Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Xan
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Xan » Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:30 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:53 pm
seajay wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:25 pm
The complexities of BC is just unnecessary clutter/risk.
This is precisely what I mean.

If anything, bitcoin has the minimum necessary complexity to achieve what it does so what I am trying to get you guys to do is to get off your ass and learn about it rather than trying to save yourself from the effort of trying because of silly excuses like it's too complicated.
It might be the minimum complexity to achieve what it does, but it's still much more complex than gold.

You're perfectly welcome to encourage us to learn about it, but I don't think that implying people are lazy and silly is likely to win converts.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Xan » Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:37 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:31 pm
But that is exactly what is happening.

Lazy, not silly.
Even if that's true, you're undermining your arguments.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by seajay » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:57 am

Blatant advertising/spamming of a vile ponzi system that clearly advances laundering. Similar to Tor in many ways. Feel no need to get of my ass and learn its intricacies as that just leads down a pathway where the great minds behind it will be confronted with even greater minds looking to compromise it. Ultimately that will lead to regulation whereby its primary utility is lost. The Avatar of the OP alone is a big clue.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by seajay » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:05 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:15 pm
You're doing yourself a disservice.

There's no need to take a stance on bitcoin bull or bear.

You simply need to break it down:

To answer the question: Assuming no one can take away your bitcoin, should you have an allocation to it?

1) Is it property?

2) Is it productive property?

3) Should you have an allocation to non-productive property?

4) What kinds of property should you own within that allocation?

5) How should you weight the different kinds of property within this allocation?


Once you have answered whether you should or should not have an allocation to it, you can then decide whether it is worth learning about whether the assumption that "no one can take away your bitcoin" is true or false.

Without convincing yourself that there is a point to learning about it, and the point is that IF the answer is that no one can take away your bitcoin then you should have an allocation to it, then you will always feel like it's a ponzi/scam/waste of time.
Therein lies the issue for me. I entrust only small amounts to Digital Security. The private key is in effect the lock which alone and across time is fallible. So you have to take additional steps and evolve those steps/measures over time - keep abreast of complex technologies. And that's just one side of the attack surface, on the other the state could attack it on the basis of it being commonly used for laundering and other illicit activities that could also see sudden total loss.

Again I'm in the I'd prefer a physical valued painting(s) over that of digital art type camp and feel no need to further investigate whether digital art might be comparable. Yes I could allocate a small part, perhaps no more than 5% to such alternatives, but that's just additional diversification that I opine isn't required, I invest to live, not live to invest. Learning about and keeping ahead, let alone up-with security technology is a confrontation I'd be more inclined to lose, frankly the opposition has and likely will continue to exhibit genius, more so when potentially massively financially rewarded for their efforts.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by seajay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:43 am

vincent_c wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:15 pm
The reason why I would like to engage in discussion here is because I believe there is an objective approach.

You mentioned that you would prefer a physical painting over the NFT equivalent.

That's a fair preference but it doesn't tell me that you have thought through the way to determine how much weight to allocate each kind of property. Of course I cannot argue with anyone who doesn't have an interest in optimizing their investments and I respect that some people enjoy this process more than others.
Maximizing rewards/wealth isn't the sole purpose of optimization. Consider someone with $10M wealth that spends $10K/month. People mostly invest surplus money today with a view to spending that wealth at a later date. They might anonymously buy a painting for $4M and drop the remainder $6M into a initial 50/50 stock index and physical gold assets and draw the $10K/month from that (otherwise just left as-is i.e. no rebalancing). Meeting and living with a new partner for a number of years might then see that relationship break down and where a claim for half of assets is made. Non awareness of a chunk of the wealth (art and gold) might see half of the stock value as a 'divorce bill' settlement cost. Using that above 2000 start date, recent end date link as a example 40% weighting of $22M combined stock/gold value = $4.4M settlement .... out of $22M combined stock/gold value plus whatever the painting purchased for $4M in 2000 might be worth and where the art and gold might have a very low footprint, no public paper or digital trail/footprint (just paper private records and the physical items rolled up/hidden somewhere).

Even with the greatest of efforts in contrast a digital based art and/or BC might have left a greater footprint. Perhaps a $10M+ additional amount play off between your understanding of the technology and anonymization/privacy issues versus teams of experts.

