- Capture.JPG (185.38 KiB) Viewed 5745 times
Some 2020 General Election Polls
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:37 pmNow add 10% to the numbers for Trump in each category to account for the silent Trump voters and you might be closer to the actual numbers.
Of course this means an electoral landslide for Trump.
Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
regarding your first sentence: Joe Biden USED to be a moderate Democrat. He's no longer capable of that. Once elected, he would simply be a route by which radical Democrats like AOC will gain power. Hoping more people come to realize that.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 amJoe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
regarding your second sentence: Many things Trump does are in bad taste and some of his executive orders can be (and have been) challenged, but lawless? Please provide details as I'm not aware of anything Trump has done that rises to that description. On the contrary, I'd say the Democrats are doing a pretty darned good job at being lawless.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:00 pmHe may not be personally, but he has embraced much of the far left platform to appease that faction of the party.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 amJoe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
I can't even respond to your second sentence without being impolite other than to say the riots are a bigger concern to most people who do not have TDS.
Polling data would suggest then that TDS now afflicts a substantial majority of Americans.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I'd submit that there is no historical precedent for the Marxist hijacking of the democratic party, or what may be happening in the minds of moderate left-wing voters as a result.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:56 amEither you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.
A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.
You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.
But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.
When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.
A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.
You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.
But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.
When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I have absolutely no evidence to back this up but I have a conspiracy theory that the Dem plan is for Biden to resign some time before his first term is up. Therefore the VP nominee is going to need a lot more scrutiny than usual.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I'm not a citizen, hence I don't vote, but I live here and cannot but see this happening while being a tad detached. It honestly feels this is like having 2 kids, one making a huge tantrum, 4y long, and as a parent giving in just to make it go away. (The left, politicians and media, in this case being the kid making the tantrum).Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:50 pmWhen there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.
I understand the reasoning, and having 2 kids I do really appreciate the bliss of quiet, but it really really really feels like the wrong way to cast a vote.
It's like saying to the left now (and could be the right or whoever else tomorrow): just make as much noise as you can, make my life as insofferable as possible, then I'll cave in and you can have it.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I'm really amazed that somebody hasn't denounced the democratic party's abuse of an obviously disabled man, and why Adult Protective Services hasn't shut this whole thing down.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Because all they care about is power. The fact that he should be in memory care instead of running for President is irrelevant to them so long as he serves their purposes.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 1102
- Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
You keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:50 pmWhat Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.
A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.
You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.
But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.
When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.
But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.
So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I think we are all fully aware that there is a sizeable voter demographic who will pull the lever for anyone but Trump because they've come to hate him so much. - either because of reasoned opposition to some of the statements he has made in the past, or due to the effects of the intensive media campaign against him. If the Democrats start to look too unappetizing though, a good chunk of this demographic will probably either vote for a throwaway candidate or just stay home. Cortopassi, at this point are you planning to vote for Biden?? And what would make you consider a third option?Maddy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:05 pmI'd submit that there is no historical precedent for the Marxist hijacking of the democratic party, or what may be happening in the minds of moderate left-wing voters as a result.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:56 amEither you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.
There is also a demographic of former Clinton voters who have recently become alarmed at the agenda of the Democratic Party and the results of Democratic policies in big cities. I think it's quite likely this demographic will grow larger over time. Plus, Biden is bound to look worse and worse as the campaign really gets going, due to the physical and mental toll. Especially if he starts sundowning during evening events in the fall, when the days get shorter and we go back to Standard Time just weeks before the election.
It'll be very hard to predict which way the election will go given all these variables. Polls will be mostly useless right up to the election.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Yeah conspiracy theories abound that after the convention Biden will drop out due to some mysterious "health issue" and they will substitute Hillary or Cuomo in his place. They will not sub Sanders,Harris or Warren under the justification that the people already spoke in the primaries and do not want them.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:29 pmYou're way too late on the timescale.
Should the Democrats by some tremendous misfortune be able to steal the election, he won't even make it to inauguration day
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I know that a lot of people right now feel that this is specific to Trump. But to me this is just a continuation and raising of the stakes of the reaction for each Republican president of my lifetime. Don't forget, Bush Jr. was Hitler before Trump was Hitler. Therefore (as I said in another post) I am very curious to see how this goes when the next mainstream Republican is elected. If Trump loses this election, the media and left may be so emboldened to think that they made it happen that any and all future Republicans (even if they are a Mitt Romney milquetoast candidate) may get the Trump treatment going forward.flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:38 pmYou keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:50 pmWhat Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.
A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.
You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.
But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.
When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.
But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.
