Best current options for cash and STT's?

Discussion of the Cash portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kevin K.
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Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kevin K. » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:17 am

I've been hesitant to open a Treasury Direct account just because it's one more thing to manage but the info kindly shared here about I Bonds has convinced me my wife and I would be foolish not to buy 10K a year of them apiece so we'll open the account.

My question is does it make sense to then also just buy T-bills at auction for most or all of the rest of the cash? I have most of my investments at Schwab where my big slug of SCHO (1-3 year Treasury ETF) is in the red thanks to interest rate spikes and where Schwab's Treasury MM is paying a subsized 0% thanks to the combination of pitiful T-bill yields and high ER. SHV is an option but its .15ER exceeds the return on the T-bills; I've even thought of parking a big slug of cash in Schwab Bank savings paying .05% but with FDIC insurance.

Any recommendations appreciated. I understand anything safe will pay next to nothing and I'm OK with that.
Last edited by Kevin K. on Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by mukramesh » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:24 am

Have you considered buying T-bills in your brokerage account?

I don't think there is any advantage using Treasury Direct for anything other than Savings Bonds (I/EE).
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kevin K. » Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:55 am

Thanks!

I was buying T-bills in my Schwab account but they (understandably) stopped offering automatic rollover when rates got close to zero. I imagine Treasury Direct doesn’t offer that either but if I just buy 6-12 month bills it isn’t a big hassle to do my work own.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:14 am

Kevin,
Once you and your wife have bought your annual quota of I-bonds, you have already made the best current investment there is in terms of safety, liquidity and yield for Cash for the PP.

Having the discipline to stick with high quality Treasury securities when real yields are going negative is the wisest strategy right now. Here are a few alternatives you might consider, depending on your personal situation.

1. Overpay your taxes next January to buy the extra $5 in I-bonds with your refund..

2. Set up a trust. With a different EIN you can purchase an additional $10 in I-Bonds each year

3. Buy shorter maturity T-Bills. A 3 month T-bill has virtually the same yield as a 1 year T-bill. You can switch back to 1 year T-bills if interest rates rise later.

4. Make sure you have your full 25% allocation of gold, especially physical gold. In times like these, when the Fed is pursuing ZIRP, it makes sense to remember that gold is our alternative currency and hedge against monetary manipulations.

5. Buy a new car. There are a number of dealers advertising 0% down and 72 months. Make super low interest rates work for you.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:57 am

jhogue wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:14 am
Kevin,
Once you and your wife have bought your annual quota of I-bonds, you have already made the best current investment there is in terms of safety, liquidity and yield for Cash for the PP.

Having the discipline to stick with high quality Treasury securities when real yields are going negative is the wisest strategy right now. Here are a few alternatives you might consider, depending on your personal situation.

1. Overpay your taxes next January to buy the extra $5 in I-bonds with your refund..

2. Set up a trust. With a different EIN you can purchase an additional $10 in I-Bonds each year

3. Buy shorter maturity T-Bills. A 3 month T-bill has virtually the same yield as a 1 year T-bill. You can switch back to 1 year T-bills if interest rates rise later.

4. Make sure you have your full 25% allocation of gold, especially physical gold. In times like these, when the Fed is pursuing ZIRP, it makes sense to remember that gold is our alternative currency and hedge against monetary manipulations.

5. Buy a new car. There are a number of dealers advertising 0% down and 72 months. Make super low interest rates work for you.
I'll give more information later...but regarding #1.

I did do that this year for my 2019 filing: overpaid by $5,000 and filled out the form to have the bonds purchased. Imagine my surprise when I soon received a $5,000 refund! I went back to look at the return I filed and all looked in order.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Xan » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:10 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:57 am
jhogue wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:14 am
Kevin,
Once you and your wife have bought your annual quota of I-bonds, you have already made the best current investment there is in terms of safety, liquidity and yield for Cash for the PP.

Having the discipline to stick with high quality Treasury securities when real yields are going negative is the wisest strategy right now. Here are a few alternatives you might consider, depending on your personal situation.

1. Overpay your taxes next January to buy the extra $5 in I-bonds with your refund..

2. Set up a trust. With a different EIN you can purchase an additional $10 in I-Bonds each year

3. Buy shorter maturity T-Bills. A 3 month T-bill has virtually the same yield as a 1 year T-bill. You can switch back to 1 year T-bills if interest rates rise later.

