dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
That makes more sense. The word "cheap" threw me for a loop there, haha.
Yeah, it looks like we got at least a bit more life. Today confirms a false break down of the key 2880 level. It makes no fundamental sense to me. Economic data weakening, earnings have been very poor this quarter, all kinds of macro headwinds, trade war, etc yet stocks are refusing to go down. Makes me wonder if there is some credence to Brent Johnson's theory that U.S. stocks will rally, not because things are good, but because things are bad. We will see, we do have that ominous Sept/Oct timeframe just around the corner. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Glad I'm in a GB at this point, as nothing makes much sense fundamentally right now. It's nice to be an observer this time around, with no money being bet one way or the other.
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins.
Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk.
I think of myself as a lemming who sprained his ankle 100 yards before the cliff face.
Yeah it is really funny listening to all the people freak out in my works investment Slack room. Most of the people on that board are not just 100% stocks, but heavy into gambling on IPO's and flavor of the month story stocks. Lots of tears there today. And me, I'm just sitting back from the comfort of my GB laughing all the way to the bank, haha.
Again, for historical sake, since tomorrow can and will be completely different, I post the three main assets 1 year comparison. I would not have called this by a longshot. I don't even think a gold bug or a bond bull would have got this right.
ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am
What a game of ping pong.
The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
This is a good time to say I’m glad I haven’t done much of anything with regard to trading this summer. Small moves, like Carl Sagan wrote in ‘Contact’
It’s all about asset allocation (touches pinky ring).
Abd here you stand no taller than the grass sees
And should you really chase so hard /The truth of sport plays rings around you
I've done some tinkering myself. Not anything particularly drastic, but enough to be noteworthy.
I've added a value tilt to the stock portion of my portfolio via the Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (VVL). However, my total stock weighting is still the canonical 25% in the aggregate.
I just have such a hard time getting behind value these days. I just don't think it's possible for it to shine until the financial repression is finally over. Value is tilted too hard to financials, and financials struggle as long as interest rates are held artificially low or negative. I think the day will come, likely a few years from now, when the central banks finally fully paint themselves into a corner and everything blows up in their faces. When that day comes, this will be the time I'll be looking to heavily skew towards value. I think value coming back goes along with Ray Dalio's "Paradigm Shift" that he is predicting in the next decade. Until that point in time, I think it's too early; I just don't think it's possible for value to outperform with such a large allocation to financials in an artificially low/negative interest rate environment.
