Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Mark Leavy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:18 am

So for grins, here is what I have riding at Predict It. These are all the max $850 dollar bets. I've put them in order sorted by how far I am in the red.

Note that these bets don't reflect any personal preference on my part, they just represent what I thought the most likely outcome would be when I placed them.

Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman? YES. Not looking so good there.
Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Republican, NO on all of the other parties.
Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Trump, NO on all of the other candidates.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be 70+ on Election Day? NO. Not looking good here either.
Will Donald Trump complete his first term? YES
Will the 2020 Republican nominee for president be a woman? NO
Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? NO
Who will win the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? YES on Trump, NO on everyone else.
Will Donald Trump be the 2020 Republican nominee for president? YES
Will Michelle Obama run for president in 2020? NO
Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2020? NO
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am
I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.

I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
A few responses:

1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?

2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:48 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny
I can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Obviously missed the mark!!!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:11 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am
A few responses:

1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?

2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?

Vinny
In theory, betting markets should be about as accurate as you can get because the folks with inside knowledge can make a killing - and large dollar bets show up in the odds.

Unfortunately, predict it has so much friction built into it, I think it reflects personal preferences more than informed predictions. Bet sizes are limited, they take a huge percentage of any wins, the spreads are outrageous and they take another piece of your money when you take it out. The net effect is that the market isn't efficient. And since no serious money is at play, the people with inside knowledge can't sway the market any more than the random internet pontificator can. So... more fun than useful. Too bad, as it could be a useful tool.

And yes, the users are anonymous. Or at least as anonymous as anyone else trusting a website with their banking information.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:03 pm

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Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:18 pm

That thumbnail image of Trump... LOL
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm

Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:05 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm
Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
The decision has already been made: Hillary.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mountaineer » Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:12 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:05 am
vnatale wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm
Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
The decision has already been made: Hillary.
I'm thinking Michelle. :o >:D :'( Lord have mercy!
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 am

Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:12 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:05 am
vnatale wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm
Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
The decision has already been made: Hillary.
I'm thinking Michelle. :o >:D :'( Lord have mercy!
I was talking about the Presidential candidate, not VP.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:44 am

I'm surprised Michelle Obama isn't on the list of VP hopefuls. I thought the main qualification was a warm body with XX chromosomes only and majority African descent. If I were the Democrats I'd look at high profile black females outside of politics, preferably in business, to counter Trump's strength which is in the economy and also avoid the political baggage carried by all the current VP candidates. The Democrats can't possibly lose the racial-justice-crazy vote, so why pander to them?

The polls are truly irrelevant right now. This is going to be the shortest Presidential campaign in a century, since the convention is going to be little more than a Zoom meeting with a brief Biden cameo, and the first debate isn't until September 29. Kind of refreshing to have a 1.25 month, focused campaign actually. It's probably why Trump is holding up his ads & rallies...he's effectively campaigning against a portrait of an imaginary, idealized candidate right now, and that's always going to look better than someone who is out there making difficult decisions and getting criticized for them. There's nothing to criticize about Biden right now, because he is neither doing or saying anything of substance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:32 am

sophie wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:44 am
I'm surprised Michelle Obama isn't on the list of VP hopefuls.
But Biden promised to pick a woman...
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:42 pm

One word: Beyoncé!
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by glennds » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:50 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:44 am
If I were the Democrats I'd look at high profile black females outside of politics, preferably in business, to counter Trump's strength which is in the economy and also avoid the political baggage carried by all the current VP candidates.
You basically narrowed it down to Oprah
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by glennds » Mon Aug 03, 2020 7:52 pm

If the Kremlin releases a forecast, I would take that one to the bank.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:22 pm

I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.

If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:43 pm

sophie wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:22 pm
I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.

If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
What about the former Orlando police chief? Val Demings. Definitely "in politics", but maybe would give ol' Joe some anti-rioting cred?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:41 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:43 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:22 pm
I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.

If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
What about the former Orlando police chief? Val Demings. Definitely "in politics", but maybe would give ol' Joe some anti-rioting cred?
She's been many times mentioned as a possibility.

VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:48 pm

Polls from the last seven days...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 43, Trump 40 Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9


Arizon: Trump vs. Biden DFP Trump 44, Biden 47 Biden +3
California: Trump vs. Biden Berkeley IGS Biden 67, Trump 28 Biden +39
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 45, Biden 46 Biden +1
Hawaii: Trump vs. Biden HNN/Civil Beat Biden 56, Trump 29 Biden +27
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth Trump 48, Biden 46 Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden DBR Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6
Kansas: Trump vs. Biden PPP* Trump 43, Biden 50 Trump +7
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 50, Biden 41 Trump +9
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 52, Trump 37 Biden +15
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden DBR Biden 54, Trump 36 Biden +18
Montana: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 53, Biden 42 Trump +11
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 44 Biden +4
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Ohio Media Collaborative Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 47, Biden 42 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Research Co Trump 38, Biden 48 Biden +10*
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 46, Biden 47 Biden +1
Utah: Trump vs. Biden Deseret News/Hinckley Inst.* Trump 50, Biden 31 Trump +19
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden DBR Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

*The Research Co. poll for Texas is way out of line with all other polling that I have seen and I am inclined to dismiss it as an outlier.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:17 pm

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:44 am

Seriously, out of all the questions I have about Trump, his tax return is probably the one I'm least interested in. Besides it's pretty obvious why the Democrats want it: they'll search through it and try to find something along the lines of tax fraud/irregularities to nail him on. If he is re-elected I fully expect further impeachment attempts.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by shekels » Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:48 am

Does it Matter?

Joe Biden Listed As Criminal Suspect By Ukrainian Court...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH5qSycwdrk
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by flyingpylon » Sat Aug 08, 2020 12:36 pm

sophie wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 9:44 am
Seriously, out of all the questions I have about Trump, his tax return is probably the one I'm least interested in. Besides it's pretty obvious why the Democrats want it: they'll search through it and try to find something along the lines of tax fraud/irregularities to nail him on. If he is re-elected I fully expect further impeachment attempts.
They know that they don’t need to find actual fraud or irregularities, they just need a little something to create the narrative that there is fraud and irregularities. If that narrative is later proven false, there will be no consequences.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:57 pm

It seriously bogles my mind that most people don't realize :
A) Tax returns don't tell you anything about net worth.
B) Rich people don't do their own taxes. They are filed by highly reputable firms.
C) Accountants are paid to find every legal loophole they can find, questionable or not. That is what they are paid for. And expensive accountants are good at it.

Seriously, does anyone expect anything different?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:15 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:57 pm
It seriously bogles my mind that most people don't realize :
A) Tax returns don't tell you anything about net worth.
B) Rich people don't do their own taxes. They are filed by highly reputable firms.
C) Accountants are paid to find every legal loophole they can find, questionable or not. That is what they are paid for. And expensive accountants are good at it.

Seriously, does anyone expect anything different?
Yes, I'm sure many people (cough, CNN, cough) expect to find that he has been cheating... by taking legal deductions for depreciation.
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