Putin Invades Ukraine II

[dualstow]

That’s a fascinating insight! I’ll be thinking about those massive books for a while. Your description is both like & unlike some mainland Chinese I used to hang out with. They enjoyed the comforts and freedoms of the U.S., and occasionally criticized Mother China, but when a “foreigner”, i.e. someone born here in the States did the same, it was not tolerated. When parents visited from China they (the young adult aged children of those visitors) removed their favorite Taiwan & Hong Kong satellite channel from the TV so as not to offend their sensibilites.

I spent a few months living and teaching English in Moscow when the country was really falling apart, 1994. (By the way, I thought your native tongue would be really close to Russian, but I guess not?) I had no money and my students came mostly from rich and privileged families. They were mainly interested in the finer details of Beavis & Butthead, which they watched on satellite.
Looking back, satellite tv does more for the West vs China, Russia and Iran than missiles ever could

[I Shrugged]

I see parallels between how Russia is looking at this and how Lincoln and the North viewed the secession by the South. I’m not fond of either view. People should rule themselves.

But anyway if that’s the view, look out.

[yankees60]

This is a few days old, but it describes the best-case end to the Ukraine war.

Here are the first 2 of 12 points:

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

https://www.americanpurpose.com/article ... or-defeat/

I'm sure that the vast majority of the world believes that all the above is totally true!

[yankees60]

I'm sure that the vast majority of the world believes that all the above is totally true!

I wonder ... it looks more like the U.S. and EU are standing by watching and fearfully hoping that Ukraine will be able to survive without intervention and escalation.

Living through the Cuban Missile Crisis as an aware 11 year old (as were all my 6th grade classmates) was harrowing enough.

This is probably the closest we've been since then to direct conflict with Russia. Therefore, it seems wise to do all short of direct conflict given the nuclear arsenal Russia possesses (which currently is greater than ours).

I think I stated recently that there are only 200 to 300 nuclear weapons necessary to destroy the entire world and there are currently about 13,000 in existence.

[ppnewbie]

I hope I’m wrong but I’ll take the other side. Putin will double down, and bomb the crap out of the cities trying to force a solution that he can sell to his country.

That outcome wouldn't surprise me either, but like you, I'm hoping Ukraine is able to repel the invasion.

One thing that I do think is clear at this point, regardless of the outcome: Russia's military is a mess. A kleptocracy isn't optimal for building an effective military. Watching this unfold makes me thankful for our form of military industrial complex, despite its many flaws.

Interesting perspective. I've been hearing more lately about how their military is breaking down. I want to try to figure out how much of this information is our own propaganda (I cant figure out what is true anymore). As a slight aside, I need to continue watching a series I was watching called "Free to Choose" on Amazon. It's a series by Milton Friedman. I am not sure if I agree with everything he talks about free markets but I am now starting to wonder if free unregulated markets are the secret sauce to defeating all other systems.

[yankees60]

I hope I’m wrong but I’ll take the other side. Putin will double down, and bomb the crap out of the cities trying to force a solution that he can sell to his country.

That outcome wouldn't surprise me either, but like you, I'm hoping Ukraine is able to repel the invasion.

One thing that I do think is clear at this point, regardless of the outcome: Russia's military is a mess. A kleptocracy isn't optimal for building an effective military. Watching this unfold makes me thankful for our form of military industrial complex, despite its many flaws.

Interesting perspective. I've been hearing more lately about how their military is breaking down. I want to try to figure out how much of this information is our own propaganda (I cant figure out what is true anymore). As a slight aside, I need to continue watching a series I was watching called "Free to Choose" on Amazon. It's a series by Milton Friedman. I am not sure if I agree with everything he talks about free markets but I am now starting to wonder if free unregulated markets are the secret sauce to defeating all other systems.

It's no. No pure system has all the answers. It's a blend of the best from all systems.

[yankees60]

https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... -in-putins

Do reported Russian 'whistleblower' accounts indicate a crack in Putin's power?

[yankees60]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60763494

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations

[yankees60]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ts/627061/

America Needs a Better Plan to Fight Autocracy

By enabling Putin and other global kleptocrats, the West undermined democracy. It’s time to change tactics.

[Vil]

By the way, I thought your native tongue would be really close to Russian, but I guess not?

Both use Slavonic/Cyrillic alphabet, but more different words than common ones.

Looking back, satellite tv does more for the West vs China, Russia and Iran than missiles ever could

For sure

In general, I see the subject of this thread a bit misleading. Putin is not just a person, it's a way of thinking. I fear that even if he falls, the queue of ones that want to take his place is long enough (history has shown this is the case, those folks simply adore autocratic leaderships).

[dualstow]

That would be an interesting thread! Some Crave An Autocracy
i think this one is mostly on target. This invasion and all the suffering it’s causing is Putin’s pet project.

[barrett]

In general, I see the subject of this thread a bit misleading. Putin is not just a person, it's a way of thinking. I fear that even if he falls, the queue of ones that want to take his place is long enough (history has shown this is the case, those folks simply adore autocratic leaderships).

This is something I've been wondering about but not seen discussed elsewhere. The general narrative is along the lines of, "If someone would only assassinate Putin..." The implication is that he's doing this all on his own, a conclusion that is likely supported by all those photos we keep seeing (at least here in the US) of Putin sitting alone at one end of a huge conference table.

