Why Obama won

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foglifter
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by foglifter » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:18 pm

melveyr wrote: Maybe the republicans will shift towards a more ideological consistent platform: libertarian. I don't understand why the party of limited government in the economy is the same party that pushes for extreme regulation of our social lives. I guess I don't care either way because if they don't make the shift they won't win, and if they actually make the shift I might vote for a couple of them.
Just my crazy speculation: if more GOP supporters living in blue states vote libertarian we could break the dull 2-party election field. That's actually the only way to make your vote mean anything in a blue state.

I found a good blog post on the topic:

http://www.rightcondition.com/2012/10/w ... actly.html

"According to the Federal Election Commission your vote DOES matter.  In fact your vote matters far more if you vote third party, than if you vote major party while living in a State where the EC has determined the outcome.    Why does it matter?  If a third party candidate like Gary Johnson or Jill Stein obtains 5% of the total vote, two things happen.  First, they become instantly eligible to be a candidate on all 50 ballots.  As of now, neither GJ or JS have made it on all 50 and claim that they are being blocked by the major parties.  Secondly, and probably more important than anything they become eligible for federal funding matches."
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Gumby » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:21 pm

One theory as to the reason why conservatives are scratching their heads, wondering "why Obama won" is because they were all lied to about Romney's chances. He never had a chance, but for the republicans to admit that would have sunk their ability to fundraise.

So, it seems that the conservative pundits, the conservative pollsters, and the conservative media were all lying to their base and their billionaire donors in order to raise more money for Republican campaigns. Kind of sickening what money can do.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:26 pm

Gumby wrote: One theory as to the reason why conservatives are scratching their heads, wondering "why Obama won" is because they were all lied to about Romney's chances. He never had a chance, but for the republicans to admit that would have sunk their ability to fundraise.

So, it seems that the conservative pundits, the conservative pollsters, and the conservative media were all lying to their base and their billionaire donors in order to raise more money for Republican campaigns. Kind of sickening what money can do.
I think there's a simpler explanation than that: they all simply wanted him to win so badly that they fabricated an alternate reality in their heads where it was not only possible, but assured. Heck, Democrats did it less dramatically in 2004. Don't underestimate the power of the partisan mind to see what it wants to see without sinister shadowy moneyed interests even needing to play a part.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Reub » Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:56 am

Simonjester wrote:
foglifter wrote:
melveyr wrote: Maybe the republicans will shift towards a more ideological consistent platform: libertarian. I don't understand why the party of limited government in the economy is the same party that pushes for extreme regulation of our social lives. I guess I don't care either way because if they don't make the shift they won't win, and if they actually make the shift I might vote for a couple of them.
Just my crazy speculation: if more GOP supporters living in blue states vote libertarian we could break the dull 2-party election field. That's actually the only way to make your vote mean anything in a blue state.

I found a good blog post on the topic:

http://www.rightcondition.com/2012/10/w ... actly.html

"According to the Federal Election Commission your vote DOES matter. In fact your vote matters far more if you vote third party, than if you vote major party while living in a State where the EC has determined the outcome. Why does it matter? If a third party candidate like Gary Johnson or Jill Stein obtains 5% of the total vote, two things happen. First, they become instantly eligible to be a candidate on all 50 ballots. As of now, neither GJ or JS have made it on all 50 and claim that they are being blocked by the major parties. Secondly, and probably more important than anything they become eligible for federal funding matches."
I'm sorry. Did they hold the election yet? I've been away. :)
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by melveyr » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:08 pm

Reub wrote: I'm sorry. Did they hold the election yet? I've been away. :)
Hah.