4. Make sure you have your full 25% allocation of gold, especially physical gold. In times like these, when the Fed is pursuing ZIRP, it makes sense to remember that gold is our alternative currency and hedge against monetary manipulations.

5. Buy a new car. There are a number of dealers advertising 0% down and 72 months. Make super low interest rates work for you.
I'll give more information later...but regarding #1.

I did do that this year for my 2019 filing: overpaid by $5,000 and filled out the form to have the bonds purchased. Imagine my surprise when I soon received a $5,000 refund! I went back to look at the return I filed and all looked in order.

Vinny
Yikes! I tried the same thing, but haven't yet heard anything back about my tax year 2019 filing. Certainly hoping I get my bond.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kbg » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:34 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:55 am
Thanks!

I was buying T-bills in my Schwab account but they (understandably) stopped offering automatic rollover when rates got close to zero. I imagine Treasury Direct doesn’t offer that either but if I just buy 6-12 month bills it isn’t a big hassle to do my work own.
They do sort of...have your bond mature into the Zero Percent C of I account and then purchase from the same account. While it's not an auto-roll you can schedule to redeem/purchase securities for as far out as they have listed auction dates. If you goof something up you just won't get a purchase.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by johnnywitt » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:18 pm

It's weird, but between the ETF's BIL. SHV & VGSH: BIL is way more volatile it has a range of about 4 dollars moves this year, while VGSH is only about a 2 dollar range. It's pretty sick when you're losing hundreds AND you're getting no I interest as well >:D
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:11 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:10 am
vnatale wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:57 am
jhogue wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:14 am
Kevin,
Once you and your wife have bought your annual quota of I-bonds, you have already made the best current investment there is in terms of safety, liquidity and yield for Cash for the PP.

Having the discipline to stick with high quality Treasury securities when real yields are going negative is the wisest strategy right now. Here are a few alternatives you might consider, depending on your personal situation.

1. Overpay your taxes next January to buy the extra $5 in I-bonds with your refund..

2. Set up a trust. With a different EIN you can purchase an additional $10 in I-Bonds each year

3. Buy shorter maturity T-Bills. A 3 month T-bill has virtually the same yield as a 1 year T-bill. You can switch back to 1 year T-bills if interest rates rise later.

4. Make sure you have your full 25% allocation of gold, especially physical gold. In times like these, when the Fed is pursuing ZIRP, it makes sense to remember that gold is our alternative currency and hedge against monetary manipulations.

5. Buy a new car. There are a number of dealers advertising 0% down and 72 months. Make super low interest rates work for you.
I'll give more information later...but regarding #1.

I did do that this year for my 2019 filing: overpaid by $5,000 and filled out the form to have the bonds purchased. Imagine my surprise when I soon received a $5,000 refund! I went back to look at the return I filed and all looked in order.

Vinny
Yikes! I tried the same thing, but haven't yet heard anything back about my tax year 2019 filing. Certainly hoping I get my bond.
When did you file? I filed only a day or two before July 15, 2020.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:00 pm

Try this:

What do I do if I don't get my paper savings bonds?

The first step is to check the status of your refund by going to " Where's My Refund" on www.irs.gov or calling 800-829-1954. According to the IRS, you can check the status within 24 hours of when the IRS receives your e-filed return, or four weeks after you mail a paper return. If the IRS has processed your refund and placed the order for your savings bonds, call 844-284-2676 (toll free) to inquire about the status of your savings bonds.

(from Treasurydirect.gov)
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:08 pm

jhogue wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:00 pm
Try this:

What do I do if I don't get my paper savings bonds?

The first step is to check the status of your refund by going to " Where's My Refund" on www.irs.gov or calling 800-829-1954. According to the IRS, you can check the status within 24 hours of when the IRS receives your e-filed return, or four weeks after you mail a paper return. If the IRS has processed your refund and placed the order for your savings bonds, call 844-284-2676 (toll free) to inquire about the status of your savings bonds.

(from Treasurydirect.gov)
I did receive a refund check for $5,000 which I then deposited into one of my bank accounts.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Xan » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:11 pm
When did you file? I filed only a day or two before July 15, 2020.

Vinny
As did I. I tried the mechanism jhogue outlined (thanks!) and it said it has been received and is still being processed. I'm sure that means there'll be a knock on my door and I'll be hauled away in handcuffs any moment.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:16 am

fund families have cut expenses on money markets to keep the value at 1 dollar ... i don't think the t-bill etf's are doing any expense cutting
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by sophie » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:36 am

I had that same experience with Treasury ETFs. They're not pegged to the dollar like money market funds, so yes you can lose money even in short-term funds. I got out of the ones I had a couple years ago for that very reason - you don't want to be taking even small risks with your cash!

