Some 2020 General Election Polls

D1984
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by D1984 » Fri May 15, 2020 3:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:32 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:24 pm
What did you do to start getting them?
Nothing I'm aware of. All from unknown random numbers.
I've gotten three of them myself in the last couple of days. I have no idea why; I'm registered as an independent and voted an almost all Democratic ticket in 2016 and 2018 (there were one and two local offices that were nonpartisan respectively so there was no "R" or "D" running for those offices...merely two people without listing their political affiliation); I was registered as a Republican back in late 2007 through much of 2008 so that's the only reason I can think of I might be getting these messages. Two quick questions:

Were you ever (or at least in the last 10-15 years) registered as a Republican or made a campaign contribution to a GOP campaign and thus perhaps inadvertently signed up to be on a mailing/texting list somehow?

Two, if not...aren't these texts a violation of the Do-Not-Call Act or does that only apply to voice calls and not texts?

Edit: FWIW I live in Georgia; I don't really consider it a swing state since if Biden is going so far as to win Georgia then he's probably got 360+ EVs anyway and thus doesn't need Georgia and if he is so far behind that he actually needs Georgia's EVs to eke out a win then it's kind of moot since at that point he's likely losing at least Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Arizona anyway and thus winning Georgia still wouldn't be enough to being him over the top (plus if he loses all of those three then I'm 99.999% certain he'd lose Georgia and Florida too).
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 15, 2020 3:48 pm

Georgia: Trump v Biden- BK Strategies- Biden 46, Trump 48- Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump v Biden- East Carolina University- Biden 43, Trump 46- Trump +3
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Fri May 15, 2020 3:58 pm

D1984 wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:39 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:32 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 3:24 pm
What did you do to start getting them?
Nothing I'm aware of. All from unknown random numbers.
I've gotten three of them myself in the last couple of days. I have no idea why; I'm registered as an independent and voted an almost all Democratic ticket in 2016 and 2018 (there were one and two local offices that were nonpartisan respectively so there was no "R" or "D" running for those offices...merely two people without listing their political affiliation); I was registered as a Republican back in late 2007 through much of 2008 so that's the only reason I can think of I might be getting these messages. Two quick questions:

Were you ever (or at least in the last 10-15 years) registered as a Republican or made a campaign contribution to a GOP campaign and thus perhaps inadvertently signed up to be on a mailing/texting list somehow?

Two, if not...aren't these texts a violation of the Do-Not-Call Act or does that only apply to voice calls and not texts?

Edit: FWIW I live in Georgia; I don't really consider it a swing state since if Biden is going so far as to win Georgia then he's probably got 360+ EVs anyway and thus doesn't need Georgia and if he is so far behind that he actually needs Georgia's EVs to eke out a win then it's kind of moot since at that point he's likely losing at least Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Arizona anyway and thus winning Georgia still wouldn't be enough to being him over the top (plus if he loses all of those three then I'm 99.999% certain he'd lose Georgia and Florida too).
I've always been registered as independent. Maybe that's the link, as we are both registered independent.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat May 16, 2020 1:17 pm

Breaking News: Justin Amash is not running for president. :(
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat May 16, 2020 7:54 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 1:17 pm
Breaking News: Justin Amash is not running for president. :(
What prompted that??!!! If true, that leaves me candidate-less!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat May 16, 2020 9:49 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 7:54 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 1:17 pm
Breaking News: Justin Amash is not running for president. :(
What prompted that??!!! If true, that leaves me candidate-less!

Vinny

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/p ... e=Homepage

I feel your pain. Maybe I will do a write in.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon May 18, 2020 11:41 am

Colorado: Biden v Trump- Global Strategies- Biden 53, Trump 40- Biden +13
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Mon May 18, 2020 12:59 pm

Not really surprising. Keep in mind that Trump is repeatedly hammered in the media while Biden has been mostly kept out of sight, and polls are little more than popularity contests at this point.