We are so used to thinking that elections will change everything (I think the media feeds off of this). I think Reub's experience can help us remember that there are a lot more important things in our individual lives than the outcome of an election.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:10 pm

foglifter wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:51 pm
MachineGhost wrote: Despite the doomsday scenarios outlined by people like Munisteri, the Texas G.O.P. is far ahead of the national Party in dealing with the future. Two strategies are being tested. One is the kind of Republican identity politics exemplified by Cruz: the Party can continue its ideological shift to the right, especially on immigration, and appeal to Hispanics with candidates who share their ethnicity and perhaps speak their language. The more difficult path would see the G.O.P. retreat from its current position on immigration and take the direction advocated by Martinez de Vara and the Bush family.

If neither of these strategies succeeds, the consequences are clear. California was once a competitive state, the place that launched Ronald Reagan, but the G.O.P. there has now been reduced to a rump party, ideologically extreme and preponderately white. Republicans hold no statewide offices. After Tuesday, the Democrats also have a super-majority in the legislature, making it easier to raise taxes and overcome parliamentary obstacles like filibusters. In most accounts, the beginning of the Republican decline in California is traced to former Governor Pete Wilson’s attacks on benefits for unauthorized immigrants, which sounded to many voters like attacks on Hispanics. Farther east, in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico was one of the closest states in Presidential politics. In 2008, Obama won it by fifteen points. By 2012, it was no longer contested. Similarly, Nevada, which was fought over by both candidates this year, and which Obama won by six points, seems to have gone the way of California and New Mexico and will likely be safe for Democrats in 2016. The states aren’t identical: for example, California is more culturally liberal than Texas. But they all have growing nonwhite populations that overwhelmingly reject Republicans.


http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012 ... ntPage=all
Talking about California: there were a few props to raise all kinds of taxes on various levels (state, county, city). Everybody I know voted against the tax raises. But all the tax measures were approved. I guess the message is "YES, I vote for raising taxes on someone else, but not me". On the other hand unions successfully blocked the Proposition 32 to prohibit the use of payroll-deducted union dues to fund political campaigns.

There are several of us here from the Golden State, we'll see what it will be like to live in California now that the Dems and unions got unrestricted powers to do whatever they want.
Regarding your last paragraph...…..7+ years later how would you describe how it has been to live in California, i.e, what changes have you seen in the intervening years?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:22 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:10 pm
foglifter wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:51 pm
MachineGhost wrote: Despite the doomsday scenarios outlined by people like Munisteri, the Texas G.O.P. is far ahead of the national Party in dealing with the future. Two strategies are being tested. One is the kind of Republican identity politics exemplified by Cruz: the Party can continue its ideological shift to the right, especially on immigration, and appeal to Hispanics with candidates who share their ethnicity and perhaps speak their language. The more difficult path would see the G.O.P. retreat from its current position on immigration and take the direction advocated by Martinez de Vara and the Bush family.

If neither of these strategies succeeds, the consequences are clear. California was once a competitive state, the place that launched Ronald Reagan, but the G.O.P. there has now been reduced to a rump party, ideologically extreme and preponderately white. Republicans hold no statewide offices. After Tuesday, the Democrats also have a super-majority in the legislature, making it easier to raise taxes and overcome parliamentary obstacles like filibusters. In most accounts, the beginning of the Republican decline in California is traced to former Governor Pete Wilson’s attacks on benefits for unauthorized immigrants, which sounded to many voters like attacks on Hispanics. Farther east, in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico was one of the closest states in Presidential politics. In 2008, Obama won it by fifteen points. By 2012, it was no longer contested. Similarly, Nevada, which was fought over by both candidates this year, and which Obama won by six points, seems to have gone the way of California and New Mexico and will likely be safe for Democrats in 2016. The states aren’t identical: for example, California is more culturally liberal than Texas. But they all have growing nonwhite populations that overwhelmingly reject Republicans.


http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012 ... ntPage=all
Talking about California: there were a few props to raise all kinds of taxes on various levels (state, county, city). Everybody I know voted against the tax raises. But all the tax measures were approved. I guess the message is "YES, I vote for raising taxes on someone else, but not me". On the other hand unions successfully blocked the Proposition 32 to prohibit the use of payroll-deducted union dues to fund political campaigns.

