Coronavirus General Discussion

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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi »

doodle wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:30 am I think part of the issue is hospital capacity. This is a legitimate concern if many recoveries are due to improving treatment options. Would Trump or Christie have lived if they hadn't had very prompt hospital treatment? That's a good question. If the case numbers climb to a point that prevents treatment then our death numbers could increase significantly. For that reason I think it's important to monitor case numbers and hospital capacity along with excess death stats. That will give us a pretty clear picture of how to manage this and what our outcomes look like.
I don't disagree with what you say, my only gripe is turning on the news now is like groundhog day from the last two times. "XX hospital is over 80% capacity...may hit limits within 2 weeks. YY had to send people to a different hospital for an ICU bed, etc."

And then the last two times, the surges basically petered out before almost any of the excess beds were needed.

Case in point below (circling is not me). Why the over the top peddling of fear? I had to turn the same lady off this morning while she was being interviewed because she was chastising people for not following the rules. In my opinion, IL (at least around Chicago) is very much following rules. And yet cases continue to rise. I don't know what to say to that other than the measures put in place maybe really don't do a lot, and the only thing that would is a 100% lockdown, in your home, for 2 weeks. Which is impossible, so I then have to default more to a let's do sensible precautions and deal with the hospitalizations the best we can?

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle »

Because humans have a love affair with fear peddling media. Calamity and disaster sells....that's why it's important to have leadership that is good at formulating and communicating plans. The latest I heard from Trump in North Carolina is that it's in the 'bosses' hands.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi »

Libertarian666 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.
Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise »

New rule: Anytime someone is tested for SARS-CoV-2, they should also be tested for the flu.

Agreed?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy »

doodle wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?
Because then Trump would win.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Riddle me this Batmen & Batgirls...I happen to be on an extended business trip in Korea at this very moment. Got to spend two fun filled weeks in my hotel room and had to report my health stats once a day for 14 days before I could leave and begin my business. EVERYONE here is wearing masks and there are very few restrictions. The population here is about 1/5th the US (and way more dense) so an equivalent daily case rate would be about 12.5K...and last week when I checked there were 60 new cases with a good portion being foreigners.

Personally, I think as US citizens we just need to look at ourselves in the mirror and say we completely suck at being civic minded. And I think we also have to admit that continuous tearing down of government agencies has turned former world centers of excellence (FAA and CDC) into compromised entities that will no longer set the agenda and rules for much of the rest of the world.

This would be known as a loss of soft power. Global politics abhors a power vacuum. So long as we all are cool with China and/or the EU becoming the rule setters that US businesses will have to abide by when competing globally, rock on folks. (Probably ain't going to end how you think it is though.)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne »

Cortopassi wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.
Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.
Well, the science (see WHO report from 2019 that I previously posted) has already said that masks worn by the general public make somewhere between little to no difference in limiting viral spread. At best it's a small effect. And we see no evidence that lockdowns accomplish much either.

Regarding the difference between "positive tests", "cases" and clinically significant outcomes, here's a snapshot of the graph of deaths over time in Europe going back several years. Notice the transient large bump early this year, which no one is contesting. Since then though....I say again, if all PCR testing and media panic stopped immediately, would you even know that anything out of the ordinary is going on? Saying that "hospitalizations are increasing" is just dumb, because they ALWAYS increase at this time. It's flu season. Do you see the annual cycles? What this is saying is that all the testing is just a giant waste of resources right now.

BTW I acknowledge that the deaths are up around the line that marks the difference between normal and excess deaths. That could easily be explained by the negative health effects of the lockdowns plus the relatively small number of ongoing severe COVID cases. However, it's not consistent enough to be calling this an "epidemic" still less a "pandemic".

Again though I don't attribute this to any nefarious scheme. As Robert Heinlein once said (paraphrasing P.T. Barnum), Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

Here's the source of the chart:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale »

Kbg wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:00 am Riddle me this Batmen & Batgirls...I happen to be on an extended business trip in Korea at this very moment. Got to spend two fun filled weeks in my hotel room and had to report my health stats once a day for 14 days before I could leave and begin my business. EVERYONE here is wearing masks and there are very few restrictions. The population here is about 1/5th the US (and way more dense) so an equivalent daily case rate would be about 12.5K...and last week when I checked there were 60 new cases with a good portion being foreigners.

Personally, I think as US citizens we just need to look at ourselves in the mirror and say we completely suck at being civic minded. And I think we also have to admit that continuous tearing down of government agencies has turned former world centers of excellence (FAA and CDC) into compromised entities that will no longer set the agenda and rules for much of the rest of the world.

