COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am

We have had over 500,000 covid deaths of all ages except kids , the bulk are older because this disease has an age curve for a few reasons not just being sickly prior .

That is more than three wars added up ...so I would hardly say the effect of covid is meh. The death rate is 10x to 20x what flu runs typically

510k deaths in a country of 328 million and almost 30 million cases many of which were severe as well as a good portion of the severe have permanent effects or very long term effects is a lot.

But don’t misunderstand, I am not saying the total shutdown made a lot of sense the way they did it
SomeDude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:45 am

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:51 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am
We have had over 500,000 covid deaths of all ages except kids , the bulk are older because this disease has an age curve for a few reasons not just being sickly prior .

That is more than three wars added up ...so I would hardly say the effect of covid is meh. The death rate is 10x to 20x what flu runs typically

510k deaths in a country of 328 million and almost 30 million cases many of which were severe as well as a good portion of the severe have permanent effects or very long term effects is a lot.

But don’t misunderstand, I am not saying the total shutdown made a lot of sense the way they did it
And I sympathize with anyone who was dreadfully ill, and/or lost a friend or family member because of it, truly and sincerely.

I just think the "death rates" are extremely over estimated. 30M cases means 30M people who tested positive. That is only a subset of the people who actually were positive. Many millions more were positive but never got tested for whatever reason. The people who did get tested, were more likely to be exhibiting symptoms, which means older or otherwise compromised or already in the hospital for another reason. 500k people haven't died of Covid. They are classified as "covid-related" because they tested positive AND died for whatever reason (including falling off ladders, car and motorcycle accidents, cancer, heart disease, etc).

30M positive tests means at LEAST 40M real positive people, maybe it means 60M or 80M. 500k deaths of this population is right in line with the mortality rate for the general population. This is even less concerning when you consider the normal mortality rate for people age 65 or higher is much higher than 1%.

The point of all this is I've done the math on other threads. I've issued the Covid-math challenge for anyone to explain how covid is causing excess deaths when the death rate is basically in-line with the general mortality rate. To me it looks like at worst it accelerated the deaths of people already likely to die within 12-24 months, at worst. And this sounds like the same as the flu.

As for it being deadlier than the flu, have we ever recorded people dying of cancer, heart disease, car accidents, falling off ladders, etc. as "flu-related"?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:59 pm

You can try downplaying it all you want .....it is what it is
stuper1
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1365
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 7:18 pm

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by stuper1 » Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:30 pm

Didn't hospitals get more money by labeling deaths as caused by Covid? You don't think that didn't skew the numbers? Follow the money.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:41 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:30 pm
Didn't hospitals get more money by labeling deaths as caused by Covid? You don't think that didn't skew the numbers? Follow the money.
Conspiracy theory. Nobody is motivated by money.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:12 am

SomeDude wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:51 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am
We have had over 500,000 covid deaths of all ages except kids , the bulk are older because this disease has an age curve for a few reasons not just being sickly prior .

That is more than three wars added up ...so I would hardly say the effect of covid is meh. The death rate is 10x to 20x what flu runs typically

510k deaths in a country of 328 million and almost 30 million cases many of which were severe as well as a good portion of the severe have permanent effects or very long term effects is a lot.

But don’t misunderstand, I am not saying the total shutdown made a lot of sense the way they did it
And I sympathize with anyone who was dreadfully ill, and/or lost a friend or family member because of it, truly and sincerely.

I just think the "death rates" are extremely over estimated. 30M cases means 30M people who tested positive. That is only a subset of the people who actually were positive. Many millions more were positive but never got tested for whatever reason. The people who did get tested, were more likely to be exhibiting symptoms, which means older or otherwise compromised or already in the hospital for another reason. 500k people haven't died of Covid. They are classified as "covid-related" because they tested positive AND died for whatever reason (including falling off ladders, car and motorcycle accidents, cancer, heart disease, etc).

30M positive tests means at LEAST 40M real positive people, maybe it means 60M or 80M. 500k deaths of this population is right in line with the mortality rate for the general population. This is even less concerning when you consider the normal mortality rate for people age 65 or higher is much higher than 1%.

The point of all this is I've done the math on other threads. I've issued the Covid-math challenge for anyone to explain how covid is causing excess deaths when the death rate is basically in-line with the general mortality rate. To me it looks like at worst it accelerated the deaths of people already likely to die within 12-24 months, at worst. And this sounds like the same as the flu.