There are several of us here from the Golden State, we'll see what it will be like to live in California now that the Dems and unions got unrestricted powers to do whatever they want.
Regarding your last paragraph...…..7+ years later how would you describe how it has been to live in California, i.e, what changes have you seen in the intervening years?

Vinny
I don't live in California, for which I am very grateful.
I do have to go there next week, and I'm going to keep my exposure to the insanity of that state to a minimum. I'm staying at a hotel in the airport and will be traveling to and from the conference by Uber.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:54 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:22 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:10 pm
foglifter wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:51 pm


Talking about California: there were a few props to raise all kinds of taxes on various levels (state, county, city). Everybody I know voted against the tax raises. But all the tax measures were approved. I guess the message is "YES, I vote for raising taxes on someone else, but not me". On the other hand unions successfully blocked the Proposition 32 to prohibit the use of payroll-deducted union dues to fund political campaigns.

There are several of us here from the Golden State, we'll see what it will be like to live in California now that the Dems and unions got unrestricted powers to do whatever they want.
Regarding your last paragraph...…..7+ years later how would you describe how it has been to live in California, i.e, what changes have you seen in the intervening years?

Vinny
I don't live in California, for which I am very grateful.
I do have to go there next week, and I'm going to keep my exposure to the insanity of that state to a minimum. I'm staying at a hotel in the airport and will be traveling to and from the conference by Uber.
I was going to ask this next question but then quickly realized I could get the answer on my own.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/206 ... alifornia/

For the last 14 years the population of California has increased every single year. Therefore, it is attracting certain type people but certainly NOT the person who regularly rides into our FORUM with the name of Libertarian666!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:02 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:54 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:22 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:10 pm
foglifter wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:51 pm


Talking about California: there were a few props to raise all kinds of taxes on various levels (state, county, city). Everybody I know voted against the tax raises. But all the tax measures were approved. I guess the message is "YES, I vote for raising taxes on someone else, but not me". On the other hand unions successfully blocked the Proposition 32 to prohibit the use of payroll-deducted union dues to fund political campaigns.

There are several of us here from the Golden State, we'll see what it will be like to live in California now that the Dems and unions got unrestricted powers to do whatever they want.
Regarding your last paragraph...…..7+ years later how would you describe how it has been to live in California, i.e, what changes have you seen in the intervening years?

Vinny
I don't live in California, for which I am very grateful.
I do have to go there next week, and I'm going to keep my exposure to the insanity of that state to a minimum. I'm staying at a hotel in the airport and will be traveling to and from the conference by Uber.
I was going to ask this next question but then quickly realized I could get the answer on my own.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/206 ... alifornia/

For the last 14 years the population of California has increased every single year. Therefore, it is attracting certain type people but certainly NOT the person who regularly rides into our FORUM with the name of Libertarian666!

Vinny
Yes, its population is still growing, but so slowly that they are probably going to lose a congressional seat after the 2020 census, for the first time since they have been a state. And 2010 was the first census where they didn't pick up a seat, so this is not a new phenomenon.

If they drive the top 1% of taxpayers out, their fiscal situation will totally collapse. Maybe that will finally make them reform.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:07 am

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:40 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:02 am

If they drive the top 1% of taxpayers out, their fiscal situation will totally collapse. Maybe that will finally make them reform.
Since the wealthiest people in CA are Hollywood elites and Silicon Valley millionaires, all of whom vote very Liberal, the collapse may drag on a lot longer than you think. There will be no middle class left, and a further increase in homelessness, but that's another topic.
Yes, they vote very liberal but the Silicon Valley ones at least can leave if they want to. I can’t imagine that they really want to pay a 50% state income tax rate.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by foglifter » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:10 pm
foglifter wrote:
Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:51 pm
MachineGhost wrote: Despite the doomsday scenarios outlined by people like Munisteri, the Texas G.O.P. is far ahead of the national Party in dealing with the future. Two strategies are being tested. One is the kind of Republican identity politics exemplified by Cruz: the Party can continue its ideological shift to the right, especially on immigration, and appeal to Hispanics with candidates who share their ethnicity and perhaps speak their language. The more difficult path would see the G.O.P. retreat from its current position on immigration and take the direction advocated by Martinez de Vara and the Bush family.

