Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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jacksonM
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by jacksonM » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
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pmward
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by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
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jacksonM
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by jacksonM » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm
Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:05 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
Yep.
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pmward
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by pmward » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:40 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:47 pm
pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:23 pm
jacksonM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:00 pm
Yeah, this seemed to be the first bona-fide "flight to safety" with some staying power that I've seen in a while. I think my portfolio is at an all time high.
Let stocks "correct" all they need to. If it keeps up I'll be trading some long bonds and gold for those cheap stocks everybody is selling.
Define "cheap". There is nothing about equities that I personally see that can be called anywhere near cheap. Even a 10-20% correction would still be expensive against any historical metric.
I define it as having hit the re-balance bands. I'm not smart enough to actually know when something is cheap or not so I just follow the system.
That makes more sense. The word "cheap" threw me for a loop there, haha.
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pmward
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by pmward » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:23 am
Yeah, it looks like we got at least a bit more life. Today confirms a false break down of the key 2880 level. It makes no fundamental sense to me. Economic data weakening, earnings have been very poor this quarter, all kinds of macro headwinds, trade war, etc yet stocks are refusing to go down. Makes me wonder if there is some credence to Brent Johnson's theory that U.S. stocks will rally, not because things are good, but because things are bad. We will see, we do have that ominous Sept/Oct timeframe just around the corner. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Glad I'm in a GB at this point, as nothing makes much sense fundamentally right now. It's nice to be an observer this time around, with no money being bet one way or the other.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:49 pm
It is nuts.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:34 pm
Stocks dump yesterday... I made $4000
Stocks soar today... I made $1400
Yessssss! I think I stumbled by sheer luck into the perfect portfolio for the present day. It's really odd! How is it doing this?
It's purely a result of getting stopped-out of equities and being too chickenshlt to jump back in, instead I took on risky "credit" bonds.
Stocks 8.2%
Aggregate bonds 15.5% (only bond choice in retirement plan)
TLT 15.9%
Credit bonds 34.4% (LQD, EMB, HYG, PFFD)
Gold 12.7%
Cash 13.3%
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:00 pm
Stocks 8%? Aren’t you a little young for that?
The credit bonds are quite volatile. They are my stock stand-ins.
Paul Novell's model went risk off twice in last 9 months, I have been extremely cautious about getting back in, and how I express my desire to put on risk.
I think of myself as a lemming who sprained his ankle 100 yards before the cliff face.
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pmward
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by pmward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:33 am
Yeah it is really funny listening to all the people freak out in my works investment Slack room. Most of the people on that board are not just 100% stocks, but heavy into gambling on IPO's and flavor of the month story stocks. Lots of tears there today. And me, I'm just sitting back from the comfort of my GB laughing all the way to the bank, haha.
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:10 pm
Again, for historical sake, since tomorrow can and will be completely different, I post the three main assets 1 year comparison. I would not have called this by a longshot. I don't even think a gold bug or a bond bull would have got this right.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:33 pm
Stock futures down more than 1% now. Looks like the market is not buying the spin from The Kudlow & The Munchkin.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am
What a game of ping pong.
The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:51 am
ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 am
What a game of ping pong.
The day after the long holiday weekend is the one to watch. If Friday is down, Tuesday is at risk.
This is a good time to say I’m glad I haven’t done much of anything with regard to trading this summer. Small moves, like Carl Sagan wrote in ‘Contact’
It’s all about asset allocation (touches pinky ring).
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Smith1776
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by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
I've done some tinkering myself. Not anything particularly drastic, but enough to be noteworthy.
I've added a value tilt to the stock portion of my portfolio via the Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (VVL). However, my total stock weighting is still the canonical 25% in the aggregate.
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Kriegsspiel
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by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon.
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Smith1776
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by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:37 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon.
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
Of all the companies I've done Phil Fisher style scuttle
butt research on, this one was by far the most enjoyable!
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Kriegsspiel
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by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:40 pm
How solid arrears there?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Smith1776
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by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:03 pm
Solid enough for my PP, that's for sure.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:10 pm
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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pmward
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by pmward » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:12 pm
I just have such a hard time getting behind value these days. I just don't think it's possible for it to shine until the financial repression is finally over. Value is tilted too hard to financials, and financials struggle as long as interest rates are held artificially low or negative. I think the day will come, likely a few years from now, when the central banks finally fully paint themselves into a corner and everything blows up in their faces. When that day comes, this will be the time I'll be looking to heavily skew towards value. I think value coming back goes along with Ray Dalio's "Paradigm Shift" that he is predicting in the next decade. Until that point in time, I think it's too early; I just don't think it's possible for value to outperform with such a large allocation to financials in an artificially low/negative interest rate environment.