mathjak's daytrading adventures

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vnatale
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vnatale » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:31 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 am
I think there will be a mad dash back to equities once the fear factor subsides
May you be a prophet!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 am

I do agree with mathjak that there will be a "mad dash to equities once the fear subsides". I do think that bonds are likely to have a pretty big pullback (and as mathjak is also noting, as interest rates get lower the volatility increases on all bonds and like a double edged sword that does cut both directions). However, while I think a short term pullback in gold would likely happen... gold is still in a relatively new uptrend. It was so oversold for so long that I don't see a big pullback in gold. I see at most a typical bull market pullback and then resumption of the bull trend. In a worst case scenario it goes back and retests that 1350-1400 breakout level. If it does, this would be a massive buying opportunity, imo. Gold tends to trend in bull and bear market cycles that last about a decade each. We literally are less than 1 year into this gold bull market. Why would it end so soon this time? Especially with negative real yields and tons of liquidity being provided to the system? Gold has much higher to go over the next 10 years, and any pullback would be a short term healthy bull market pullback at most, as such it would be a dip to be welcomed and bought not feared. Bonds are a trickier matter. I have no clue what will happen with bonds from here. We are in uncharted territory here. As such, any bet would be a guess at best. I see no reason to do anything other that just follow the rebalancing rules and call it a day.
Last edited by pmward on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:04 am

i certainly would trade the moves in gold short term ... gold and tlt gains seem to be like an echo and are only there until they are not ....they are very situation dependent and in my opinion more about timing the markets then time in the markets
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:12 am

Time in the markets seems to work pretty good for both to me... even better if someone were rebalancing along the way to generate alpha from the volatility that you are so afraid of: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

Now, if someone has the skill to actually trade these things short term, with a bit of luck they obviously they can generate substantial alpha. However, most people do not have these skills or luck (and do not forget I have some technical analysis skills myself) and there is nothing wrong with someone following a rules based rebalancing system. I think they will do just fine on the whole through this crisis and going forward.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am

I am not comfortable with holding Tlt and Gld as opposed to trading them treating them as I would my variable portfolio.... but then again I am never one to be happy being average either .....

But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:41 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:37 am
But for those who are comfortable holding them in this new world of insane volatility then what works works .......
Or as I like to call them, everyone else on the forum. O0
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:22 pm

Just put limit orders in for both Tlt and sgol ....they are now far enough below where I sold to take a shot on a pop
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:30 pm

Why SGOL if you're doing a short term trade? Not liquid enough. GLD is the ETF to use if you're just playing a short term swing. The spread bites you more than the ER in short term holds.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:03 pm

I started trading sgol because I don’t want to support hsbc bank who is the custodian for Gld .

I have no issues getting my trades s executed...my limit orders were hit about 10 minutes before the close .....both for sgol and Tlt .....I did not think it would hit but as trump spoke markets went up and Tlt and Gld down
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:49 am

so with TLT down almost 8% for the week and gold down more than 9% for the week it looked like a good entry point ... lets see if i get an exit point this week for gold and tlt that aint a stop loss ha ha ha .

interesting that for the week both a total market fund and gold fell just about exact amounts and tlt was within 1% of doing the same .

i can't say there was much if any of a SLEEP factor last week between any of them . all had horrible drops


morningstar shows for the week ,

vti down 9.74

gld down 9.06

tlt down 7.69
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:04 am

MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 am

amdda01 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:04 am
MJ,

How much did you drop for each?

And are you still looking for quick grabs (1-2% gains)?
how much goes in varies based on a lot of things .

right now i did 50k in each ...if it pope 3% or so monday it's gone .... if we sink 5% more i will add 25K to each ..... i have had as much as 500k in each at times ...it all depends what is going on in the other portfolio ....

right now i dont want to much in total bond funds , corporate , high yield , etc so that portion has the majority sitting in cash ... it will get deployed wherever value is perceived .

i would not commit to much to the pp at this stage ....

i think first hint of a resolution the 8-9% drop we saw in gold and TLT last week will be small potatoes compared to the drop when the fear factor ebbs ...especially because i believe we will see a surge in to equities at these reduced prices so money will flow out in record amounts in my opinion .