This would be known as a loss of soft power. Global politics abhors a power vacuum. So long as we all are cool with China and/or the EU becoming the rule setters that US businesses will have to abide by when competing globally, rock on folks. (Probably ain't going to end how you think it is though.)
As usual, your analysis seems right on to me!

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Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne »

I'd say the million dollar question is how much testing are they doing? who are they testing? And how accurate is their case reporting? If only testing active cases with moderate to severe clinical signs of COVID, then I'd say their numbers are well in line with what we are seeing here in the US, where testing is far more indiscriminate.

Leaving aside the mask issue (since we already know their effect is minimal), it seems their approach involves "few restrictions" apart from having you quarantine for 2 weeks. New York currently is far stricter than this. We are still in partial lockdown, and anyone coming in from a very long list of states & international locations has to quarantine for 2 weeks.

So what exactly is the source of your complaint?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle »

WiseOne wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:34 am
Cortopassi wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.
Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.
Well, the science (see WHO report from 2019 that I previously posted) has already said that masks worn by the general public make somewhere between little to no difference in limiting viral spread. At best it's a small effect. And we see no evidence that lockdowns accomplish much either.

Regarding the difference between "positive tests", "cases" and clinically significant outcomes, here's a snapshot of the graph of deaths over time in Europe going back several years. Notice the transient large bump early this year, which no one is contesting. Since then though....I say again, if all PCR testing and media panic stopped immediately, would you even know that anything out of the ordinary is going on? Saying that "hospitalizations are increasing" is just dumb, because they ALWAYS increase at this time. It's flu season. Do you see the annual cycles? What this is saying is that all the testing is just a giant waste of resources right now.

BTW I acknowledge that the deaths are up around the line that marks the difference between normal and excess deaths. That could easily be explained by the negative health effects of the lockdowns plus the relatively small number of ongoing severe COVID cases. However, it's not consistent enough to be calling this an "epidemic" still less a "pandemic".

Again though I don't attribute this to any nefarious scheme. As Robert Heinlein once said (paraphrasing P.T. Barnum), Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

Here's the source of the chart:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
The data I've seen is that the US as of September was running about 280k excess deaths of which approx 210k had been attributed to covid. So somewhere in the neighborhood of about 30-35k excess deaths per month since the start of the pandemic.

How does one square those numbers with South Korea where no significant excess mortality has been recorded through 2020 and I think less than 500 deaths due to covid have been recorded?

Our country has done a shitty job dealing with this pandemic.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi »

MangoMan wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:43 pm Emails, Secret Report Show Politics Of Science Guiding Pritzker
Gov. J.B. Pritzker keeps telling Illinoisans that his coronavirus mitigation efforts are guided by science.

"Science twice removed" might be closer to the truth, public records show.

After combing though hundreds of pages of emails and a confidential coronavirus report obtained through the spoils of another man's Freedom of Information request, the big takeaway is that scientists advising Pritzker say coronavirus test positivity rates that guide his pandemic response are unreliable.

That's not an opinion.
And the lockdowns continue.
But the attitudes all over are shifting

https://reason.com/2020/10/28/a-new-rou ... rebellion/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne »

Another video from Ivor Cummins debunking COVID mythology that is VERY WELL worth your time to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbtGd70-Ow

Highly recommended. It summarizes beautifully the arguments that the pandemic is long over, lockdowns and masks are pointless etc. And it specifically answers the types of comments I see posted here in the wake of my posts arguing from the logic/science perspective.

At the end there's a bit of a libertarian take on the general trend toward oppression and top-down government controls. I share those concerns. Plus I'm concerned that trend will accelerate if Biden is elected, and more so if the Senate changes to Democratic control.

I like this guy a lot....all facts, no innuendo, and all logically and calmly presented. A refreshing departure from the hysterical headlines we see every day from the media.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/sensible ... urce=email

Any comments on this article published in the Imprimus, Hillsdale College, especially from WiseOne?

Secondly, that was a very informative video that WiseOne recommended. Thank you.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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WiseOne wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:11 am Another video from Ivor Cummins debunking COVID mythology that is VERY WELL worth your time to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbtGd70-Ow

Highly recommended. It summarizes beautifully the arguments that the pandemic is long over, lockdowns and masks are pointless etc. And it specifically answers the types of comments I see posted here in the wake of my posts arguing from the logic/science perspective.

At the end there's a bit of a libertarian take on the general trend toward oppression and top-down government controls. I share those concerns. Plus I'm concerned that trend will accelerate if Biden is elected, and more so if the Senate changes to Democratic control.

