[COF] The one that got away - chance to get back together?
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[COF] The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF
Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)
Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"
Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling
Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)
Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"
Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling
Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Agree - there is some (a lot of) emotional bias going onpmward wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:37 am I mean that is technically what the VP is for... however to buy or sell simply because of where something was in the past is not a real reason to speculate. There is no reason any stock has to go back where it was. The past is meaningless. You have to look at what the future prospects of the company are.
I do feel the company is solid and the original CEO / founder from 1994 is still running the show
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I was granted Schlumberger RSUs worth $220,000 at the time of the grant, but then sold them for $180,000 when I vested due to the 2015 oil collapse. I thought it might be fun to re-buy the shares for 90% off someday, for $22,000. It's almost there.
- vnatale
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
When I was the CFO of a company that went public, the shares I had paid $7,000 were worth $250,000 the day we went public.
About two to three years later that investment became a $7,000 long-term capital loss.
VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
A small play, sure, have fun with it.GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF
Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)
Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"
Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling
Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
10% of your portfolio? Um....
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Yes - small play - it is gamblingDieter wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:03 pmA small play, sure, have fun with it.GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:28 am I had company stock in a 401K back in the day - COF
Watched it drop to $8 to $12 a share 2008 or 2009 - kept it until it returned to $54 a share in 2013 and sold.
- the roller coaster like experience helped we find the Harry Browne and John Bogle's of the world
- I had all the good reasons to sell (single sector risk, CEO risk, not diversified)
Watched it climb to $104 a share over the years
- could have doubled my money from 2013 to Jan 2020
- had the nagging feeling of the "one that got way"
Fast forward to today and the share price is back to $55 a share
- I think I am going to buy some shares as a VP purchase to get rid of the "one that got away" feelings
- Going to look at the purchase as pure speculation i.e. gambling
Talk me off the cliff or that's what a VP is for?
10% of your portfolio? Um....
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit.
Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
What did you do with the stock -buy hold or selldualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:43 am I like COF. Most of my individual stock portfolio was put together when I was avoiding the banking & finance sector. More recently, I hand picked a few companies that I liked such as Visa and last July, Capital One/COF. I was very happy with it until the corona storm hit.
Like pmward said, only the future matters. There is no guarantee that it will return to that $100 share price.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I’m holding it. The only reason I’m not buying more is because I’m trickling into VTSAX (total u.s. market) right now, and virtually nothing else.
I can’t take advantage of tax loss harvesting, and I see no point in selling at a loss. I still think of it as a quality company.
Not a very nuanced take, I know. But, as in your case, I don’t hold a lot of it. I believe the odds are good enough that it will be higher when I’m no longer in the accumulation phase.
Or it will be acquired by one of the behemoths, which would also be fine.
I can’t take advantage of tax loss harvesting, and I see no point in selling at a loss. I still think of it as a quality company.
Not a very nuanced take, I know. But, as in your case, I don’t hold a lot of it. I believe the odds are good enough that it will be higher when I’m no longer in the accumulation phase.
Or it will be acquired by one of the behemoths, which would also be fine.
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Up 11% this morning.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
When you have a big winner like that, it's best to look at your position like a trend follower. You want to use some form of a trailing stop. An easy way is to look at the 20 day moving average. The next time the stock goes down to it's 20 day moving average, buy. If it bounces off of it, you hold until the next test. When/if the stock closes below the 20 day moving average (I would probably give it about a 1-2% buffer below the 20 day SMA before you sell to avoid whipsaw), sell it all. Until it closes below the 20 day SMA, let 'er ride.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
-Nice - Thank youpmward wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:25 amWhen you have a big winner like that, it's best to look at your position like a trend follower. You want to use some form of a trailing stop. An easy way is to look at the 20 day moving average. The next time the stock goes down to it's 20 day moving average, buy. If it bounces off of it, you hold until the next test. When/if the stock closes below the 20 day moving average (I would probably give it about a 1-2% buffer below the 20 day SMA before you sell to avoid whipsaw), sell it all. Until it closes below the 20 day SMA, let 'er ride.
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Dividends for COF came in yesterday.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
.40 a share - looks like the same dividend payout since 2015
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... nd-history
I always struggle with price appreciation versus dividend yield
The amateur stock picker in me would rather just see the stock ticker go up
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Yeah, it's not a great dividend raiser, especially for a bank.GT wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am.40 a share - looks like the same dividend payout since 2015
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... nd-history
I always struggle with price appreciation versus dividend yield
The amateur stock picker in me would rather just see the stock ticker go up
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
COF Seems to be cominng back along with other banks. I bought some more shares a few days ago while selling other things. It’s the only bank I own, outside of VIMAX (mid-cap index)
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
I had a fantasy football draft with some of my old COF peers - I told them to get the stock back up to 100 - Not that they have any control on the stock price but it did make for a good laugh.
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
Down today, with most everything else.
- dualstow
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
@GT - FYI I did unload some shares at $80 today, per a limit order that triggered.
i don't feel great about banks.
i don't feel great about banks.
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Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
‘course capital one has been on a tear since I sold some shares.
Re: The one that got away - chance to get back together?
always how it works - credit card company's have some of the biggest stock swings since they own so much debt - well they call it outstanding loans and managed credit risk. When times are perceived to be positive the interest payments and late fees from subprime account are addicting - when times look uncertain, loan default risk kills the stock price in the short term.