Coronavirus General Discussion

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Tortoise
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:28 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Operationally, what you are proposing would be frowned upon by I think almost everyone.

1) You'd have to infect 200+million, and...
2) How do you do that? Seriously? Come to the infection site so someone can cough on you? Are you culturing it and giving people shots? So basically that is a Covid shot, why would that be available in those kind of numbers in that short of a time when we can't even mass produce a vaccine that fast?
No, just let the virus spread naturally among people who are interacting normally. Every big party, concert, dance, wedding, church service, etc. would be a "super-spreader" event, so it wouldn't take long for most people to be exposed.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
3) In 1-2 months?
Admittedly, 1-2 months is probably overoptimistic. Looking at Sweden's Covid-1984 death curve as an example, it looks like their deaths ramped up to a peak then dropped back to near-zero in about four months. Even NY, which locked down during the ramp-up, reached peak and tapered off to near-zero in about 3-4 months.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
4) What's the age cutoff?
5) Health cutoff?
Hard cutoffs don't make much sense, at least for age, since risk varies smoothly with age. So the government health officials could provide the estimated risk for various age/comorbidity groups, then individuals could make their own decisions based on their risk level and risk tolerance.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
6) Almost guaranteed to overwhelm hospitals, even if 99% are asymptomatic, that's 2,000,000 people needing hospitalization.
I'm wondering if you're fully aware of the huge fraction of Covid-1984 hospitalizations and deaths that have come from the extremely high-risk category (very old and/or very sick/frail). If most of those people are protected while the young and healthy build herd immunity, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
I'm interested in realistic scenarios. Right now, the only one that unfortunately seems viable is getting a vaccine.
It's interesting that you consider my approach (which we could take starting today) to be less realistic than an effective vaccine that might materialize but definitely isn't a sure thing.
Last edited by Tortoise on Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:29 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:46 pm
doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:07 pm
But at what point will people listen to experts? How do we decide when to turn over our limited understanding to people who maybe know a bit more about this subject? What is the point of spending your life and time studying viruses and how to deal with them if when you do everyone just says, fuck off, I'll decide for myself? What's the point of anyone studying anything if all we listen to is our parties political leaders and what we read on the internet?
Who are the experts? No one seems to agree on much of anything, and even when they do, they keep flip flopping on policy recommendations. The WHO now says lockdowns were/are a mistake.
Bingo. There is no unified, monolithic front of experts. The experts disagree, so why would the general public be expected to agree?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:27 pm
Doodle, throwing up your hands about arguing with libertarians is a copout. You say that if government or society bears the costs of some personal choice, preference or habit, then the government is right to ban it. When obvious applications are pointed out, you cry foul. Come on.

I'm sorry, I don't follow.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:26 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:29 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:46 pm
doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:07 pm
But at what point will people listen to experts? How do we decide when to turn over our limited understanding to people who maybe know a bit more about this subject? What is the point of spending your life and time studying viruses and how to deal with them if when you do everyone just says, fuck off, I'll decide for myself? What's the point of anyone studying anything if all we listen to is our parties political leaders and what we read on the internet?
Who are the experts? No one seems to agree on much of anything, and even when they do, they keep flip flopping on policy recommendations. The WHO now says lockdowns were/are a mistake.
Bingo. There is no unified, monolithic front of experts. The experts disagree, so why would the general public be expected to agree?
The strategy to dealing with experts on any topic seems to insert an element of doubt or the appearance of disagreement where there really isn't one. The same strategy is always used whether it is tobacco, human induced climate change, or face masks. Fauci has been constantly quoted as flip flopping by the right wing media. I would argue that for those incensed about the disingenuous misinterpretations of Trump's words, should be equally annoyed by how the right has employed the same tactics with Fauci. Besides, as data changes so do responses..that is natural to unfolding and evolving situations. In his words:

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs and masks for the health providers who are putting themselves in harm's way every day to take care of sick people," Fauci told O'Donnell.


"When it became clear that the infection could be spread by asymptomatic carriers who don't know they're infected, that made it very clear that we had to strongly recommend masks," he said.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:39 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:28 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Operationally, what you are proposing would be frowned upon by I think almost everyone.

1) You'd have to infect 200+million, and...
2) How do you do that? Seriously? Come to the infection site so someone can cough on you? Are you culturing it and giving people shots? So basically that is a Covid shot, why would that be available in those kind of numbers in that short of a time when we can't even mass produce a vaccine that fast?
No, just let the virus spread naturally among people who are interacting normally. Every big party, concert, dance, wedding, church service, etc. would be a "super-spreader" event, so it wouldn't take long for most people to be exposed.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
3) In 1-2 months?
Admittedly, 1-2 months is probably overoptimistic. Looking at Sweden's Covid-1984 death curve as an example, it looks like their deaths ramped up to a peak then dropped back to near-zero in about four months. Even NY, which locked down during the ramp-up, reached peak and tapered off to near-zero in about 3-4 months.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
4) What's the age cutoff?
5) Health cutoff?
Hard cutoffs don't make much sense, at least for age, since risk varies smoothly with age. So the government health officials could provide the estimated risk for various age/comorbidity groups, then individuals could make their own decisions based on their risk level and risk tolerance.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
6) Almost guaranteed to overwhelm hospitals, even if 99% are asymptomatic, that's 2,000,000 people needing hospitalization.
I'm wondering if you're fully aware of the huge fraction of Covid-1984 hospitalizations and deaths that have come from the extremely high-risk category (very old and/or very sick/frail). If most of those people are protected while the young and healthy build herd immunity, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed.
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:10 pm
I'm interested in realistic scenarios. Right now, the only one that unfortunately seems viable is getting a vaccine.
It's interesting that you consider my approach (which we could take starting today) to be less realistic than an effective vaccine that might materialize but definitely isn't a sure thing.
You’ve got some good responses, for sure.