I like this guy a lot....all facts, no innuendo, and all logically and calmly presented. A refreshing departure from the hysterical headlines we see every day from the media.
All facts? Evidently not...and some cherry picking to boot. We love people who validate our own beliefs and opinions. It's comforting to have someone tell us why we were right all along.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post ... iewpoints
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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doodle wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:44 pm
WiseOne wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:11 am Another video from Ivor Cummins debunking COVID mythology that is VERY WELL worth your time to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbtGd70-Ow

Highly recommended. It summarizes beautifully the arguments that the pandemic is long over, lockdowns and masks are pointless etc. And it specifically answers the types of comments I see posted here in the wake of my posts arguing from the logic/science perspective.

At the end there's a bit of a libertarian take on the general trend toward oppression and top-down government controls. I share those concerns. Plus I'm concerned that trend will accelerate if Biden is elected, and more so if the Senate changes to Democratic control.

I like this guy a lot....all facts, no innuendo, and all logically and calmly presented. A refreshing departure from the hysterical headlines we see every day from the media.
All facts? Evidently not...and some cherry picking to boot. We love people who validate our own beliefs and opinions. It's comforting to have someone tell us why we were right all along.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post ... iewpoints
Hey, when you’re right, you’re right - in all meanings of the word. Otherwise you’re just a legend in your own mind. 😇
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy »

Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Maddy wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.
Like Dr. Fauci?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Maddy wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.
TDS is a terrible affliction.
We have several candidates for "TDS poster child" right on this board.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Enough, Doodle. You've gone way beyond anything that remotely resembles logical argument and are now just hurling insults at anybody who dares disagree with you. If you have some reason to question WiseOne's credentials or intelligence, let's hear it. She, of all people, has earned her reputation on this board for being a consummately critical thinker and a straight shooter. You, by contrast, are just looking silly.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:00 pm
Maddy wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.
TDS is a terrible affliction.
We have several candidates for "TDS poster child" right on this board.
Some of us here think of this idiom: " the pot calling the kettle black"--"A situation in which a person accuses someone of or criticizes someone for something that they themselves are guilty of."

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Maddy wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:01 pm Enough, Doodle. You've gone way beyond anything that remotely resembles logical argument and are now just hurling insults at anybody who dares disagree with you. If you have some reason to question WiseOne's credentials or intelligence, let's hear it. She, of all people, has earned her reputation on this board for being a consummately critical thinker and a straight shooter. You, by contrast, are just looking silly.
I blocked him long ago for that same type of behavior. I recommend the same to anyone else who wants to have a happier time reading this board.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

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Libertarian666 wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:06 pm
Maddy wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:01 pm Enough, Doodle. You've gone way beyond anything that remotely resembles logical argument and are now just hurling insults at anybody who dares disagree with you. If you have some reason to question WiseOne's credentials or intelligence, let's hear it. She, of all people, has earned her reputation on this board for being a consummately critical thinker and a straight shooter. You, by contrast, are just looking silly.
I blocked him long ago for that same type of behavior. I recommend the same to anyone else who wants to have a happier time reading this board.
Yes, Techno apparently is an advocate of cancel culture. Sorry to offend your feelings....I thought Trumspters didn't have those.

I posted a link to an analysis of the argument that WiseOne posted and drew attention to the hypocrisy of making an appeal to authority based on WiseOne's credentials while dismissing very experienced clinical experts like Fauci. If you consider that insulting then maybe you need to grow some thicker skin.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne »

Thanks for the shout-out Maddy!

To anyone who is still listening....I actually came to the same conclusions as Ivor Cummins did independently, by examining data & literature myself. The research I did wasn't as extensive as what Cummins presents in the video, which includes long lists of papers gleaned from years of research - mainly due to lack of time. (it blows my mind that anyone would call this "cherry picking"). Ivor Cummins' special talent is combining his extensive research with outstanding presentation skills, which is why I offer up his videos instead of trying to explain the concepts myself.

Doodle, perhaps you could offer up a refutation that consists of something other than "I don't believe it therefore it can't be true"? i.e. is there a FACT in the video that you can refute? Because, if you can't refute the facts then the logical conclusions of those facts remain standing. You may be upset about that, but that says more about you than about the science.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy »

Does anyone here follow Chris Martenson? He's an economist/toxicologist who for many months through the spring and early summer put out one oh-so-serious presentation after another about the "unprecedented" CoVid threat. It made me so exasperated that I tuned him out for several months. It seems that at some point during that time, he, also, began to doubt the official narrative. Now he's putting out videos that not only debunk the narrative, but that "connect the dots" in the big picture. You know, you have to give him a lot of credit for doing a 180 like that when he ultimately realized he had been misled.

Take a look at what he's got a vice grip on today: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... we-realize
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