As for it being deadlier than the flu, have we ever recorded people dying of cancer, heart disease, car accidents, falling off ladders, etc. as "flu-related"?
Most of us will die from heart disease or cancer...but we don’t can’t stop cancer by not breathing on each other , we don’t stop car crashes or heart disease by not breathing on each other ..so there is no comparison here to preventing covid deaths and serious illness
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:29 am

User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:55 am

Another anecdote. One of the funeral home owners in my hometown told my brother than he is worn out from dealing with the extra funeral load. And that there is a shortage of caskets nationwide. My hometown is 5 or 6 thousand population, semi rural.

Only one anecdote but it certainly sounds like there are excess deaths. However the casket shortage could be partly due to the other challenges that many manufacturers are encountering during the lockdowns.
Last edited by I Shrugged on Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1265
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by glennds » Sun Feb 28, 2021 7:56 am

SomeDude wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:51 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:46 am
We have had over 500,000 covid deaths of all ages except kids , the bulk are older because this disease has an age curve for a few reasons not just being sickly prior .

That is more than three wars added up ...so I would hardly say the effect of covid is meh. The death rate is 10x to 20x what flu runs typically

510k deaths in a country of 328 million and almost 30 million cases many of which were severe as well as a good portion of the severe have permanent effects or very long term effects is a lot.

But don’t misunderstand, I am not saying the total shutdown made a lot of sense the way they did it
And I sympathize with anyone who was dreadfully ill, and/or lost a friend or family member because of it, truly and sincerely.

I just think the "death rates" are extremely over estimated. 30M cases means 30M people who tested positive. That is only a subset of the people who actually were positive. Many millions more were positive but never got tested for whatever reason. The people who did get tested, were more likely to be exhibiting symptoms, which means older or otherwise compromised or already in the hospital for another reason. 500k people haven't died of Covid. They are classified as "covid-related" because they tested positive AND died for whatever reason (including falling off ladders, car and motorcycle accidents, cancer, heart disease, etc).

30M positive tests means at LEAST 40M real positive people, maybe it means 60M or 80M. 500k deaths of this population is right in line with the mortality rate for the general population. This is even less concerning when you consider the normal mortality rate for people age 65 or higher is much higher than 1%.

The point of all this is I've done the math on other threads. I've issued the Covid-math challenge for anyone to explain how covid is causing excess deaths when the death rate is basically in-line with the general mortality rate. To me it looks like at worst it accelerated the deaths of people already likely to die within 12-24 months, at worst. And this sounds like the same as the flu.

As for it being deadlier than the flu, have we ever recorded people dying of cancer, heart disease, car accidents, falling off ladders, etc. as "flu-related"?
I have wondered this same question, and from what I can find, total deaths in the US were about 300,000-400,000 higher in 2020 vs prior years. It seems reasonable to assume Covid had a part of this, but how much I cannot say. Here is one website that presents statistics, but there are many others: https://usafacts.org/articles/prelimina ... s-age-flu/

Of course, I am not defending nor commenting on the way Covid has been handled in the US or the politics of it or anything like that. But I think it is unreasonable for anyone to call Covid a nothingburger, or anything less than a legitimate health pandemic and a cause (or accelerant) of death that otherwise would not have happened for a meaningful number of people. Whether it's been exaggerated or not is subjective.

I do think you are right about the fact that the number of people who have had it is probably pretty large because of the number of asymptomatics or low symptom cases that never got tested. So the universe of infected is not really known. And if your point is that as a result, the fatality % rate of Covid is less than currently reported, it's hard to disagree.
WiseOne
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2692
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:08 am

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by WiseOne » Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:29 am

I'm with SomeDude on this one. Many of those dying of COVID would have died within a year anyway.

40% of the deaths are in the nursing home population, last I checked. A lot of the rest were in skilled nursing or group home facilities, or were being cared for at home by health aides & family. Nursing home stays average 2.5 years, so say the actuaries who keep track of this for disability insurance purposes. Since there's only one way to leave a nursing home (i.e. what we call "celestial discharge"), that means that the average nursing home resident has a life expectancy of a bit over a year.

I would guess that the life expectancy of those who actually died of COVID was less than that, since presumably the sickest nursing home patients would be most vulnerable. And, the one paper I found that asked the rather sensible question of the average amount of life lost due to COVID (rather than the oversimplistic raw death counts) came up with this answer: 6 months.
SomeDude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:45 am

Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:22 am

Thanks for helping shed light on it WiseOne with some numbers.

We should then expect the number of deaths for all reasons for 2020-2022 to be virtually identical to the prior 3 years and covid spikes will be a tiny blip.

The amount of lives destroyed by the government mandates will be many many times greater than by COVID.
Post Reply