Predictions for covid case count 12:01 AM 3/22/2020

[ochotona]

Good on you tech.

I was figuring my number assuming that testing would be widely available ("millions" I believe the promises said). Now that testing is actually going to be reduced rather than increased, I'm going to go with 80,000 for next Sunday.

I could go for a contest for the time of peak daily new coronavirus cases - that is inherently more predictable than the time that isolation measures will be lifted. For peak daily new cases, I'll predict April 15. For lifting of isolation measures I will guess May 31.

When do isolation measures get lifted? When new case count goes to zero, the test system is really up and running to detect new flares, and the medical supply chain and staffing are not stretched to breaking? Because all those four things would have to be met, in my mind. May 31... little more than two months from now? Seems soon to me.

[WiseOne]

Pick a date then! If you don't bet, you can't win.

Prize should be a gif picked out by dualstow :-)

[dualstow]

Uh oh, I better get working on that.

[Libertarian666]

Good on you tech.

I was figuring my number assuming that testing would be widely available ("millions" I believe the promises said). Now that testing is actually going to be reduced rather than increased, I'm going to go with 80,000 for next Sunday.

I could go for a contest for the time of peak daily new coronavirus cases - that is inherently more predictable than the time that isolation measures will be lifted. For peak daily new cases, I'll predict April 15. For lifting of isolation measures I will guess May 31.

What is the daily peak going to be? I hope less than 2.5 million.

[Mountaineer]

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Next PP survey date for ?: April 15

[dualstow]

It won’t be too long before we see one million worldwide cases.
Already 370K+

[Smith1776]

The growth in COVID-19 cases may make for a morbid, but effective, example of the power of compound interest to young people, and why they should invest...?

[Libertarian666]

The growth in COVID-19 cases may make for a morbid, but effective, example of the power of compound interest to young people, and why they should invest...?

I think most people would invest if they could get 30% a day.

[Smith1776]

The growth in COVID-19 cases may make for a morbid, but effective, example of the power of compound interest to young people, and why they should invest...?

I think most people would invest if they could get 30% a day.

Nah. 100% per day or nuthin'!

[dualstow]

What if the virus has some weird side effect, such as turning all the infected into savers/investors?

[Smith1776]

Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

[dualstow]

Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect, causing people to live for the moment and party like it was 1999. I meant something a little more scifi and silly: that the virus would edit the registry keys of our brains and cause us to be savers and investors without our conscious participation.

[Smith1776]

Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect, causing people to live for the moment and party like it was 1999. I meant something a little more scifi and silly: that the virus would edit the registry keys of our brains and cause us to be savers and investors without our conscious participation.

Hehe yeah I got what you meant.

And that's interesting. I didn't know that. You learn something new every day.

[Libertarian666]

Considering the financial hardship this virus has imposed on much of our population, I wouldn't be surprised if that actually happened.

The teensy tiny silver lining here is that it's a great time to introduce the Permanent Portfolio to people.

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect, causing people to live for the moment and party like it was 1999. I meant something a little more scifi and silly: that the virus would edit the registry keys of our brains and cause us to be savers and investors without our conscious participation.

As long as it made a backup first!

[Mountaineer]

Well since the Plague kept coming back it had the opposite effect,

Is the opposite effect of the Plague coming back, the Plaque?

Sorry, this is my "just checking in daily" post.

[dualstow]

:-) I will brush your plaque comment aside.
Keep checking in, M.

[Mountaineer]

:-) I will brush your plaque comment aside.
Keep checking in, M.

I'm laughing so hard my teeth are showing and glowing. Not sure about my arteries though.

[Mountaineer]

I see we already flu by my prediction for midnight tonight.

[WiseOne]

Not yet mountaineer! Here was your prediction:

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Was there another one?

[Mountaineer]

Not yet mountaineer! Here was your prediction:

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Was there another one?

Yes, in an earlier post I kept my 100,000 guess (for March 22 at 12:01am) that turned out to be a factor of 4 high, for midnight today (actually, for 12:01am tomorrow March 29). Time flu by too quickly. As of this posting, the number of cases is 112,560 in the USA. Thanks for the encouragement though.

[ochotona]

wake me up when it's 1.0E+06

[Tortoise]

wake me up when it's 1.0E+06

I’m guessing the actual number of infected Americans is at least 10x higher than the tested and confirmed number, so... rise and shine?

[WiseOne]

Not yet mountaineer! Here was your prediction:

Peak date: April 22

Lift isolation date: May 13

Was there another one?

Yes, in an earlier post I kept my 100,000 guess (for March 22 at 12:01am) that turned out to be a factor of 4 high, for midnight today (actually, for 12:01am tomorrow March 29). Time flu by too quickly. As of this posting, the number of cases is 112,560 in the USA. Thanks for the encouragement though.

Oh right, I forgot about that. Too many posts ago.

[dualstow]

Covid-19 is responsible for more American deaths than 9/11.
We knew it was coming, but geez, look at the global numbers. More than 810,000 cases.

[Mark Leavy]

Per this twitter post All cause mortality is significantly down in 2020. Primarily due to Covid-19 secondary effects.

mortality.jpg (92.62 KiB) Viewed 3956 times