The one that got away - chance to get back together?

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GT
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The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am

I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:37 am

I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:50 am

pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:37 am
I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
Agree - there is some (a lot of) emotional bias going on

I do feel the company is solid and the original CEO / founder from 1994 is still running the show
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:00 pm

I was granted Schlumberger RSUs worth $220,000 at the time of the grant, but then sold them for $180,000 when I vested due to the 2015 oil collapse. I thought it might be fun to re-buy the shares for 90% off someday, for $22,000. It's almost there.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by vnatale » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:00 pm
I was granted Schlumberger RSUs worth $220,000 at the time of the grant, but then sold them for $180,000 when I vested due to the 2015 oil collapse. I thought it might be fun to re-buy the shares for 90% off someday, for $22,000. It's almost there.
When I was the CFO of a company that went public, the shares I had paid $7,000 were worth $250,000 the day we went public.

About two to three years later that investment became a $7,000 long-term capital loss.

VInny
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Dieter
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by Dieter » Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:03 pm

GT wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am
I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
A small play, sure, have fun with it.

10% of your portfolio? Um....
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GT
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:10 am

Dieter wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:03 pm
GT wrote:
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am
I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF

Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)

Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"

Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling

Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
A small play, sure, have fun with it.

10% of your portfolio? Um....
Yes - small play - it is gambling
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:43 am

I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit. 😭

Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:00 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:43 am
I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit. 😭

Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
What did you do with the stock -buy hold or sell
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:16 am

I’m holding it. The only reason I’m not buying more is because I’m trickling into VTSAX (total u.s. market) right now, and virtually nothing else.

I can’t take advantage of tax loss harvesting, and I see no point in selling at a loss. I still think of it as a quality company.
Not a very nuanced take, I know. :D But, as in your case, I don’t hold a lot of it. I believe the odds are good enough that it will be higher when I’m no longer in the accumulation phase.

Or it will be acquired by one of the behemoths, which would also be fine.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am

Up 11% this morning.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?

Post by GT » Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:48 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am
Up 11% this morning.
Nice!! at the beginning of the month it was 44.68 - 70.31 as of today

Now when to sell or do I buy more - crazy - I hate it

I would never make it as a stock picker -
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