What is your current portfolio?
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What is your current portfolio?
I am interested to know from those who have been studying this a while, how many of you are still in the traditional vanilla 4x PP vs how many of you have done modifications (adding small caps or momentum etfs) or have changed your percentages entirely?
Last edited by jalanlong on Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- europeanwizard
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Re: What us your current portfolio?
I've only been using the PP since 2016, and already have had severe doubts about the PP... However I haven't actually changed anything, except maybe added a VP (Variable Portfolio) for about 5% of my total invested capital.
- vnatale
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Re: What us your current portfolio?
A correct inference is that you initially went 100% Permanent Portfolio?
Could you reveal how you invested each of the four segments (i.e., bought long term bonds or bought long-term bond fund, gold fund versus buying actual gold, and so on)?
Thanks
Vinny
Could you reveal how you invested each of the four segments (i.e., bought long term bonds or bought long-term bond fund, gold fund versus buying actual gold, and so on)?
Thanks
Vinny
europeanwizard wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:43 am I've only been using the PP since 2016, and already have had severe doubts about the PP... However I haven't actually changed anything, except maybe added a VP (Variable Portfolio) for about 5% of my total invested capital.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: What us your current portfolio?
I initially went all in with the PP in 2008 but transitioned to the GB about 3 years ago. The reason I did that was precisely for the reason people often warn about with the standard 4x4 - that it will be hard to stick with in times of prosperity when stocks are outperforming (hello Bud and Mathjak). The GB makes this much more palatable and if Tyler's charts are correct there is very little, if any, downside to it in comparison with the 4x4.
- europeanwizard
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Re: What us your current portfolio?
I'm in Europe, where we have to deal with negative interest rates and a rather lackluster economy. So I've got 25% gold ETF, 25% euro govt. bonds 7-10yr, 25% world stock market and 25% cash in a consumer savings account with high yield (and "high" meaning 0.5%).
- vnatale
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Re: What us your current portfolio?
Thanks for providing the requested information!
Vinny
Vinny
europeanwizard wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:55 pmI'm in Europe, where we have to deal with negative interest rates and a rather lackluster economy. So I've got 25% gold ETF, 25% euro govt. bonds 7-10yr, 25% world stock market and 25% cash in a consumer savings account with high yield (and "high" meaning 0.5%).
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
Underweight gold because of a rental property (inflation) and underweight US stocks because the rental is sensitive to US economy
Re: What us your current portfolio?
Similar story here. I started the PP in 2010 (first using PPRFX then switched to a 25x4 in 2012), then started moving to the Golden Butterfly about a year ago. My reason was different from Jackson's though - it's because historically, the eras where the PP is likely to outperform the GB are all less common historically than prosperity, whereas the GB's underperformance relative to the PP in other conditions is small. No VP. Active retirement accounts are a separate stock/bond portfolio.jacksonm2 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:34 pm I initially went all in with the PP in 2008 but transitioned to the GB about 3 years ago. The reason I did that was precisely for the reason people often warn about with the standard 4x4 - that it will be hard to stick with in times of prosperity when stocks are outperforming (hello Bud and Mathjak). The GB makes this much more palatable and if Tyler's charts are correct there is very little, if any, downside to it in comparison with the 4x4.
I've also been incorporating a slice of individual stock holdings into the GB's stock allocation - not as a VP like dualstow has done. I just decided I didn't want to be 100% into index funds...can't explain exactly why except that because they've become a dominant force in the market, so the likelihood of smart people figuring out how to game the system to my disadvantage goes up. And index funds are not a PP requirement per se; the portfolio works just fine with a basket of individual stocks.
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
Regardless of the exact variant, it is days like today that make me glad I am in the PP.
There is so much potentially bad news (or findable bad news if that's what you are looking for!) out there that I would probably never be invested. The PP allows me to be, regardless of the market behaving irrationally or not, whether that's stocks, bonds or gold. I don't need to divine what the direction is.
There is so much potentially bad news (or findable bad news if that's what you are looking for!) out there that I would probably never be invested. The PP allows me to be, regardless of the market behaving irrationally or not, whether that's stocks, bonds or gold. I don't need to divine what the direction is.