[dualstow]

…
The general narrative is along the lines of, "If someone would only assassinate Putin..." The implication is that he's doing this all on his own, a conclusion that is likely supported by all those photos we keep seeing (at least here in the US) of Putin sitting alone at one end of a huge conference table.

Well, it’s supported by his words and his career, not least of which, ensuring that he is always Prime Minister or President, forever. That’s not to say that he’s not a product of a system, a system that will replace him with someone more like him and less like Yeltsin. But he’s definitely calling the shots.

Another thing to explore, though, perhaps in another thread, is the idea that even before this war, one could have said that Putin is in big trouble if he’s ever out of power. As the Chinese say, “When you’re riding the tiger, it’s very dangerous to dismount.”

[barrett]

Another thing to explore, though, perhaps in another thread, is the idea that even before this war, one could have said that Putin is in big trouble if he’s ever out of power. As the Chinese say, “When you’re riding the tiger, it’s very dangerous to dismount.”

Of either Putin or Xi Jinping losing power, my Chinese wife always says, "They be kill him SO bad!!"

[dualstow]

[foglifter]

I Need to understand more about the Coup that overthrew the democratically elected Ukrainian government that I believe had good relations with Russia.

Was there a coup? I don’t remember one except the one in Russia- well, the Soviet Union. The Soviets did poison a Ukrainian leader. Looking at wikipedia, because I don’t remember most of this stuff, I see Yanukovych, but he didn’t come to power out of a coup.

Yanukovich was elected in 2010, but the coup in February 2014 ousted him.

Here's a good documentary "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone filmed in 2016, it digs deep into the history of Ukraine and helps to understand the issues that eventually led to what's happening now. YouTube prompts you with 2 warnings about offensive content as there is some graphic footage from WWII and 2014 events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcmNGvaDUs

That said, whatever internal issues Ukraine has, the war is not an answer. Things like anti-Russian policies, attack on language, rise of nationalist groups can and should be solved by Ukrainian people themselves. Russia could have acted in other ways, for example by offering immigration opportunities, humanitarian aid, diplomatic measures, trade etc.

On the other hand, it might be that what we're seeing is not as simple as a war between Russia and Ukraine.

[dualstow]

Thanks!
I always take Oliver Stone with a grain of salt, but I’m going to watch this in case it gets taken down.
Got to balance Schwarzenegger with something.

[dualstow]

whatever internal issues Ukraine has, the war is not an answer.

i agree and I would add: not trusting the CIA should not mean trusting the former head of the KGB.

[I Shrugged]

I guess I’m playing the “what about” game, but what Russia intended to do seems to have been roughly equivalent to what the US did in Grenada, and for roughly similar reasons.

And I get triggered by our president calling someone a war criminal. Yes, Putin is a war criminal. Right up there with Bush 2 and others.

It’s hard for me to get past hypocrisy, and to watch the US demonstrate no ability to reflect on the examples set by our own actions over the years. And then to be sanctimonious when others do the same things.

Maybe I need to get a lobotomy or something.

[dualstow]

I guess I’m playing the “what about” game, but what Russia intended to do seems to have been roughly equivalent to what the US did in Grenada, and for roughly similar reasons.
…

So Putin is bombing theaters marked “children” and maternity wards and slaughtering civilians in Kyiv because he’s worried about some Russians in enclaves Could you explain?

[barrett]

And I get triggered by our president calling someone a war criminal. Yes, Putin is a war criminal. Right up there with Bush 2 and others.

It’s hard for me to get past hypocrisy, and to watch the US demonstrate no ability to reflect on the examples set by our own actions over the years. And then to be sanctimonious when others do the same things.

Maybe I need to get a lobotomy or something.

No lobotomy needed. Completely agree.

[dualstow]

I have a hard time getting anyone to say something explicit.
Something beyond, Maybe all is not what it seems, or A is the same as B (without stating what A is or what B is).

[ppnewbie]

And I get triggered by our president calling someone a war criminal. Yes, Putin is a war criminal. Right up there with Bush 2 and others.

It’s hard for me to get past hypocrisy, and to watch the US demonstrate no ability to reflect on the examples set by our own actions over the years. And then to be sanctimonious when others do the same things.

Maybe I need to get a lobotomy or something.

No lobotomy needed. Completely agree.

I can think the game is to hammer the majority of the population with propaganda. It works, the stuff I hear coming out of the people around me is essentially parroting what product has been sold to them. And I am shocked that POTUS would ever say that about Putin. Maybe one of his most foolish moments as president (IMHO).

[yankees60]

I guess I’m playing the “what about” game, but what Russia intended to do seems to have been roughly equivalent to what the US did in Grenada, and for roughly similar reasons.

And I get triggered by our president calling someone a war criminal. Yes, Putin is a war criminal. Right up there with Bush 2 and others.

It’s hard for me to get past hypocrisy, and to watch the US demonstrate no ability to reflect on the examples set by our own actions over the years. And then to be sanctimonious when others do the same things.

Maybe I need to get a lobotomy or something.

No, you don't. A lot of truth in what you have above.

[I Shrugged]

I guess I’m playing the “what about” game, but what Russia intended to do seems to have been roughly equivalent to what the US did in Grenada, and for roughly similar reasons.
…

So Putin is bombing theaters marked “children” and maternity wards and slaughtering civilians in Kyiv because he’s worried about some Russians in enclaves Could you explain?

We can’t be sure what he’s worried about, beyond what he has stated leading up to this.
His war tactics, once it became not a cakewalk, are despicable. I doubt he intended in advance to do this. (Why would he?). But now he is.