Fundamentally the simplicity of physical gold is vastly superior IMO to that of digital alternatives. Zero weighting to digital is appropriate as otherwise revelation of even a small amount of 'hiding' is more inclined to lead to assumptions of other actual or assumed hiding of assets. As a secondary firewall a simple witnessed paper record of gold and art having been gifted to your brother in 2001 is more inclined to be accepted than a claim of similar amounts of BC having been gifted (where I live there is no requirement to report or pay any taxes on gifts excepting in cases of death/estate taxation assessments where otherwise gifts within a number of years are reverted back into the giftors estate).
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by seajay » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:23 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:12 am
There are other (better) ways to arrange your affairs to protect your assets from creditors and divorce without having to compromise on investment returns. Same thing with tax efficiency.
Examples? (Without the complexities/risks of the likes of BitCoins).
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:53 am

the problem with prenups is courts only uphold them until they dont .

have a now disabled or sick spouse who can no longer work at their job and that prenup is usually over turned by a court
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:52 am

seajay wrote:
Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:57 am
Blatant advertising/spamming of a vile ponzi system that clearly advances laundering. Similar to Tor in many ways. Feel no need to get of my ass and learn its intricacies as that just leads down a pathway where the great minds behind it will be confronted with even greater minds looking to compromise it. Ultimately that will lead to regulation whereby its primary utility is lost. The Avatar of the OP alone is a big clue.
I offered a (thoughtful, I thought) series of links and info in response to your privacy concerns about way people are transacting privately in bitcoin and your responses are:

- spamming
- "vile ponzi"
- OP's avatar
- "I can dismiss bitcoin since this is the Gold section of the forum"

Doesn’t feel very intellectually honest.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:00 am

Xan wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:30 pm
It might be the minimum complexity to achieve what it does, but it's still much more complex than gold.
I think its unfair to look at gold at the "physical rock" high level summary and view bitcoin at the "look at the complicated codes and proof of work and ... details" low level details and then conclude bitcoin is "too complicated".

For example, look at the Chemistry, and Origin sections of the Gold wikipedia article. Gold is pretty damn complicated, it seems! In fact, from that entry it seems there is no human consensus on how gold is even created ("Gold is thought to have been produced"). Since we dont how how gold is created, should we just avoid it as an investment strategy?
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:50 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:25 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:01 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:46 pm
I think what this shows is that some people are willing to comment on topics and make definitive conclusions about something without actually having done any research into the subject matter. I believe everyone is entitled to their personal opinions but when it comes to facts, it would help to take an approach where you are inquisitive like, "please correct me if my understanding is wrong" rather than simply stating things as if they were facts or using blanket statements.
To be fair, Id be surprised if anyone on this forum knew about those tech I mentioned. That’s mostly the reason I posted it.
I'm with Xan
Out of the clutter find Simplicity - Albert Einstein
The complexities of BC is just unnecessary clutter/risk.
Given a nail (gold) a simple hammer (physical) works for me, even though there may be alternative complex gizmos that involve walking through a minefield to maybe do a similar job. Yes there may be experts that can better navigate the minefield, but even experts sooner or later can get caught short.

For me a blanket dismissal is reasonable given this is a PP forum Gold section.
"Gold is the second most popular international money."

"The U.S. dollar is the leading money of the world, and gold is its principal challenger. It hasn't always been that way, and it may not always be. Sufficient inflation in the U.S. could dethrone the dollar -- making way for gold or another currency to be king."

- Harry Browne - Why the Best Laid...

What is the risk of sticking ones head in the sand, w.r.t. the gold portion of the portfolio? If gold becomes demonetized, you'll still have the same quantity of gold. It will still have a good stock-to-flow ratio since it is difficult to mine. However, it won't perform how it's supposed to in the portfolio. Why?

Gold's value in the PP depends on people preferring it to the $USD in times of crisis and inflation. This is a property that is not intrinsic to gold and may change over time. If the world has adopted a harder money, you don't want to be left hoarding silver.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by vnatale » Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:00 pm

BITCOIN COULD BECOME WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, SAYS SENATOR RAND PAUL


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bit ... -rand-paul
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Kbg » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:06 pm

I thought this article very good. A good synopsis of a lot of different takes on BTC.

https://dualmomentum.net/2021/06/23/bit ... -approach/

A couple of interesting excerpts...

