mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

No reason not to be ... I worry more about Tlt being a weight than I do gold

[buddtholomew]

Me too; I don’t hold LTT anymore but I’m sure their time will come once again.

[mathjak107]

Being so close to 2% I figured It was a better looking picture than when they were 50% less ...so I got back in .

Right now stocks are getting all the love but I think once stocks stumble the safety assets will flourish.

I can still average down as they fall from the 500k Mark but as of now 500k in each is about as much as I want in it ...I still have 7 figures in cash not counting the pp proxy position.

But at this point nothing interests me.. I closed out my 100% equities position the other day

[Kriegsspiel]

Ok sure, but how'd you do with GME?

[mathjak107]

Didn’t bother to buy it or amc ...just to manipulated .. I was watching amc all day and said the heck with it ..

[Don]

Being so close to 2% I figured It was a better looking picture than when they were 50% less ...so I got back in .

Right now stocks are getting all the love but I think once stocks stumble the safety assets will flourish.

I can still average down as they fall from the 500k Mark but as of now 500k in each is about as much as I want in it ...I still have 7 figures in cash not counting the pp proxy position.

But at this point nothing interests me.. I closed out my 100% equities position the other day

Where are you keeping your cash?

[Mark Leavy]

Where are you keeping your cash?

Specifically, which drawer?

[mathjak107]

Bil , vgsh , fdlxx and promos at banks

[amdda01]

No reason not to be ... I worry more about Tlt being a weight than I do gold

MJ,
I think your instincts are spot-on; TLT can't stop tanking.

[mathjak107]

I hope it wasn’t a mistake taking a position...

But with stocks seeming unstoppable Tlt should be falling and gold stalling.

I am down in gold less then 1% and under 2% in Tlt but dollar wise with such a big position it is a lot in dollars

[Vil]

Today, there are *huge* volume spikes (compared to previous days, even months and years) in most of the Bond ETFs hosted in Europe with no apparent price movements. Some bank/hedge fund is dumping heavily (billions). Quite interested in how this will unfold...

[Vil]

Tlt should be falling

Correct me if I am wrong, but TLT is hovering around the 150 level, it tested this level mid-Jan and was also important support level during the 24-26 Feb 2020 period, and previously a major resistance in mid August 2019 (a tad below it though)..
If it breaks this support - guess it might be game over for quite a while (at least from TA perspective) ?

[amdda01]

Holy crap - TLT crash 'n burn.

[mathjak107]

It is now down 1.98% since I bought ...not great but not to bad considering how far it came down since the highs.

It was 179.70...

That is almost a 17% drop ...that is pretty close to a bear market

[mathjak107]

When you get gold and tlt dropping together they can create nasty losses in dollars ...it’s funny but these are the kinds of daily drops in dollars I was hoping to avoid ..I think Tlt is now down about 2% from where I bought and Gld 3%.

That is likely around 25k in less than a week

[Kriegsspiel]

Can't win 'em all, broski.

[mathjak107]

Yep , the pp is just as much a roll of the dice as anything else

[dualstow]

Yep , the pp is just as much a roll of the dice as anything else

No

[Smith1776]

[mathjak107]

A bear market in both Tlt and Gld at the same time as cash stalls out says otherwise

[Vil]

I am not part of the PP cult, but I (a sort of) like it. Though I believe we will suffer from the recency bias for a while, following the abnormal returns in 2020, when we had all assets hitting highs at the same time .. So, I consider the current period as part of the revert to the mean

[mathjak107]

Assets generally revert to the means but highly interest sensitive assets may not cycle like that for very very long periods of time .. a 40 year bull in bonds had little more than a few speed bumps over that time frame and no real extended bond bear markets .

We don’t know what to expect bouncing off near zero and as I always say rising rates can be kryptonite to the pp and all the qualities we liked about it may become negatives as interest rate sensitive assets unwind together .

Like I said I hope me changing over to the pp wasn’t a mistake....my old models I used see nothing like the volatility in the pp being very interest rate insensitive

[dualstow]

Here we go again, Loki. If you’re arguing that the pp is not perfectly impenetrable, I’m with you. If you’re stating that daytrading the individual pp assets is as risky as everything else, fine.
But to say that the pp is “as risky as everything else” — lowering risk is the whole point of the portfolio. We’d all be buying GME otherwise.

[mathjak107]

Well going forward we will need to see just how much lower risk the pp pans out to be ..these are unprecedented times and the past is the past .

Until we see where rates top jury is out..so far my old 25% equity model which I stopped using for the pp is about 25k higher as my pp fell almost 30k in a week.

I will give it time , I just hope it wasn’t a mistake

[dualstow]

....these are unprecedented times and the past is the past .

If only there were an agnostic portfolio that didn’t count on a single specific economic condition...