Coronavirus General Discussion

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flyingpylon
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:19 am

Some interesting data from Florida taken from this Twitter thread.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:25 am

And this from Texas:
Health officials in Texas are logging every single COVID-19-positive hospital patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves are admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.
Texas Health Resources, one of the state's largest hospital systems, says on its website that its "patients [are] tested before most procedures." Elective surgeries and other medical procedures in Texas have gone up in recent weeks as the state has gradually re-opened following its lockdown.
The number of hospitalizations are "being misinterpreted," said Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom, "and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now."
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... pital-case
flyingpylon
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:10 am

Coincidentally, our friend Karl has published strong opinion about mask use today:

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3552549
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:10 am

Yes, the same thing is happening in NY. It makes sense to do COVID testing in any patient coming into the hospital, since obviously you need to implement precautions if they're positive. Counting them as a COVID case also makes sense. But listing them as "COVID hospitalizations" is incredibly misleading, unless they were admitted specifically with COVID symptoms.

Maybe there really is an increase in true serious COVID illnesses, because of the stories about ICUs filling up. On the other hand...my hospital likes to stay as close to full as possible because that's how they make money. 88% full would normally trigger emails asking us to find reasons to admit people. We get yelled at if the specialty unit that my division runs has empty beds more than occasionally. The hospitals that were 70% full because of cancelling elective procedures were probably really upset about it. Going up to 88% full may simply be because they're now admitting patients for elective procedures.

With all these issues...it's kind of hard to know what's really happening. Having a lot of people testing positive for COVID is not by itself a problem. If the numbers from New York and Santa Clara county are to be believed, around 10-20% of the entire US population had already been exposed to the virus over a month ago - likely it's more than that now. I'm perfectly prepared to believe that there really is a surge in serious cases in many states, but so far I haven't seen any reliable supporting information.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:13 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:25 am
And this from Texas:
[...]
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... pital-case
Financial incentive from the CARES Act. See my recent comment in this other thread: viewtopic.php?p=199605#p199605
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:14 pm

Here in Pinellas County, Florida we now have a mandatory mask ordinance in public places after the so-called "surge" in new cases once the lock-downs were lifted.

Looking at the charts there truly has been a significant increase in new cases but it coincides not only with the end of the lock-downs but the implementation of free testing with or without symptoms.

Running the numbers myself the total number of cases in the county since the very beginning has amounted to about one half of one percent (.5%) of the total population of one million people. If that's a "surge" then I think we will be able to handle it okay. Deaths and hospitalizations do NOT show any significant increase but they don't show that in the CDC charts - just the number of new cases.

Having said that I do think young people might be too quick to abandon all caution but can you really blame them for thinking the whole thing was bullshit when the dire predictions didn't pan out?

One thing that hasn't happened here in Florida that went against my expectations and those of others is that the hot weather isn't killing it (100 degrees is predicted here today which is actually a rarity). The same seems to be true in other warm weather states. The best theory I've heard about why this has been the case is because in the hot weather states we stay inside with the circulating A/C on.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:29 pm

Here in the AZ desert we have been 100 degrees plus for two months now, with most weeks recently closer to 110. And we have the worst cases per million pop in the country right now. Corona likes the hot temps it seems. Also, our data has surprisingly shown a DECREASE in tests done, but a major increase in percentage of tests positive. Things are bad here. Most cities last week voted to make masks mandatory in public. We will find out in a week or so just how much masks effect the transmission. If our numbers improve substantially, then it's a good sign that masks are effective. If they don't, then it would really put a damper on the pro-mask argument. Honestly, I really hope the masks do work. It would be so much better to have to wear masks than to have to lock down again. We have less than 200 beds available right now, and many hospitals in the less populated areas are full and having to ship people to Phoenix for treatment. Part of the children's hospital was converted to coronavirus ICU space. Seems like every day is record breaking numbers across the board. The AZ corona charts are all just straight up and to the right with no sign of tapering. A major chunk of the new cases have surprisingly been younger people too.

Obviously, in a very right wing state the mandatory mask ruling has not went over well (Scottsdale especially, they had a big no-mask protest that looked like a Darwinian paradise with droves of older people crowded on each other protesting masks). But these would be crying even more if we had to lock down again. The places I've been this week everyone has had masks on, which is a far cry from a week ago where I felt like a big time minority by wearing a mask. I really, really hope the masks prove to work, because it is a much less evil than having to lock down again.
Last edited by pmward on Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:32 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:14 pm
The best theory I've heard about why this has been the case is because in the hot weather states we stay inside with the circulating A/C on.
I have heard the theory that northern locations had the biggest problems earlier because everyone stays inside with the heat on, but southern locations are having problems now because everyone stays inside with the A/C on. Seems logical, but who knows.

My question is why is there a spike in testing (which in turn identifies more cases)? Is it just because testing is freely available now, or is it because people actually have symptoms?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:51 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:29 pm
Here in the AZ desert we have been 100 degrees plus for two months now, with most weeks recently closer to 110. And we have the worst cases per million pop in the country right now. Corona likes the hot temps it seems.
Does Corona really like the hot temps or does it like people staying inside in circulating air environments? I think that is the big question. I recently read another article claiming that the virus is killed in 34 minutes outside in summer weather. So maybe instead of quarantining people in their homes they should all be ordered to go camping.

Hopefully we can get some honest answers although those seem to be hard to come by nowadays.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:28 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:51 pm

Does Corona really like the hot temps or does it like people staying inside in circulating air environments?
Not sure, but the hot weather doesn't seem to be acting as much of a deterrent right now.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:56 am

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:28 pm
pp4me wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:51 pm

Does Corona really like the hot temps or does it like people staying inside in circulating air environments?
Not sure, but the hot weather doesn't seem to be acting as much of a deterrent right now.
Interesting response from Bing search when I tried to get an answer to this question....