There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, of which 89% has already been mined. That leaves a circulating supply of 18.5 million bitcoin. About 3 million has been lost. Much of the rest is illiquid and held by HODLers. Glassnode estimates that 78% of the circulating bitcoin last December was illiquid. Only 4.2 million bitcoin were available for buying and selling. Liquidity goes up when the price of bitcoin goes down, but there is still less tradeable supply than many realize

There is also high volatility due to bitcoin’s concentration. According to the analytics firm Flipside Crypto, 2% of bitcoin addresses control 95% of bitcoin. Large holders can dramatically move bitcoin prices. They also raise concerns with the SEC about market manipulation. There is statistical evidence here of past manipulation.

Be nimble, be fast.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:37 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:00 pm
BITCOIN COULD BECOME WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, SAYS SENATOR RAND PAUL


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bit ... -rand-paul
Hah Hah!

"The government currencies are so unreliable — they're also fiat currencies. They're not backed by anything," Sen. Paul said."

And Bitcoin is backed by....????
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Xan » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:04 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:00 pm
BITCOIN COULD BECOME WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, SAYS SENATOR RAND PAUL


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bit ... -rand-paul
Hah Hah!

"The government currencies are so unreliable — they're also fiat currencies. They're not backed by anything," Sen. Paul said."

And Bitcoin is backed by....????
Without the full context, it could be that he's saying that neither the USD nor Bitcoin are backed by anything, and so the dollar (in some ways) isn't any more "real" than Bitcoin.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:32 pm

I read that 0.1% of Bitcoin miners control half of all mining capacity. This gives rise to the 51% problem. Meaning the network could be abused by a small cohort of miners. I’m not claiming knowledge of how. But you can search 51% Attack and read up.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by vnatale » Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:23 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:06 pm

I thought this article very good. A good synopsis of a lot of different takes on BTC.

https://dualmomentum.net/2021/06/23/bit ... -approach/

A couple of interesting excerpts...

There will never be more than 21 million bitcoin, of which 89% has already been mined. That leaves a circulating supply of 18.5 million bitcoin. About 3 million has been lost. Much of the rest is illiquid and held by HODLers. Glassnode estimates that 78% of the circulating bitcoin last December was illiquid. Only 4.2 million bitcoin were available for buying and selling. Liquidity goes up when the price of bitcoin goes down, but there is still less tradeable supply than many realize

There is also high volatility due to bitcoin’s concentration. According to the analytics firm Flipside Crypto, 2% of bitcoin addresses control 95% of bitcoin. Large holders can dramatically move bitcoin prices. They also raise concerns with the SEC about market manipulation. There is statistical evidence here of past manipulation.

Be nimble, be fast.


Excellent article....the two preceding paragraphs to your last paragraph above...

Eugene Fama says bitcoin should not exist. He thinks its value will drop to zero since it doesn’t have enough stability to serve as a unit of account.

Many who buy bitcoin know little about it. (Click here to learn how the protocol works). Most buy it motivated by fear of missing out (FOMO) when they see the price going up. They sell when the price falls, motivated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). This kind of uninformed trading exacerbates price volatility.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Jack Jones » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:32 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:04 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:00 pm
BITCOIN COULD BECOME WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, SAYS SENATOR RAND PAUL


https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bit ... -rand-paul
Hah Hah!

"The government currencies are so unreliable — they're also fiat currencies. They're not backed by anything," Sen. Paul said."

And Bitcoin is backed by....????
Without the full context, it could be that he's saying that neither the USD nor Bitcoin are backed by anything, and so the dollar (in some ways) isn't any more "real" than Bitcoin.
It's real like gold is. If you want Bitcoin or gold, you, a sovereign individual, can invest capital in mining equipment and expend energy to mine it, or pay an enterprising individual who has. They are backed by the capital and work required to produce them.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:34 am

Kbg wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:06 pm
There is also high volatility due to bitcoin’s concentration. According to the analytics firm Flipside Crypto, 2% of bitcoin addresses control 95% of bitcoin. Large holders can dramatically move bitcoin prices. They also raise concerns with the SEC about market manipulation. There is statistical evidence here of past manipulation.
Here is the issue with this sort of analysis:

- The 2% of bitcoin addresses that hold 95% of bitcoin are exchanges and custodians
- Related to the point above, addresses dont equate to entities in any way. For example, I could have 1000 BTC spread across 10,000 bitcoin addresses. Or 1 exchange address could have 1000 BTC which represents BTC held by 100,000 of its customers
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:36 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:23 pm
Eugene Fama says bitcoin should not exist. He thinks its value will drop to zero since it doesn’t have enough stability to serve as a unit of account.


