides something like 30% more return than the PP at the cost of 40% higher short-term volatility.

You're right that an extended period of deflation (even for a generation) is a possibility. But even if that happens, LTT upside is limited by an interest rate floor of 0%. Rates might go slightly negative, but they can't go significantly negative. So by the mathematics of bond prices, that means limited upside for LTTs even in a "best-case" LTT scenario.

I guess the reason I'm currently sticking with the PP is that there are certain potential long-term environments in which the best we might be able to do is to limit losses rather than maximize gains. In such "defensive" secular environments, the PP is an excellent choice since it does not place an oversized bet on any single asset. The equally-sized firewalls limit the worst-case losses.

I guess that means I'm a pessimist by nature.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by GT » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:27 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:03 pm
blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm
What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters.
I haven't done enough homework to identify a better allocation, but the basic idea I've been toying with is to drop LTTs and reallocate that piece to other assets (probably stocks). One of the alternative allocations I ran through a backtester was 50/25/25 stocks/gold/cash. It provides something like 30% more return than the PP at the cost of 40% higher short-term volatility.

You're right that an extended period of deflation (even for a generation) is a possibility. But even if that happens, LTT upside is limited by an interest rate floor of 0%. Rates might go slightly negative, but they can't go significantly negative. So by the mathematics of bond prices, that means limited upside for LTTs even in a "best-case" LTT scenario.

I guess the reason I'm currently sticking with the PP is that there are certain potential long-term environments in which the best we might be able to do is to limit losses rather than maximize gains. In such "defensive" secular environments, the PP is an excellent choice since it does not place an oversized bet on any single asset. The equally-sized firewalls limit the worst-case losses.

I guess that means I'm a pessimist by nature.
If you drop LTT, when would you see yourself buying back into them?
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by vnatale » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:27 pm

GT wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:27 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:03 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters.


I haven't done enough homework to identify a better allocation, but the basic idea I've been toying with is to drop LTTs and reallocate that piece to other assets (probably stocks). One of the alternative allocations I ran through a backtester was 50/25/25 stocks/gold/cash. It provides something like 30% more return than the PP at the cost of 40% higher short-term volatility.

You're right that an extended period of deflation (even for a generation) is a possibility. But even if that happens, LTT upside is limited by an interest rate floor of 0%. Rates might go slightly negative, but they can't go significantly negative. So by the mathematics of bond prices, that means limited upside for LTTs even in a "best-case" LTT scenario.

I guess the reason I'm currently sticking with the PP is that there are certain potential long-term environments in which the best we might be able to do is to limit losses rather than maximize gains. In such "defensive" secular environments, the PP is an excellent choice since it does not place an oversized bet on any single asset. The equally-sized firewalls limit the worst-case losses.

I guess that means I'm a pessimist by nature.


If you drop LTT, when would you see yourself buying back into them?


THE question. And the one that the Permanent Portfolio is supposed to prevent one from ever having to ask oneself!
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:43 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:27 pm
THE question. And the one that the Permanent Portfolio is supposed to prevent one from ever having to ask oneself!
I think even Craig once said that once LTT rates drop below, say, 1% that sticking with them would be too dogmatic.

I guess no portfolio is truly ever "set it and forget it".
The only dogma I follow is diversification.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:13 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:43 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:27 pm

THE question. And the one that the Permanent Portfolio is supposed to prevent one from ever having to ask oneself!


I think even Craig once said that once LTT rates drop below, say, 1% that sticking with them would be too dogmatic.

I guess no portfolio is truly ever "set it and forget it".


Yes, he did say that. Not in his and Tex's book but in this forum. I believe it was in one of last posts he's had in this forum.
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by dualstow » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:58 am

Kind of. He used it as an example, but didn’t want to give a specific number because he didn’t want people blindly following.
Let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Gold breaks 1800 again MON 8, noontime
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Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Post by Lorddoskias123 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:58 am

craigr wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:53 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:50 pm

Hi Craig,

Welcome back! Do you have any new thoughts to your 4 year old statement regarding selling long term treasuries at 1% yield? Have you changed your mind since?
I'm likely to just rebalance according to plan. I don't have any better options or ideas right now. Each person is different and I can't offer specific advice due to varying circumstances. Ask me again when they are 0%. ;)
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