I know my money is not going anywhere in those 0% Treasury MM's, but that works both ways and I'll take it. The PP is doing fine without those interest earnings, so you don't need them. Meanwhile...I might end up buying my first EE bonds later this year. I already got my I-bonds in January, luckily (0.1% fixed rate, hooray!).
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by PrimalToker » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:48 am

What happens when SHV yields less than the ER? Do the fees start eating away at your cash? I have been looking to see if ETF's do the same as MM and cut or waive their expenses but I haven't found any info saying they do...
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kevin K. » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:37 am

PrimalToker wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:48 am
What happens when SHV yields less than the ER? Do the fees start eating away at your cash? I have been looking to see if ETF's do the same as MM and cut or waive their expenses but I haven't found any info saying they do...
SHV has an ER of .15% - so yes, higher than the yield of its component bonds at this point and no they don't waive their expenses.

I have a large chunk of my "cash" allocation in Schwab's Short-Term Treasury Bond fund SCHO and the Vanguard equivalent VGSH. Both have rock-bottom .05% ER's but I'm in the read for the year on both due to recent upticks in interest rates. Just goes to show the stock advice (in the PP book and often on these forums) that holding much of one's cash in STT's rather than a Treasury MM account generating higher returns doesn't hold up in this unprecedented interest rate environment.

My personal take on best (or at least less bad) options at the moment is:

1. Buy your max $10,000 per SSN in iBonds every year (best deal going on cash by far).
2. Buy 6-12 month CDs paying .60-.80% up to the FDIC/NCUA limit of 250K if you have access to them through Navy Federal Credit Union, Ally Bank or other online options (not worth the hassle of opening an account unless you have huge amounts of cash to invest).
3. Buy 3 and 6 month T-bills at auction in your brokerage account and roll them over, or if you can't be bothered and have a Vanguard account buy their Treasury MM account (VUSXX - 50K minimum) and earn a secure 0% interest while we ride this out.

I don't blame folks who are putting 10-25% of their cash into short-term corporate bond funds figuring that the Fed's backstopping of their constituent securities is a free ride but that's a very un-PP thing to do and has no appeal to me personally.

I do think though that we have entered a phase where it makes sense to heed the cliché "take your risk on the equity side" (obviously this means equities plus gold for PP/GB fans). No yields on safe cash and little upside and infinite downside for LTT's.
Last edited by Kevin K. on Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:16 am

I think it is more than a cliché to advise PP investors to take their risk in equities, not Cash. With three out of the four assets in positive territory year to date, it is practically a given that Cash is the worst yielding asset.

As a matter of fact, I wonder if there has ever been a period where all four assets were simultaneously up?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by sophie » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:31 pm

A note on Treasury-only money markets: they are all closed to new investors, so if you don't already have it set up, you'll have to wait a few years to jump in. Also, VUSXX (Vanguard's Treasury MM) had a $50K minimum initial investment. Fidelity (FDLXX) dropped its $25K minimum a year or two ago, but I imagine they will reinstate it when the fund reopens.

If Treasury MM's are not an option, I would do 4 week T bills on autoroll. 6-12 month bank CDs or 1 year T bills are not a bad idea but the extra amount you get, after taxes, probably isn't worth the bother. I would sooner max out I and EE bonds.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kevin K. » Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:48 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:31 pm
A note on Treasury-only money markets: they are all closed to new investors, so if you don't already have it set up, you'll have to wait a few years to jump in. Also, VUSXX (Vanguard's Treasury MM) had a $50K minimum initial investment. Fidelity (FDLXX) dropped its $25K minimum a year or two ago, but I imagine they will reinstate it when the fund reopens.

If Treasury MM's are not an option, I would do 4 week T bills on autoroll. 6-12 month bank CDs or 1 year T bills are not a bad idea but the extra amount you get, after taxes, probably isn't worth the bother. I would sooner max out I and EE bonds.
Hi Sophie!

You must not have seen the latest MM fund news from Vanguard:

https://investornews.vanguard/changes-t ... nd-lineup/

IMHO their decision to switch what used to be Prime MM fund just underlines how much turmoil and instability they see in the financial system. It's almost like their fixed income guys started reading Harry Browne.

And the Treasury MM fund is open again to new investors, albeit with the 50K minimum still intact.