This is pretty hilarious given Fama is the efficient market hypothesis guy.

Sorry Eugene the market knows something you dont!
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:47 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:32 pm
I read that 0.1% of Bitcoin miners control half of all mining capacity. This gives rise to the 51% problem. Meaning the network could be abused by a small cohort of miners. I’m not claiming knowledge of how. But you can search 51% Attack and read up.
Id be curious as to the source on this, sounds wildly wrong.

Also there is some nuance here, a couple points:

There is no way to know for sure which miner is mining which blocks as mining in bitcoin is anonymous. Anonymous mining (transaction processing) is critical for the decentralization of the network.

Also, there is a difference between Bitcoin MINERS and Bitcoin MINING POOLS. Bitcoin miners join Bitcoin mining pools of other miners to smooth out their BTC mining rewards (otherwise small miners might get no revenue for a year+ and then find one block reward after 18 months of mining, for example). Here is a chart of mining pools: https://btc.com/stats/pool

Pools voluntarily choose to identify themselves when they mine a block as a way of advertising how big their network of miners is to other potential miners.

Miners can join and leave pools with ease, instantly. So if there is misbehaving pool, or if a pool gets too big, things rapidly resolve.

I suppose in theory a miner could own 99% of the hashrate and just join many different pools to "pretend" they are not the owner of 99% of the bitcoin hashrate. So it is possible, but there is no evidence of this.

Clear as mud?
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:20 am

Jack Jones wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:32 am

It's real like gold is. If you want Bitcoin or gold, you, a sovereign individual, can invest capital in mining equipment and expend energy to mine it, or pay an enterprising individual who has. They are backed by the capital and work required to produce them.
I understand there are clear similarities between gold and bitcoin, on the energy needed to gain either.

However, I never really understood the pooh poohing by so many of "fiat" government money, especially the US, making it sound like the money is worth nothing. The US has gold, property, buildings, infrastructure, land, armies, etc. There's absolutely value that could be sold off to prop up the price of the dollar if needed.

Gold, on the other hand, if an alchemist figures out how to transmute sand into gold, its value goes to zero nearly instantly.

Bitcoin, I don't know. When quantum computing becomes more mainstream and it possibly becomes easier to hack into wallets and such, I could see value dropping like a rock.

Just some thoughts.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:32 am

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:24 am
If BTC is so market efficient, can one of you proponents ELI5 why the cost of buying, selling and holding BTC is so high compared to stocks?
Which exchange are you referencing?
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:35 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:20 am
However, I never really understood the pooh poohing by so many of "fiat" government money, especially the US, making it sound like the money is worth nothing. The US has gold, property, buildings, infrastructure, land, armies, etc. There's absolutely value that could be sold off to prop up the price of the dollar if needed.
Dollars have value because people believe they do. Just like anything else. If people start valuing dollars less (right or wrong I suppose), what would the mechanism be for the US to increase the value of the USD? Would the USG sell some BLM land to a private entity, and the act of taking those dollars off of the market would push up the dollar ever so slightly. Curious more than criticizing here.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:40 am

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:35 am
If I want to buy stocks, I open a brokerage at any of a dozen+ firms. Buying is free, holding is free, selling is free. All I need is a username and password.

Can any of that be said of BTC?
Im unclear, there are no line item transaction fees so its free? They make no money (on spread?, on selling your orders or whatnot)?

Fees are coming down in crypto with more competition in the space. But, I dont really have a horse in this race, and Im not sure how fees even came up actually. EMH isnt about fees or maybe Im missing something.
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Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:43 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:40 am
MangoMan wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:35 am
If I want to buy stocks, I open a brokerage at any of a dozen+ firms. Buying is free, holding is free, selling is free. All I need is a username and password.

Can any of that be said of BTC?
Im unclear, there are no line item transaction fees so its free? They make no money (on spread?, on selling your orders or whatnot)?

Fees are coming down in crypto with more competition in the space. But, I dont really have a horse in this race, and Im not sure how fees even came up actually. EMH isnt about fees or maybe Im missing something.
I suppose I can go nuclear in this "argument" and just say, I can buy BTC from a guy in an alley and pay $0.00 fees. I can also store BTC for $0.00 indefinitely. And likewise sell in an alley for $0.00. But yeah, not sure where we are going with this.
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