The realistic comment is in the US, in the current environment, regardless of Nov 3, makes your scenario less likely than an 18 year old dying of Covid. A vaccine is going to be rolled out even if it is only 50% effective. No way is herd immunity an option, unless we just get there naturally. Things may improve as things go on just because they are and people are tired, before a vaccine, but I see no other path.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
Tried to confirm that but could not. However came across the following.

Vinny

5 facts about Fox News

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -fox-news/



3On an ideological scale, the average Fox News consumer is to the right of the average U.S. adult, but not as far to the right as the audiences of some other outlets. As part of the November survey, the Center grouped the audiences of 30 news outlets on a scale based on the self-described ideology and partisanship of those who said they had gotten political news from each outlet in the past week. (You can read more about this classification system in this Q&A.) Based on this scale, the average audience member for Fox News is more likely than the average U.S. adult to be conservative and Republican. But the average audiences for four other outlets in the study – the Daily Caller, Breitbart News, and the Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh radio shows – are to the right of the average Fox News viewer
Capture.JPG
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:39 pm
You’ve got some good responses, for sure.

The realistic comment is in the US, in the current environment, regardless of Nov 3, makes your scenario less likely than an 18 year old dying of Covid. A vaccine is going to be rolled out even if it is only 50% effective. No way is herd immunity an option, unless we just get there naturally. Things may improve as things go on just because they are and people are tired, before a vaccine, but I see no other path.
Oh, I completely agree with you that the chance of most American states switching directions and adopting the herd immunity approach is close to zero now. That ship has sailed.

But I disagree that it's not an option. It always has been -- and still is -- a sensible option. Our society just refuses to seriously consider it because we've gone collectively bonkers over Covid-1984.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:35 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:26 pm
The strategy to dealing with experts on any topic seems to insert an element of doubt or the appearance of disagreement where there really isn't one. The same strategy is always used whether it is tobacco, human induced climate change, or face masks.
Are you seriously suggesting that there is no significant disagreement among virology and epidemiology experts (meaning all experts, not just the ones leading government agencies) regarding the efficacy of face masks and lockdowns in reducing total Covid-1984 hospitalizations and deaths?

It's bizarrely humorous to me how most people seem to have forgotten what the epidemiologists told us repeatedly in the beginning of the pandemic during the "15 Days to Flatten the Curve" campaign. They told us masks, social distancing, and lockdowns would spread the hospitalizations and deaths over a longer span of time but not reduce the total number of them. In other words, "the area under the curves is the same."

How quickly we forget.
doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:26 pm
Fauci has been constantly quoted as flip flopping by the right wing media.
I don't fault Fauci for changing his position on masks months ago as more data became available. I fault him for not changing his position now that we have even more data showing that Covid-1984 is an extra-large nothingburger for everyone except very old and/or sick people. It shows me quite clearly that Fauci has a political agenda to exaggerate the importance of his government agency (NIAID) and maximize its Covid-1984 funding for as long as possible at the expense of Americans' freedom and prosperity.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by drumminj » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:07 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm
ctest.jpg
Who knew I've been administering self-testing protocol during the entire pandemic!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:33 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
Tried to confirm that but could not. However came across the following.

Vinny

5 facts about Fox News

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -fox-news/



3On an ideological scale, the average Fox News consumer is to the right of the average U.S. adult, but not as far to the right as the audiences of some other outlets. As part of the November survey, the Center grouped the audiences of 30 news outlets on a scale based on the self-described ideology and partisanship of those who said they had gotten political news from each outlet in the past week. (You can read more about this classification system in this Q&A.) Based on this scale, the average audience member for Fox News is more likely than the average U.S. adult to be conservative and Republican. But the average audiences for four other outlets in the study – the Daily Caller, Breitbart News, and the Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh radio shows – are to the right of the average Fox News viewer

Capture.JPG
Interesting chart. Now I know why I am most comfortable with CBS.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:03 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:17 am
Rewrite that. "CDC shows mask wearing prevents 15% of cases"

Does that sound better? Currently there's about 7.83M cases, 215k deaths, .02746 CFR. If we prevented 15% of those cases with 100% mask usage (1.1745M), possibly could have saved (doing the math), ~32,250 deaths of the 215k so far.