so i would need this corona thing to shake out before i would do a few hundred thousand in each again .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by pmward » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:19 am

Either way, the volatility of gold and bonds (and stocks for that matter) is bound to be really high again this week as we don't just have the virus news to contend with, but the Fed meeting and announcement as well. All eyes will be watching what the Fed does and says, and the markets will dissect and over exaggerate everything they do and say. God forbid Powell puts his foot in his mouth yet again at this time... I really hope they just cut rates, officially announce QE4, and that Powell says nothing beyond "we will do whatever it takes" in the speech because anything less than that I fear would be perceived as hawkish and exaggerate the selling in all assets.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:46 am

well one thing is certain next week ...I am either taking profits and out , or doubling down and waiting ……I just hope I don't get caught in a down draft for two long as I wait for a pop to get out …..we always have a flash in the pan at some point in gld and tlt . even if it is a day .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:36 am

"right now i did 50k in each ...if it pops 3% or so monday it's gone "

TLT up 4.30% - You out?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:22 am

no , i am holding that to offset my gold dip ... both are pretty much even since i bought friday ...

i added a little today to sgol to have it match tlt's balance
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:22 am

i hate adding more with tlt up so much even though i would like to add to sgol . but no rush , lets see what happens. i like keeping them even but with tlt plunging in a heart beat i don't want to pick a big up day .

of course my instinct is sell tlt and lock in the profit and just keep gold .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:45 pm

TLT +6.25%

Tempting enough?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:03 pm

omg , to funny . i just sold it ..... i couldnt resist a gain like that from just friday at the close.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:06 pm

Knew it.

Sittin' tight w/ gold?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:20 pm

no , that narrowed this morning to where it went from down 2k to down like 200 bucks so i sold and will wait for another opportunity . so overall made a few thousand since friday. out of both for now .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:49 am

early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:21 am

I respectfully disagree somewhat. I don't know what % cash would make me get through the past couple weeks if I was otherwise only in stocks.

Current delta is about 35% down on S&P from high, gosh, only a couple weeks ago it seems. Same delta on my PP is 14.4% down. So less than half the drop.

I suppose I could mimic that result with 50% cash and 50% stocks. But the pp is also about holding individually volatile assets to be able to rebalance.

But I see your point.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:27 am

i am sure there are pp users that are blown away by the pp falling 14% and are sick over it . there has to be simply because it is no different then the behavior we see in balanced funds .

morningstar and ibbotsen data shows investor behavior as a group is as bad in balanced portfolios as it is in growth funds ,just because those in them are more gun shy with lower pucker factor. so they get stressed out at lower trigger point ...so poor investor behavior shows the same effect ...

a 14% drop in a portfolio value is a lot , for any investor potentially if the dollars accumulated are high enough ... just 7% is a decade of 401k contributions at catch up for me
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by shekels » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:51 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:49 am
early am trading shows both gold and TLT taking it on the chin again .

lets see later ... i may be back in again ...


tlt shows down almost 2% and gld down 2.30%
that all can change over the day ...


i think anyone who thought the pp was a low volatility portfolio may be thinking otherwise ... it may be less than 100% equities but i would think the " pucker factor " is more than the bill of goods they hoped they were buying .

this is why i say charts mean nothing .. back testing means little .

all that counts is what happens to your money personally and how full your fuel tanks are when it happens .

the best or worst of times means little if you have little invested yet .... what counts the most is what happens when investments have substantial amounts.

all the talk of correlation between assets and the economy go out the window when it is our money on the line and and assets don't stick to the script of what was or was supposed to happen .

gold has plunged 10.25% in a week not counting today , at a time we would all think would be its day in the sun . but things like margin calls , liquidity , leverage and machine selling , etc all alter the equation to a point we can't even say we are correlating to economic outcomes reliably anymore ... rates go to zero , a recession looks eminent and bonds get beat up . ..

it is getting to a point the best choice may be equities and cash and season to taste with the equities portion ..
i agree with you on many points. When the house is on Fire even the furniture get burned.

Listen to this last night. Central banks have not fixed the problems from 2008
https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-co ... elasticity
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