The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:27 pm

I don’t hold any silver to speak of, but you’ll make Ad O happy.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:05 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:27 pm
I don’t hold any silver to speak of, but you’ll make Ad O happy.
I generally don't speculatively buy when the market is moving violently up. Yes, I'm regretting not having bought more silver when it was under $15 oz. But that's life. Today was still a really good day.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:48 am

You too can become an analyst! Just learn how to speak out of both sides of your mouth. From Kitco this morning:

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:42 am

Don't just stand there... stand there and worry!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:56 am

That’s right, Corto. Always express concern, but leave hope! O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:26 am

Tariffs delayed, gold slammed, stocks surge!

What a joke these markets are!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:11 am

Not surprising, gold is right at a major resistance level. Not surprised to see a little struggle and cool off, regardless of fundamentals. It has recovered most of its initial losses with the tariff news this morning though. Honesty, I don't trust any of the markets right now. I still think stocks are going to be the asset to give first. This directionless volatile thrashing up and down every day feels an awful lot like last fall, right before the winter plunge. Although, I do also agree with Kitco that gold and bonds have come a long way, likely do have more upside over the medium to long term, but probably also need a cool off in the short term. I wouldn't be surprised if we have just pulled our defense forward over the last few months; in other words, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks plunge at some point before the end of the year, while gold and bonds basically just trade sideways instead of further gains. That's not to say they can't continue up, but I think in the near term they are both at risk of going parabolic, and that means that the more they rally the more they are both at risk of a short term plunge as well. What we don't want to see is a sell everything market, and if bonds and gold continue to go parabolic that becomes a tangible possibility. I think that a few months of sideways chop, or even a good 5-10% retrace pullback in both gold and bonds would be healthy for the long term uptrend (not to mention giving us more opportunity to add on by buying the dip). I'm still a believer in both bonds and gold long term, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't getting a bit queasy from the ride at the moment.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:11 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:26 am
Tariffs delayed, gold slammed, stocks surge!

What a joke these markets are!
Just wait until TLT gives up some of its recent gains. That will be painful.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:41 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:48 am
You too can become an analyst! Just learn how to speak out of both sides of your mouth. From Kitco this morning:

Image

Does this mean I’d get to hang around Daniela Cambone all day?

;D
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:55 pm

She is more smokin hot than a plate of Poutine
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:36 am

The damndest thing is that she's married... pretty sure anyway.

Really though, I personally think that some of the Kitco content is actually pretty good. They secure some decent interviews and such with various people in the industry.

I'd watch their videos even if Daniela weren't there... though with maybe just slightly less enthusiasm. ::)
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am

So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:17 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am
So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
I personally think that trying to strain to find a fundamental reason for what right now is still a short term move is silly. Short term, people buy things because they are going up and sell things because they are going down. There's simply nothing more to it than that. If the trend sticks for a couple years we will be able to look back and speculate on a reason, but even then, nobody really knows the reason behind these things. This is why I like technicals more than fundamentals. Gold started to go up because of fear, that led to a short squeeze, and now it's still got fear behind it, but the short squeeze caught the interest of the longs which brought momentum and FOMO into the party. This is how pretty much all new bull markets start, they bottom, start to go up, catch a short squeeze, then finally the momentum and FOMO crowds start to join in. Fundamentally speaking, gold was undervalued. Technically speaking, gold had formed one of the most beautiful long term bases I've ever seen, and it slowly over years finally built up enough steam to blow the lid off the pot.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:29 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:17 am
Technically speaking, gold had formed one of the most beautiful long term bases I've ever seen, and it slowly over years finally built up enough steam to blow the lid off the pot.
Same exact thing will happen to oil. Gold took six years, which means we have to look past 2020 for oil to do the same.

People are figuring out that Permian is a money-losing scam, and although electric cars are fine for what they are and do, Tesla is going to the wood-chipper too, and lots of things still need oil, and we've way underinvested in finding the oil we need in the 2020s and 2030s. Beyond 2030, yeah, maybe we use less oil per capita. But we will have 10 billion capitas?

I am looking at my ex-employer Schlumberger. They pay 6% dividend. Not time to buy, but someday. Trading 1/3 of price from mid 2014.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:50 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:32 am
So we are seeing an alternate universe for gold’s behavior right now. Random theories to explain:

The latest move IS simply a random event.
The latest is a return to mean event after several sucky years.
The latest is fundamentally driven...if the US is going to ZIRP now, better to hold something that returns nothing than something that nicks you -.5% every year.

Fact: US inflation is historically low right now (annualized 1.8%)

Other theories from the crowd?
The inflation is in the financial markets. Especially bonds. How long will it last? Dunno. But I'm riding the train same as everybody else.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:35 am

Took some TLT profits on Friday, holding in cash (2% dividend) to see if we get a dip in gold, will buy ETF in IRAs to supplement physical. Would like $1380 level over the next few months.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:52 pm

Did you hit a rebalance band then?

I'm not even close. Darn the PP for being so stable!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:45 pm

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:22 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:45 pm
LOL...

https://youtu.be/rLDwWKsWu50
I’ve seen that on cnbc and it creeps me out. Where are they running to? Are they werewolves? They scare me.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:48 am

I would not even look at GBTC above $5 per share
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:26 am

The BTC two peaks look like gold 1980 and 2011 !!! ;D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:53 pm

Goooooollllldddd!!
Untitled 2.png
Untitled 2.png (15.17 KiB) Viewed 14807 times
>:D
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:58 pm

1546 now
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:41 pm

oh my
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:02 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:41 pm
oh my
When is $1600?

But seriously it needs a breather at some point
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