[COF] The one that got away - chance to get back together?

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GT
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[COF] The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am

I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:37 am

I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:50 am

pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:37 am
I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
Agree - there is some (a lot of) emotional bias going on

I do feel the company is solid and the original CEO / founder from 1994 is still running the show
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:00 pm

I was granted Schlumberger RSUs worth $220,000 at the time of the grant, but then sold them for $180,000 when I vested due to the 2015 oil collapse. I thought it might be fun to re-buy the shares for 90% off someday, for $22,000. It's almost there.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by vnatale » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:00 pm
I was granted Schlumberger RSUs worth $220,000 at the time of the grant, but then sold them for $180,000 when I vested due to the 2015 oil collapse. I thought it might be fun to re-buy the shares for 90% off someday, for $22,000. It's almost there.
When I was the CFO of a company that went public, the shares I had paid $7,000 were worth $250,000 the day we went public.

About two to three years later that investment became a $7,000 long-term capital loss.

VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by Dieter » Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:03 pm

GT wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am
I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
A small play, sure, have fun with it.

10% of your portfolio? Um....
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:10 am

Dieter wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:03 pm
GT wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am
I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
A small play, sure, have fun with it.

10% of your portfolio? Um....
Yes - small play - it is gambling
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:43 am

I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit. 😭

Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:00 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:43 am
I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit. 😭

Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
What did you do with the stock -buy hold or sell
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:16 am

I’m holding it. The only reason I’m not buying more is because I’m trickling into VTSAX (total u.s. market) right now, and virtually nothing else.

I can’t take advantage of tax loss harvesting, and I see no point in selling at a loss. I still think of it as a quality company.
Not a very nuanced take, I know. :D But, as in your case, I don’t hold a lot of it. I believe the odds are good enough that it will be higher when I’m no longer in the accumulation phase.

Or it will be acquired by one of the behemoths, which would also be fine.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am

Up 11% this morning.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am
Up 11% this morning.
Nice!! at the beginning of the month it was 44.68 - 70.31 as of today

Now when to sell or do I buy more - crazy - I hate it

I would never make it as a stock picker -
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by pmward » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:25 am

GT wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am
Up 11% this morning.
Nice!! at the beginning of the month it was 44.68 - 70.31 as of today

Now when to sell or do I buy more - crazy - I hate it

I would never make it as a stock picker -
When you have a big winner like that, it's best to look at your position like a trend follower. You want to use some form of a trailing stop. An easy way is to look at the 20 day moving average. The next time the stock goes down to it's 20 day moving average, buy. If it bounces off of it, you hold until the next test. When/if the stock closes below the 20 day moving average (I would probably give it about a 1-2% buffer below the 20 day SMA before you sell to avoid whipsaw), sell it all. Until it closes below the 20 day SMA, let 'er ride.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Fri May 01, 2020 9:21 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:25 am
GT wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am
Up 11% this morning.
Nice!! at the beginning of the month it was 44.68 - 70.31 as of today

Now when to sell or do I buy more - crazy - I hate it

I would never make it as a stock picker -
When you have a big winner like that, it's best to look at your position like a trend follower. You want to use some form of a trailing stop. An easy way is to look at the 20 day moving average. The next time the stock goes down to it's 20 day moving average, buy. If it bounces off of it, you hold until the next test. When/if the stock closes below the 20 day moving average (I would probably give it about a 1-2% buffer below the 20 day SMA before you sell to avoid whipsaw), sell it all. Until it closes below the 20 day SMA, let 'er ride.
-Nice - Thank you
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri May 22, 2020 10:41 am

Dividends for COF came in yesterday.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:41 am
Dividends for COF came in yesterday.
.40 a share - looks like the same dividend payout since 2015

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... nd-history

I always struggle with price appreciation versus dividend yield

The amateur stock picker in me would rather just see the stock ticker go up
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Tue May 26, 2020 10:58 am

GT wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am
dualstow wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:41 am
Dividends for COF came in yesterday.
.40 a share - looks like the same dividend payout since 2015

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... nd-history

I always struggle with price appreciation versus dividend yield

The amateur stock picker in me would rather just see the stock ticker go up
Yeah, it's not a great dividend raiser, especially for a bank.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:50 am

COF Seems to be cominng back along with other banks. I bought some more shares a few days ago while selling other things. It’s the only bank I own, outside of VIMAX (mid-cap index)
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:02 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:50 am
COF Seems to be cominng back along with other banks. I bought some more shares a few days ago while selling other things. It’s the only bank I own, outside of VIMAX (mid-cap index)
I had a fantasy football draft with some of my old COF peers - I told them to get the stock back up to 100 - Not that they have any control on the stock price but it did make for a good laugh.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:01 pm

O0 Down today, with most everything else.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:45 pm

@GT - FYI I did unload some shares at $80 today, per a limit order that triggered.
i don't feel great about banks.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:37 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:45 pm
@GT - FYI I did unload some shares at $80 today, per a limit order that triggered.
i don't feel great about banks.
Sure you did well on the transaction - now if you had sold at the 2020 low point of $42.. not so much
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:05 am

‘course capital one has been on a tear since I sold some shares. O0
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:05 am
‘course capital one has been on a tear since I sold some shares. O0
always how it works - credit card company's have some of the biggest stock swings since they own so much debt - well they call it outstanding loans and managed credit risk. When times are perceived to be positive the interest payments and late fees from subprime account are addicting - when times look uncertain, loan default risk kills the stock price in the short term.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:08 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:05 am
‘course capital one has been on a tear since I sold some shares. O0
$112.00 as of today - I need to find another stock to rebalance into...
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