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:43 pm

And AZ is now officially starting to lock some things down. Ducey just announced that all bars, gyms, movie theaters, water parks, salt river tubing, are closed for 30 days and first day of school is delayed until Aug 17.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:55 pm

Gyms seem to be one of the most dangerous places in regard to the virus. I've come to a compromise by embracing my inner night owl. I only go after midnight when the gym is basically empty. And the staff has long started cleaning already. Seems like a reasonable approach if you can't stay away from the gym (and if your schedule allows of course).

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:06 pm

Man, my gym opened recently and it's like heaven. It's the only place I go where I don't have to wear a mask. Actually, nobody in there wears a mask. Well, one guy did, but I saw him furtively removing in the corner it so he didn't look like a pussy. But then he went and got on the Smith machine and I'm thinking, "well, what was the point then?"
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:36 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:06 pm
so he didn't look like a pussy.
Is that a personal observation? Wearing a mask = pussy? Just curious.

I've never seen so much black and white politics over a simple piece of cloth, unless it was a flag. Can't we just assume it is gray? Maybe it helps a teensy tiny little?

Or please explain how the US is still going up and so many other westernized countries have seemed to have gotten control of the virus?

I recall being so worried for relatives in Italy. I think at this point it is 100% reversed. Everyone is worried about relatives in the US.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Hal » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:11 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:06 pm
Man, my gym opened recently and it's like heaven. It's the only place I go where I don't have to wear a mask. Actually, nobody in there wears a mask. Well, one guy did, but I saw him furtively removing in the corner it so he didn't look like a pussy. But then he went and got on the Smith machine and I'm thinking, "well, what was the point then?"
Heh...
Brought back memories of Japan with all the "Cutesy" stuff over there.
There used to be a website called "Hello Kitty Hell"
Anyway, back on topic.....
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:12 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:06 pm
But then he went and got on the Smith machine and I'm thinking, "well, what was the point then?"
Okay Krieg. That is funny as hell. Fuck Smith machines. No offense to our own Smith.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:20 pm

Just looking at who does and who doesn't wear a mask is interesting. My friends and family cover the spectrum of left to right and they all think science is on their side - and it turns out that their scientific views align with their ideology. Funny that. So, I glean no information from that.

In traveling cross country I pay attention to the local workers. Most of them don't care whether you are left or right and they do or don't wear a mask depending on what they need to do to keep paying the rent. Right and Left towns, Right and Left customers, the working stiffs are just doing what they need to do to get paid. No more, no less. They'll put on the mask when someone comes in with a mask and leave it off if someone comes in without one.

Make of that what you will.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:26 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:50 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:55 pm
Gyms seem to be one of the most dangerous places in regard to the virus.
Do you have facts to back up that statement or is that just the result of it feeling creepy in there, like it should be a petri dish?
Our provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry made some remarks as such. Basically saying that the only places more dangerous would be concerts and similar venues. In my ignorance of epidemiology I've decided to just go based off of her warnings. Still, I think going late at night when no one is there has got to be an improvement over going at peak hours.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:15 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:36 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:06 pm
so he didn't look like a pussy.
Is that a personal observation? Wearing a mask = pussy? Just curious.
More of a joke.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:20 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:26 am
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:50 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:55 pm
Gyms seem to be one of the most dangerous places in regard to the virus.
Do you have facts to back up that statement or is that just the result of it feeling creepy in there, like it should be a petri dish?
Our provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry made some remarks as such.
Mmmm, gotta call bullshit on that one. Every gym I've been to (except my HS gym) has spray bottles of bleach everyone uses to wipe down equipment before they use it. There's a lot of aerosolized bleach floating around in gyms. I figure the increased immune function as a result of exercise has to factor in as well. Cubicle farms seem much more hazardous, but it would be Wrongspeak for a public official to say that.
Basically saying that the only places more dangerous would be concerts and similar venues. In my ignorance of epidemiology I've decided to just go based off of her warnings. Still, I think going late at night when no one is there has got to be an improvement over going at peak hours.
Doesn't the "science" say that sunlight and alcohol inhibit it? Remember when the public health official in California said that the ocean was full of coronavirus and you couldn't pay her "a million dollars" to go to the beach ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:57 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:20 am

Mmmm, gotta call bullshit on that one. Every gym I've been to (except my HS gym) has spray bottles of bleach everyone uses to wipe down equipment before they use it. There's a lot of aerosolized bleach floating around in gyms. I figure the increased immune function as a result of exercise has to factor in as well. Cubicle farms seem much more hazardous, but it would be Wrongspeak for a public official to say that.
Doesn't the "science" say that sunlight and alcohol inhibit it? Remember when the public health official in California said that the ocean was full of coronavirus and you couldn't pay her "a million dollars" to go to the beach ;D ;D ;D ;D
Yeah, I'm gonna plead ignorance again on this one. Rather than coming to my own misguided conclusions I'm going to farm out my thinking on this one to the local health authority.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:11 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:08 am


Good plan. Cuz politicians always know what's best for us! ::)
In fairness, Bonnie Henry is a legit physician.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:16 am

k
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:26 am

I wonder if this general difference in perspective towards health authorities is common for people chatting across the 49th parallel. It's interesting that I don't see that level of cynicism from anyone here locally. Then again, here in B.C (and Canada generally) our Coronavirus response seems to have been more effective and responsible on the part of the health authorities compared to the U.S. If I were a U.S. citizen I'd probably be much more skeptical too.
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