If neither of these strategies succeeds, the consequences are clear. California was once a competitive state, the place that launched Ronald Reagan, but the G.O.P. there has now been reduced to a rump party, ideologically extreme and preponderately white. Republicans hold no statewide offices. After Tuesday, the Democrats also have a super-majority in the legislature, making it easier to raise taxes and overcome parliamentary obstacles like filibusters. In most accounts, the beginning of the Republican decline in California is traced to former Governor Pete Wilson’s attacks on benefits for unauthorized immigrants, which sounded to many voters like attacks on Hispanics. Farther east, in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico was one of the closest states in Presidential politics. In 2008, Obama won it by fifteen points. By 2012, it was no longer contested. Similarly, Nevada, which was fought over by both candidates this year, and which Obama won by six points, seems to have gone the way of California and New Mexico and will likely be safe for Democrats in 2016. The states aren’t identical: for example, California is more culturally liberal than Texas. But they all have growing nonwhite populations that overwhelmingly reject Republicans.


http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012 ... ntPage=all
Talking about California: there were a few props to raise all kinds of taxes on various levels (state, county, city). Everybody I know voted against the tax raises. But all the tax measures were approved. I guess the message is "YES, I vote for raising taxes on someone else, but not me". On the other hand unions successfully blocked the Proposition 32 to prohibit the use of payroll-deducted union dues to fund political campaigns.

There are several of us here from the Golden State, we'll see what it will be like to live in California now that the Dems and unions got unrestricted powers to do whatever they want.
Regarding your last paragraph...…..7+ years later how would you describe how it has been to live in California, i.e, what changes have you seen in the intervening years?

Vinny
Vinny, I'm a bit envious as you have all the fun of reading all those old threads! 8)

As to the changes here in CA: I live in Bay Area so my experience is very location-specific. As most jobs are in hi-tech and the tech industry is doing well the traffic is becoming worse, housing market is tight, homelessness is on the rise. However great outdoors and excellent climate seem to outweigh the cons.

The migration patterns are interesting here in Bay Area: many techies and tech-related folks move to Texas and Washington as Austin and Seattle are growing as tech hubs and still are less expensive to live. Moving in are mostly foreigners - tech workers and students. So the outflows are domestic, while inflows are international. The problem is for any family to be able to buy even a modest home or condo here you have to rely on two professional incomes so it's very hard for people outside of tech to live here. Local authorities push for reforms in zoning laws to allow building multi-unit housing near the transport hubs, which many residents oppose.

I'm glad I don't live in San Francisco. When several major conferences move to other cities because of dirty streets this is telling... But that would be a topic for a separate thread.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by drumminj » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:31 pm

foglifter wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:39 pm
The migration patterns are interesting here in Bay Area: many techies and tech-related folks move to Texas and Washington as Austin and Seattle are growing as tech hubs and still are less expensive to live.
Which just brings more of those problems to Seattle (and I presume Austin). Granted, we already had issues, and yes, tech continues to grow here.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:50 am

drumminj wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:31 pm
foglifter wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:39 pm
The migration patterns are interesting here in Bay Area: many techies and tech-related folks move to Texas and Washington as Austin and Seattle are growing as tech hubs and still are less expensive to live.
Which just brings more of those problems to Seattle (and I presume Austin). Granted, we already had issues, and yes, tech continues to grow here.
Austin has some of the worst traffic in the country.
And of course they now have a bad and rapidly worsening homeless problem because they are "homeless-welcoming".
I'm so glad we never moved there. Our current plan is to move about 40 miles north of there, so we should be clear of the worst problems.
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