Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Operationally, what you are proposing would be frowned upon by I think almost everyone.
1) You'd have to infect 200+million, and...
2) How do you do that? Seriously? Come to the infection site so someone can cough on you? Are you culturing it and giving people shots? So basically that is a Covid shot, why would that be available in those kind of numbers in that short of a time when we can't even mass produce a vaccine that fast?
No, just let the virus spread naturally among people who are interacting normally. Every big party, concert, dance, wedding, church service, etc. would be a "super-spreader" event, so it wouldn't take long for most people to be exposed.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
3) In 1-2 months?
Admittedly, 1-2 months is probably overoptimistic. Looking at
Sweden's Covid-1984 death curve as an example, it looks like their deaths ramped up to a peak then dropped back to near-zero in about four months. Even NY, which locked down during the ramp-up, reached peak and tapered off to near-zero in about 3-4 months.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
4) What's the age cutoff?
5) Health cutoff?
Hard cutoffs don't make much sense, at least for age, since risk varies smoothly with age. So the government health officials could provide the estimated risk for various age/comorbidity groups, then individuals could make their own decisions based on their risk level and risk tolerance.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
6) Almost guaranteed to overwhelm hospitals, even if 99% are asymptomatic, that's 2,000,000 people needing hospitalization.
I'm wondering if you're fully aware of the huge fraction of Covid-1984 hospitalizations and deaths that have come from the extremely high-risk category (very old and/or very sick/frail). If most of those people are protected while the young and healthy build herd immunity, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
I'm interested in realistic scenarios. Right now, the only one that unfortunately seems viable is getting a vaccine.
It's interesting that you consider my approach (which we could take starting today) to be less realistic than an effective vaccine that
might materialize but definitely isn't a sure thing.