Re: What is your current portfolio?
std 4x25 pp here, i have a couple (very) small amounts of shv and edv that i picked up out of curiosity, but they are realistically way to small a percentage to consider them tilt.
i did have a 401k at a previous employer that i had put some small cap in, also due to curiosity(again probably to small to call it tilting) but it got converted to std 4x when i moved it after a job switch.
i did have a 401k at a previous employer that i had put some small cap in, also due to curiosity(again probably to small to call it tilting) but it got converted to std 4x when i moved it after a job switch.
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- Kriegsspiel
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
Vanilla PP here. My VP is all stocks at this point.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Re: What is your current portfolio?
Fairly vanilla PP here.
A small sliver of silver in the precious metals portion. I also have factor tilts in the equity portion. That's about it. Everything else is by the book.
Very satisfied with the PP strategy.
A small sliver of silver in the precious metals portion. I also have factor tilts in the equity portion. That's about it. Everything else is by the book.
Very satisfied with the PP strategy.
DITM
www.allterraininvesting.com
www.allterraininvesting.com
Re: What us your current portfolio?
Golden Butterfly indeed looks intriguing. What rebalance bands do you GB folks use?sophie wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:41 amSimilar story here. I started the PP in 2010 (first using PPRFX then switched to a 25x4 in 2012), then started moving to the Golden Butterfly about a year ago. My reason was different from Jackson's though - it's because historically, the eras where the PP is likely to outperform the GB are all less common historically than prosperity, whereas the GB's underperformance relative to the PP in other conditions is small. No VP. Active retirement accounts are a separate stock/bond portfolio.jacksonm2 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:34 pm I initially went all in with the PP in 2008 but transitioned to the GB about 3 years ago. The reason I did that was precisely for the reason people often warn about with the standard 4x4 - that it will be hard to stick with in times of prosperity when stocks are outperforming (hello Bud and Mathjak). The GB makes this much more palatable and if Tyler's charts are correct there is very little, if any, downside to it in comparison with the 4x4.
Re: What is your current portfolio?
Stocks 27% (mostly ITOT)
Bonds 23% (all 30 year T-bonds)
Gold 23% (mostly SGOL and IAU)
Cash 27% (divided between FDLXX /STTs/US savings bonds)
-No VP
-Annual Roth IRA conversions.
Bonds 23% (all 30 year T-bonds)
Gold 23% (mostly SGOL and IAU)
Cash 27% (divided between FDLXX /STTs/US savings bonds)
-No VP
-Annual Roth IRA conversions.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
Re: What is your current portfolio?
My IRA is a 4x25 in ESGV, VGLT, VUSXX, GLDM, and some individual gold coins (since lost at sea )
My 401k is essentially the same but uses the plan sponsor's cash and S&P500 funds.
Taxable cash is in an online savings account.
My 401k is essentially the same but uses the plan sponsor's cash and S&P500 funds.
Taxable cash is in an online savings account.
Re: What is your current portfolio?
I started PP in 2010, first it was all in PRPFX, then I moved to the classic PP, but eventually ended up with with a modified cashless version of GB:
25% FZROX
15% IJR
5% SCZ
5% DGS
30% FNBGX + individual LTTs
20% SGOL
25% FZROX
15% IJR
5% SCZ
5% DGS
30% FNBGX + individual LTTs
20% SGOL
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
Classical 25x4 HBPP
Re: What is your current portfolio?
Regular PP for 9 peaceful years.
- InsuranceGuy
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
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Last edited by InsuranceGuy on Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
40 Stocks
40 Long Bond
20 Gold
40 Long Bond
20 Gold
Re: What is your current portfolio?
Vanilla PP here. One PP for each tax regime.
Re: What is your current portfolio?
May I ask what drew you to that portfolio?
Re: What is your current portfolio?
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Re: What is your current portfolio?
Yes, that is the main reason.
As a foreigner from a peripheral country I cannot put together a local PP and I don't like the idea of being overexposed to the dollar either.
Notice that I am quite improvised as an investor so my reasoning surely has some flaw, but I think that the PP has a low correlation to the dollar. Not always but in general my currency moves in positive correlation to gold.
Thereby when the dollar strengthens in my country my portfolio is probably going down and vice versa.
So I like this portfolio for its return prospects and for the correlation it has regarding the dollar and gold (a little softer in both cases than the PP and a little less reactive to exchange rate variation).