I don't know about other brokerages but Vanguard and Schwab don't do autoroll on Treasuries anymore. But your suggestion of just doing 6-12 month ones and or CDs is a great one and it's not much work to just put the due dates in one's calendar.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by sophie » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:13 am

Wow that is news I missed. Thanks Kevin. And Fidelity’s treasury MM is open too!! With no minimum to open.

I’m sticking with this instead of the CD or 6 month T bill option. I want dry powder to pounce on stocks or bonds if they drop. And the measly 0.6% interest after taxes isn’t worth the bother for me. Maybe for someone in a low tax bracket with no state tax.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:19 am

EE Bonds look like a terrific current buy at 3.53% yield, but it requires holding them for 20 years. For that reason, I would only consider them after I had bought my full quota of I Bonds for the year-- and in conjunction with an explicit liability matching strategy.

I bonds really are uniquely positioned right now. They are the only Treasury-issued security that provide protection against both inflation and deflation. I normally think of them as Deep Cash, but right now, with a 1.06% yield, they can work as a short term investment too.

For safe and liquid Cash, I think the current best of a bad lot is FDLXX. It does not fluctuate in principal value, unlike short term Treasury ETFs, it has recently re-opened to new investors, and it has no minimum (currently). On the other hand, I still think that Fidelity is acting like a gang of pirates by failing to reduce its ridiculous expense ratio of 0.42%.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by Kevin K. » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:44 am

I agree 100% about the iBonds.

Vanguard's VUSXX has an ER of .09%, and while I haven't tried my luck with this a bunch of Bogleheads report that while you have to invest 50K to buy it you can take substantial amounts out after doing so without being booted out of the fund. Schwab's pure Treasury MM fund SNSXX has an ER of .35%. Of course this is part of a much broader issue that really separates Vanguard (with all its flaws) from other brokerages that make much of their money by steering investors into portfolios with too much cash and gouging them on sweep account money. Vanguard as the only truly mutual mutual fund company doesn't have to earn a return for anyone but the mutual fund investors who own it. That said I appreciate the superior customer service and website at Schwab, and I understand Fido is as good or better.

I'm going to go with 6 and 12 month T-bills myself and exit my short term treasury ETF positions when I can do so at or near breakeven.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:18 pm

I think your VUSXX/ STTs/ I-bonds formula will work out well for you.

My target Cash position, consisting of equal parts FDLXX/ 1 yr. T-bills/ I-Bonds, is very similar. Over the past year I have stopped buying T-bills and shifted toward FDLXX/ 0 / I-bonds as T-bill yields have fallen to close to 0%.

Whenever I get the itch to reach for more yield, I remind myself that my overall portfolio has, year to date, gained a very healthy 16% return (nominal). Safety and Liquidity should always come before Yield. It does seem that the rest of the portfolio has made up for our current brush with negative interest rates in Cash.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by barrett » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:28 am

jhogue wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:18 pm
My target Cash position, consisting of equal parts FDLXX/ 1 yr. T-bills/ I-Bonds, is very similar. Over the past year I have stopped buying T-bills and shifted toward FDLXX/ 0 / I-bonds as T-bill yields have fallen to close to 0%.
Has Fidelity waived the .42% expense ratio on FDLXX? If so, that fund would make a lot of sense for my Fido cash position.
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Re: Best current options for cash and STT's?

Post by jhogue » Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:00 am

barrett wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:28 am
jhogue wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:18 pm
My target Cash position, consisting of equal parts FDLXX/ 1 yr. T-bills/ I-Bonds, is very similar. Over the past year I have stopped buying T-bills and shifted toward FDLXX/ 0 / I-bonds as T-bill yields have fallen to close to 0%.
Has Fidelity waived the .42% expense ratio on FDLXX? If so, that fund would make a lot of sense for my Fido cash position.
Barrett,

Fidelity responded to the Treasury yield curve collapse earlier this year by closing FDLXX to new investors and informing its investors that it would begin reimbursing expenses or waiving fees to keep FDLXX and some of its other money market funds from having a negative yield. It has since reopened to new investors, but has not reduced its expense ratio of 0.42%, among the highest of the industry.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, I consider FDLXX to be the worst possible Treasury Money Market Fund—except for all others. Other candidates (SPAXX or VUSXX, for instance) have loaded up on unsuitable derivative securities like bank repos (supposedly collaterlized by T-bills) or agency debt ( a step down in terms of credit risk). The bottom line for me is that I use FDLXX—but I am watching them closely.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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