So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Polls from the last 7 days.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Fake news. When are they going to come out with the real polls?Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:02 pmPolls from the last 7 days.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
100 Days Out: Biden Solidifies Role as Favorite; Democrats On Course To Win Senate Narrowly
by Cliston Brown | Jul 26, 2020 | Election Analysis |
http://clistonbrown.com/2020/07/26/100- ... -narrowly/
by Cliston Brown | Jul 26, 2020 | Election Analysis |
http://clistonbrown.com/2020/07/26/100- ... -narrowly/
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
As usual, sorry about the formatting. Best to get to the article, if you can.
Vinny
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-polli ... ?mod=e2twp
What Polling Can Tell Us 100 Days From the Election
Joe Biden has maintained steady lead over President Trump, but will it hold up?
Biden’s lead over Trump has been
unusually large and stable
Size of lead,
pct. pts.
15
10
5
DEM.
REP.
300
days before the election
200
100
2020
2016
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
Note: Moving average of polls, based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
By
July 26, 2020 9:00 am ET
Print
Text
The 2020 presidential election marks an important milestone Sunday as the race enters its final 100 days. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Joe Biden and President Trump have been mostly derailed from conducting the kind of campaigns voters have come to expect.
How that ultimately will factor into the outcome is unclear, but recent polling has provided encouraging news for the Democratic challenger.
In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nearly nine points. That is the largest such gap at this point in the cycle by any candidate since President Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, based on historical poll averages compiled by political scientists Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin. (Their methodology for computing historical daily poll averages differs somewhat from that of Real Clear Politics, but the data provide a reasonable baseline for comparing the current race.)
How poll averages have fluctuated during the period 100–200 days
before the election
80
%
Democrat
Republican
High during
this period: 67%
70
Actual share
of the vote
60
50
40
Low:
40%
30
20
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Note: Based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
But perhaps more remarkable than the spread between the candidates has been the stability of the race thus far. Messrs. Biden and Trump have both polled in an unusually narrow range, with average support for each varying by only a few points in the past six months.
WSJ Newsletter
What's News
A digest of the day's most important news to watch, delivered to your inbox.
Sign up
In addition, the high end of Mr. Trump’s range hasn’t ever matched Mr. Biden’s polling floor to date. That hasn’t happened this close to Election Day since Sen. Bob Dole trailed far behind Mr. Clinton in 1996. Moreover, since 1992, the final national popular vote has nearly always fallen within the range of poll averages during the period between 100 and 200 days out.
Popular-vote winner’s polling at this point in the campaign vs. actual vote share
Actual share
of the vote
Trump’s current
polling support
Vote share in November
was higher than polling
at this point
70
%
65
Vote share
was lower
1964
1972
60
1984
1952
1980
1956
1996
55
1988
2008
2012
1992
1976
2016
2004
50
1968
2000
1960
45
40
Poll average 100 days before the election
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
%
Note: Average of polls; all data based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
The correlation between average poll standings at this point in the campaign and the final national popular vote is fairly strong. Nearly all of the outliers were candidates who were registering north of 60% of the two-party vote in poll averages 100 days out. Those eventual winners saw their support dampen a bit by Election Day, but most still won by comfortable margins.
Mr. Trump’s share of the two-party vote currently sits just above 45%, lower than any eventual popular-vote winner since 1988. But it is worth noting that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush overcame the biggest 100-day deficit of an eventual winner—nearly 20 points—thanks to a series of missteps by opponent Michael Dukakis and a hard-hitting ad campaign attacking the Democratic nominee.
Moreover, two popular-vote winners in the last 20 years lost in the Electoral College vote: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Polling averages and results in the closest states of 2016
2016
100 days out
current
Biden lead
final poll avg.
Michigan
actual
result
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
8
6
4
2
Dem. lead
Rep. lead
2
points
Source: Real Clear Politics; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
That popular vote/electoral vote split might be the most enduring lesson of 2016. While national polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936—the final Real Clear Politics average gave Mrs. Clinton a 3.2-point advantage, while her actual popular-vote margin was 2.1 points—Mr. Trump emerged victorious thanks to narrow wins in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And state polls there missed the mark for various reasons.
However, in at least two of those states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—Mr. Biden’s current lead in poll averages is more than double what Mrs. Clinton’s was at the same point in time. That should be a sign of concern for the Trump campaign, since he won those three states by a combined 77,744 votes—just over one-half of 1% of the trio’s aggregate vote total.
Vinny
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-polli ... ?mod=e2twp
What Polling Can Tell Us 100 Days From the Election
Joe Biden has maintained steady lead over President Trump, but will it hold up?
Biden’s lead over Trump has been
unusually large and stable
Size of lead,
pct. pts.
15
10
5
DEM.
REP.
300
days before the election
200
100
2020
2016
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
Note: Moving average of polls, based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
By
July 26, 2020 9:00 am ET
Text
The 2020 presidential election marks an important milestone Sunday as the race enters its final 100 days. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Joe Biden and President Trump have been mostly derailed from conducting the kind of campaigns voters have come to expect.
