The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
modeljc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppbob » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:09 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am


Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
We have been in a bond bull market over that period as rates dropped from 15% down to essentially zero.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-ye ... eld-chart

As the saying goes, trends will remain until they stop.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 pm

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
No, it did a really nice job/had a good run 2002-2012.

Finally, from 1/1/20 until now, gold beats every major US stock measurement (sharpe, CAGR, Max DD). That's a long time and at least 50% of the average investor's investing life span. However, if you split the time period in half the story is 180 between each period.

As mentioned, nice wind in the sails or an anchor.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm

Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
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Dieter
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:04 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
Even if a gold bull market begins today? :)

But, good that you've got your allocation to something that makes you comfortable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:22 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
You're such a liar :) Hilarious.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:53 pm

Dieter wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:04 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm
Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
Even if a gold bull market begins today? :)

But, good that you've got your allocation to something that makes you comfortable.
I have already doubled my $ in Gold and it’s time ring the register. I’m OK with any gains from here as I still hold 5%. Godspeed.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am

i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am

Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:44 am

dockinGA wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
you would be wrong as many change with the times to better bit ..there is no such thing as one type of newsletter.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am

Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:01 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
no risk assets did well today .. commodities got hit too
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pp4me » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:01 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:03 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:46 am
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:52 am
Gold has nothing in common with bitcoin.
not likely the case ..a stumbling dollar will likely see bitcoin respond just like gold would..
Neither responded today.
no risk assets did well today .. commodities got hit too
OMFG, don't you guys have any thing better to do in life than to constantly think about the price of tea in China?

Maybe you don't do that but you give the impression that you do.

Based on your other posts you both have more than enough money to have to worry about your financial well-being.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:58 pm

i suggest you learn about drawing a retirement income .



it isn’t about the amount invested as much as it is how it is invested and how things go both sequence wise and return wise if the money is to last.


unless you are drawing a very low percentage which would be a very inefficient use of ones life savings then INVESTING MATTERS
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:32 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:44 am
dockinGA wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:38 am
i find the diversity of gold , bitcoin and a commodities etf a far better fit than 100% gold today..staying 100% gold today reminds me of those who fight the last war …..

i would think if harry could have seen in to the future the portfolio would have evolved over time.

the reality is nothing in life is permanent
People who constantly tout investing newsletters and the past success thereof also remind me of those who fight the last war......
you would be wrong as many change with the times to better bit ..there is no such thing as one type of newsletter.
I'm pretty sure the only changing with the times you've done is jumping into the PP and jumping out of the PP depending on which way you THINK the investment winds are going to blow.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:47 pm

nah i am done with the pp ….i have no reason to bet that heavy on rates
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:47 pm
nah i am done with the pp ….i have no reason to bet that heavy on rates
This is excellent analysis, and yet another reason why you're such a valued member of this forum.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:08 pm

no one is telling you what to do …..

if you make a comment about me i am going to reply to what you said …
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:25 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:08 pm
no one is telling you what to do …..

if you make a comment about me i am going to reply to what you said …
As noted in the thread on bond rates, you don't always reply. At least not when it comes to past predictions of yours on rates and future stock market movements.

As someone else noted previously, your opinions are antithetical to the PP investment philosophy, and yet you continue to insist on posting on a PP investing forum with your 'opinions' that you masquerade as facts, and rehash the same ole story lines time after time after time. The forum was a little slow while you were gone, but at least we didn't have to read your same crap over and over and over again. Bring some real data to the discussion that could help current/future PP investors, or just take your CNBC inspired 'opinions' elsewhere.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:50 pm

then dont read my posts …..i dont want to read your bullshit replies to me either.

go take your insults to someone else
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:01 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:50 pm
then dont read my posts …..i dont want to read your bullshit replies to me either.

go take your insults to someone else
We've been through this before. If i blocked your posts it would be impossible to follow the conversations.

From a logic standpoint, if you didn't post the crap you post every single day, then you wouldn't have any replies from me to worry about. Surely you understand.

Perhaps if I keep trolling you I'll touch a nerve like I seemingly have before and you'll go away for awhile.

EDIT: In fact, I'm editing this to add that when I pointed out on Nov 4th some of your past predictions that were woefully inaccurate, you went away for a remarkable 18 days.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:10 pm

no actually now you gave me fuel for the fire to keep replying to what i disagree with .

at the end of the day i had my call right about interest rates as both tlt and gld have lost money this year so far or did you want to gloss over that as you forget i said last january the pp was going to have a very hard time and it certainly did as gold , tlt and shy are all negative this year.

down is down
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