However - I predict there will be some pretext to cancel the debates and limit Biden's public appearances to a small number of brief, carefully scripted events. Even more I bet they will be heavily edited, and perhaps touched up with his past speeches, before being released to the networks. There will be no live events apart from Queen-like waving from a distant balcony. Meanwhile the media will continue to hammer Trump for all they're worth. That's clearly the strategy, and I suspect the election will hinge on its success.

The choice of Democratic VP will be largely ignored as usual, but...that person will be President within days after the inauguration, if Biden is elected. Very clever DNC strategy for burying the populist candidates that otherwise would have dominated.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Mon May 18, 2020 1:52 pm

A Hilary-Trump rematch? Oh that would be special!

It would be a lot less sinister and more, well, democratic if another candidate were chosen openly at the convention. In fact, the more I think about it a constitutional crisis could result if the President were effectively appointed by a bunch of backroom dealers, rather than legitimately elected.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Mon May 18, 2020 3:14 pm

sophie wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 12:59 pm
However - I predict there will be some pretext to cancel the debates and limit Biden's public appearances to a small number of brief, carefully scripted events. Even more I bet they will be heavily edited, and perhaps touched up with his past speeches, before being released to the networks. There will be no live events apart from Queen-like waving from a distant balcony.
I'm starting to get a Weekend at Bernie's vibe from the Biden campaign.

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Mon May 18, 2020 5:34 pm

I think it may just be really hard to oust a sitting President running for another term. I couldn't believe it when Obama won in 2012, especially since Scott Brown had just been elected in Massachusetts of all places running on an anti-Obamacare platform.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon May 18, 2020 6:35 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 5:34 pm
I think it may just be really hard to oust a sitting President running for another term. I couldn't believe it when Obama won in 2012, especially since Scott Brown had just been elected in Massachusetts of all places running on an anti-Obamacare platform.
The reason Obama was re-elected is that the RNC cheated Ron Paul out of competing for the nomination. This resulted in a lot of libertarian-leaning Republicans deciding to stay home.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm

It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Mon May 18, 2020 9:23 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
I thought if nobody had a majority, the delegates could meet and nominate anyone they wanted to. Seems almost more fair to pick somebody who didn't run rather than somebody who ran and didn't come in first.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 10:00 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

[/quote]

Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
[/quote]

I get a different impression. I sense a lot more solid than mixed. I detect little mix. But your perception / impression may be better than mine is on this. I may be too sensitive to what I read on this topic.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am

Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.

Trump is like your garrulous old uncle who you hate to invite over for Thanksgiving because he drives everyone nuts. Despite the irresponsible utterances, in many ways his instincts are right. When it comes to voting, you have to look past the fluff and pick the party that you think will best represent your interests. IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
Not only all that, but a big one for me is judge appointments, particularly on the Supreme Court. Any Dem is going to appoint people who think it's a judge's job to make things up as he goes along, when of course the truth is the opposite.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am

I'm sure I'm up there on Vinny's list. I agree with everything people like Ad and Dualstow have said about Trump's "alternative facts", temper tantrums in the White House, irresponsible statements and use of Twitter etc. I just don't think those are as important as other considerations.

And btw some more serious issues I have with the Democratic party: the rise of identity politics which is the ugliest social development we have had as a nation since slavery & Jim Crow. And globalism which has been incredibly destructive for the middle class plus look where it got us during this pandemic, with no ability to manufacture even simple essential items.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 10:19 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:49 am
Xan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am
sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.
I would agree.

Vinny, why don't you tell us who here you think is a die-hard Trump fan and then let them respond?
Maybe. Have to think about that and whether anything positive comes from that.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue May 19, 2020 10:38 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
Biden isn't going to get the Bernie baby votes anyway.
Same with Warren's supporters, whoever they may be.
The DNC cheated Bernie last time and they'll cheat Biden, Bernie and Warren this time.
After all, it's not like they care about democracy!
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, Libertarian666, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
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