I think I did that right.

Is that not a good enough reason?
Good math but faulty logic.

You would need to determine the prevalence of mask wearing in the general population, then compare that to mask wearing prevalence in the coronavirus cases. If 85% of the general population wears masks regularly, then (after adjusting for differences between the cases & the general population) you might conclude that mask wearing makes no difference. If 90%+ of the general population wears masks regularly and correctly (which I doubt) then you could conclude that masks might have a protective effect.

What I would actually expect to see is that a SMALLER proportion of the general population wears masks. That's because the population sick enough with COVID to show up at hospitals and get tested are probably more likely to be high risk, and more of them wear masks for personal protection.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:20 am

Ok, sure.

I'm certainly not always logical, but I'm typically realistic. Just like the local parents who want 100% School open right now are twisting themselves into pretzels trying to find every little possible thing that the school board is doing wrong to bolster their case. All it does is create animosity and it's not at all helpful in actually trying to solve the problem of getting kids back to school as soon as possible.

So your mask comments-- it would be great if a study could be done detailing all of this but I don't see that happening for years, if ever because this is all such real time stuff, and I would guess a lot of these relationships are not being documented.

It could eventually be determined they were utterly useless, sure.

But in the meantime just like washing your hands, just wear a mask, it's not going to kill you most likely!

I'm almost surprised there isn't some group somewhere against washing hands.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:43 pm

Thank you WiseOne. I woke up this morning with the realization I had seen something wrong on the internet last night, and needed to fix it today. But you beat me to it! :)

You probably think I'm kidding.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:50 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Thank you WiseOne. I woke up this morning with the realization I had seen something wrong on the internet last night, and needed to fix it today. But you beat me to it! :)

You probably think I'm kidding.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:51 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
Tried to confirm that but could not. However came across the following.
It might have been this, from 2013? I can't remember:
When it comes to political donations, Fox News’ parent company is lately catering to liberals as much as conservatives.

News Corp.’s News America-FOXPAC political action committee contributed to five Democratic political candidates during January, with Republican candidates scoring a goose egg, Federal Election Commission records show. link
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:54 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:33 pm
idiots
That's a plausible theory for why high school students SAT scores have fallen so much in recent years. Kids who wouldn't have bothered taking them, in the past, are taking them now. Maybe because colleges have lowered admission standards, or most jobs require a bachelor's degree now.

Image
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:35 pm

That meme was satirical?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:07 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:59 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:54 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:33 pm
idiots
That's a plausible theory for why high school students SAT scores have fallen so much in recent years. Kids who wouldn't have bothered taking them, in the past, are taking them now. Maybe because colleges have lowered admission standards, or most jobs require a bachelor's degree now.
What is this world coming to when satirical memes actually express the truth? ::)
I'm sure the editors of the Babylon Bee wonder that every day.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:52 am

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... i=17258835

Dr Anthony Fauci says letting Covid-19 spread to achieve herd immunity is 'ridiculous' as infections in the US reach a two-month high with 59k cases in a single day


Dr Anthony Fauci has argued that letting Covid-19 spread in the US to achieve herd immunity is 'ridiculous'
He made the comments on Thursday when asked about the anti-lockdown Great Barrington Declaration that was published earlier this week

The declaration, which was written by experts at Oxford, Harvard and Stanford, calls for the protection of people most at risk of dying from Covid-19

It argues that the rest of the population should be able to return to life as normal

Fauci said the declaration hides that fact that 30% of the population have underlying health conditions that make them more susceptible to Covid-19

It comes as the United States reached its highest number of daily Covid-19 infections in two months with more than 59,000 cases reported on Wednesday

Deaths, however, continue to trend downward nationally with an average of more than 700 Americans dying per day
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:57 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:52 am
The declaration, which was written by experts at Oxford, Harvard and Stanford, calls for the protection of people most at risk of dying from Covid-19

It argues that the rest of the population should be able to return to life as normal

Fauci said the declaration hides that fact that 30% of the population have underlying health conditions that make them more susceptible to Covid-19
Umm...

"The declaration calls for the protection of people most at risk of dying from Covid-19."

So the people with underlying health conditions (or anyone who wants to, really) can continue locking themselves down.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:59 am

The Corona Virus Experts were wrong and now they need Scapegoats....

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/1 ... reenfield/

I found nearly every paragraph in this article to be highly quotable so I'll just share the last one....
The rule of the experts isn’t fighting the virus. It has become the virus.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:44 am

Gift from God keeps on giving.
-----------
Freshman enrollment has dropped more than 16 percent from last year at American colleges and universities — and by nearly a quarter at community colleges — as the threat of the coronavirus has disrupted the nation’s higher education system, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported Thursday.
-----------
Assuming it is still free, this animation is cool: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:10 pm

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:40 am

As Gov Cuomo and his extensive PR team attempt to “reimagine” his response to COVID-19, here’s a Twitter thread to remind everyone what an epic fail it really was.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1316 ... 96448.html
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