Interesting epidemiology data from New York: it turns out that those getting seriously ill from the virus are a highly select group that has little or nothing to do with economic activity. Excerpt from
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-covid ... _lead_pos2:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has directed hospitals to begin asking new coronavirus patients for their occupation, usual transportation mode and neighborhood. Although New York has been shut down for seven weeks, several thousand people are still testing positive and hundreds are being hospitalized each day.
Last week Mr. Cuomo disclosed some preliminary findings: Twenty-two percent of those who entered the hospital came from a nursing home or assisted living facility. Ninety-six percent had an underlying health condition. Yet only 17% were employed, and only 4% in New York City had been taking public transportation.
“We were thinking that maybe we were going to find a higher percentage of essential employees who were getting sick because they were going to work—that these may be nurses, doctors, transit workers. That’s not the case,” he said. “They’re not working, they’re not traveling, they’re predominantly downstate, predominantly minority, predominantly older.”
...
Surprisingly, millennials who are known to crowd bars and clubs were about as likely to carry antibodies as baby boomers. Even more curious, 12% of health-care workers tested positive for antibodies compared to 20% of the general population.
This is excellent data (due credit to Cuomo for deciding to collect it) that needs to be replicated elsewhere. It sure looks like the case for economic lockdowns is now almost nonexistent. Cases in NY are probably dropping not because working-age people are staying home, but because the virus has mostly run its course in the small slice of the population that is most at risk. Sort like a forest fire that has used up most of the dry tinder and is now burning around the fringes.
Also, it is reassuring to know that only 4% of serious cases occur in people without an "underlying health condition" which I assume means something like diabetes, asthma, or morbid obesity. Old age is certainly associated with these conditions, but not everyone in that age group will have them. If you're older and don't have any health problems and aren't morbidly obese (BMI > 40), then according to these data you're in the safe group!