The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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vnatale
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:35 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:33 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:36 pm

well at least gold took bitcoin with it


O0 Crypto is really cratering today. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum…

a 2.5% hit to gold doesn’t seem so bad.


What was / is the range of percentage drops you are / were seeing in the various crypto currencies?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pp4me » Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:36 pm

One benefit of this forum is that you can always tell when Gold isn't doing so well even if you aren't paying attention because Budd and Mathjak are always here to let us know.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:06 pm

i own quite a bit of gold.

but less than half of what i did when i had the pp .

i still think gold will do okay , as well as bitcoin .

long term bonds i have less hope for
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Nov 22, 2021 5:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
murphy_p_t
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:09 pm

I predict this pull back today will be viewed as nothing more noise within a month or two, at most.

Head on over to King world News if you need some encouragement
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 22, 2021 6:26 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:09 pm
I predict this pull back today will be viewed as nothing more noise within a month or two, at most.
I think so, too
Let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Salman Rushdie is expected to live
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:13 am

More pain ahead...
Almost done selling down to 10%

It’s unbelievable how poorly the PP is performing this year.
Thank the lord each day I don’t hold 4x25 anymore as my faith in this portfolio has faded to zero.

Gold and LTT’s in the toilet again.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:13 am
More pain ahead...
Almost done selling down to 10%

It’s unbelievable how poorly the PP is performing this year.
Thank the lord each day I don’t hold 4x25 anymore as my faith in this portfolio has faded to zero.

Gold and LTT’s in the toilet again.
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.

that is 5% of my total investable assets in each and not one specific portfolio…gbtc and dbc have done well this year . gold , meh.

the other 80% is in the insight models , also up this year
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:50 am

We always know only one day of a gold selloff never happens.

We also know gold never rides up high for any length of time without getting spanked.

I know MJ was good at pulling the trigger on trading these events, and I tell ya, i am almost interested in doing some side options to take advantage.

This will as stated before allow me to sell off some of the high flying stocks and dump into TLT and gold and silver.

It actually feels good for me. I know you can pooh pooh the PP all the time, but the ability for me to be forced to harvest gains on these stocks is priceless.

And I'll feel better about it when eventually, maybe sometime in the lifetime of the known universe, stocks actually go down for more than a day or two.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:02 am

Sell high, buy low. Sounds like a good strategy.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:05 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:50 am
We always know only one day of a gold selloff never happens.

We also know gold never rides up high for any length of time without getting spanked.

I know MJ was good at pulling the trigger on trading these events, and I tell ya, i am almost interested in doing some side options to take advantage.

This will as stated before allow me to sell off some of the high flying stocks and dump into TLT and gold and silver.

It actually feels good for me. I know you can pooh pooh the PP all the time, but the ability for me to be forced to harvest gains on these stocks is priceless.

And I'll feel better about it when eventually, maybe sometime in the lifetime of the known universe, stocks actually go down for more than a day or two.
I would feel really good about selling my Gold high and buying stocks on a pull-back.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:07 am

Mathjack, 5% commodities... How do you get that exposure?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:25 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:07 am
Mathjack, 5% commodities... How do you get that exposure?
etf dbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:24 pm

modeljc wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
yes i will rebalance … likely each year since volatility is crazy

looking at today gold is down almost 1% , commodities up almost 2% and gbtc bitcoin up 3.50%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:52 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:24 pm
modeljc wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:15 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:31 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:36 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:39 am
i hold 5% in gold , 5% bitcoin , 5% commodities and 5% cash flying fighter cover as opposed to the big position in gold . i dont feel gold alone is diversified enough anymore with all the alternatives.
holy shit MJ has more hodl BTC than I do.
i do hold a lot dollar wise but as a piece of the total it is 5% .

my little hedge portion of gld-dbc-gbtc and fdlxx ride shotgun for all investable assets .so 20% in total .

actually it isnt a mix i though of , it is paul tudor jones
do you rebalance each year or what?
yes i will rebalance … likely each year since volatility is crazy

looking at today gold is down almost 1% , commodities up almost 2% and gbtc bitcoin up 3.50%
Portfolio Visualizer has a 5 year annual return of +50% with a rebalance each year. Does the 20% discount bother you on GBTC. Do you
think it will close or get deeper with the new ETF's coming. I do think the 2% or so expense ratio will for sure need to be reduced.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:54 pm

as far as gbtc i couldn't care less ..i have good gains from it and it works fine with no wallet issues . until a better etf comes along it works well
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am

More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:43 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am
More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
Black Friday Sale!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am
More pain, yay PP...not!
Worst portfolio EVER, none worse.
Gold will give up 5% on just talk of being hawkish. Think of an actual rate increase of a 1/16 of a point. Revist the 1980's if you doubt.

I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppbob » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:09 am

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am


Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
We have been in a bond bull market over that period as rates dropped from 15% down to essentially zero.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-ye ... eld-chart

As the saying goes, trends will remain until they stop.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 pm

modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:44 am
Kbg wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 am
modeljc wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:08 am
I got 25%, but the world does not believe in Gold as a hedge for anything!
That's because factually it isn't. The best we can say is it is non-correlated with anything which is not a bad characteristic for a portfolio asset.
Hard to take it to the bank in 1980 when it hit $850. Nice for a few months but only pain for the next 40 years vs other assets.
No, it did a really nice job/had a good run 2002-2012.

Finally, from 1/1/20 until now, gold beats every major US stock measurement (sharpe, CAGR, Max DD). That's a long time and at least 50% of the average investor's investing life span. However, if you split the time period in half the story is 180 between each period.

As mentioned, nice wind in the sails or an anchor.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:27 pm

Sold down to 5% today.
I won’t bitch about it anymore now.
Liberating!
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