How that ultimately will factor into the outcome is unclear, but recent polling has provided encouraging news for the Democratic challenger.
In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nearly nine points. That is the largest such gap at this point in the cycle by any candidate since President Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, based on historical poll averages compiled by political scientists Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin. (Their methodology for computing historical daily poll averages differs somewhat from that of Real Clear Politics, but the data provide a reasonable baseline for comparing the current race.)
How poll averages have fluctuated during the period 100–200 days
before the election
80
%
Democrat
Republican
High during
this period: 67%
70
Actual share
of the vote
60
50
40
Low:
40%
30
20
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Note: Based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
But perhaps more remarkable than the spread between the candidates has been the stability of the race thus far. Messrs. Biden and Trump have both polled in an unusually narrow range, with average support for each varying by only a few points in the past six months.
WSJ Newsletter
What's News
A digest of the day's most important news to watch, delivered to your inbox.
Sign up
In addition, the high end of Mr. Trump’s range hasn’t ever matched Mr. Biden’s polling floor to date. That hasn’t happened this close to Election Day since Sen. Bob Dole trailed far behind Mr. Clinton in 1996. Moreover, since 1992, the final national popular vote has nearly always fallen within the range of poll averages during the period between 100 and 200 days out.
Popular-vote winner’s polling at this point in the campaign vs. actual vote share
Actual share
of the vote
Trump’s current
polling support
Vote share in November
was higher than polling
at this point
70
%
65
Vote share
was lower
1964
1972
60
1984
1952
1980
1956
1996
55
1988
2008
2012
1992
1976
2016
2004
50
1968
2000
1960
45
40
Poll average 100 days before the election
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
%
Note: Average of polls; all data based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
The correlation between average poll standings at this point in the campaign and the final national popular vote is fairly strong. Nearly all of the outliers were candidates who were registering north of 60% of the two-party vote in poll averages 100 days out. Those eventual winners saw their support dampen a bit by Election Day, but most still won by comfortable margins.
Mr. Trump’s share of the two-party vote currently sits just above 45%, lower than any eventual popular-vote winner since 1988. But it is worth noting that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush overcame the biggest 100-day deficit of an eventual winner—nearly 20 points—thanks to a series of missteps by opponent Michael Dukakis and a hard-hitting ad campaign attacking the Democratic nominee.
Moreover, two popular-vote winners in the last 20 years lost in the Electoral College vote: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Polling averages and results in the closest states of 2016
2016
100 days out
current
Biden lead
final poll avg.
Michigan
actual
result
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
8
6
4
2
Dem. lead
Rep. lead
2
points
Source: Real Clear Politics; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
That popular vote/electoral vote split might be the most enduring lesson of 2016. While national polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936—the final Real Clear Politics average gave Mrs. Clinton a 3.2-point advantage, while her actual popular-vote margin was 2.1 points—Mr. Trump emerged victorious thanks to narrow wins in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And state polls there missed the mark for various reasons.
However, in at least two of those states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—Mr. Biden’s current lead in poll averages is more than double what Mrs. Clinton’s was at the same point in time. That should be a sign of concern for the Trump campaign, since he won those three states by a combined 77,744 votes—just over one-half of 1% of the trio’s aggregate vote total.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
This is why polls mean nothing
"Self-censorship is on the rise according to a new Cato Institute survey that reports nearly two-thirds of Americans are afraid to share their political views.
A new CATO Institute/YouGov national survey found 62% of Americans say the political climate today prevents them from saying what they believe. This is up several points from 2017 when 58% of Americans said they were afraid to share their political beliefs."
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/22/walk ... iews-cato/
A new CATO Institute/YouGov national survey found 62% of Americans say the political climate today prevents them from saying what they believe. This is up several points from 2017 when 58% of Americans said they were afraid to share their political beliefs."
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/22/walk ... iews-cato/
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Polls from the last seven days sorted alphabetically and by date (most recent on top)
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 57, Trump 43 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Alaska: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 44, Trump 50 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 52, Trump 39 Biden+13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 48, Biden 47 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden MassINC Biden 55, Trump 23 Biden +32
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TargetPoint Biden 49, Trump 33 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 52, Trump 40 Biden +12
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Ohio:Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ALG Research Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 62, Trump 28 Biden +34
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error +/- 3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 57, Trump 43 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Alaska: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 44, Trump 50 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 52, Trump 39 Biden+13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 48, Biden 47 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden MassINC Biden 55, Trump 23 Biden +32
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TargetPoint Biden 49, Trump 33 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 52, Trump 40 Biden +12
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Ohio:Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ALG Research Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 62, Trump 28 Biden +34
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error +/- 3
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
Vinny
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- Mark Leavy
- Executive Member
- Posts: 1950
- Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm
- Location: US Citizen, Permanent Traveler
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.
I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.