Will Trump be Re-elected?

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1848
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8184
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu May 09, 2019 5:43 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm
moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
Can you help me with the math on that? 30 x $12 x 50 weeks per year = $18,000. I think I could figure out how to live relatively happily on $18k per year, but I could never live "a middle class lifestyle" I don think, especially if that includes having kids.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1848
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 5:51 pm

Yes, $18,000. Obviously it depends on your definition of middle class, but you can afford a decent apartment, a car, good food, clothes/furnishings/other durables, and some entertainment on that, which is the way I see lower middle class status. Maybe not with kids, but middle class single is doable on entry-level jobs.

EDIT

These are the numbers I'm thinking of
  • $650-750 rent can get a decent apartment in a city in the midwest, or a house in a less fashionable area
  • $220 for groceries, give or take depending on how much you eat, is plenty
  • $130 for transportation should cover whatever combination of transit/ridesharing, gas, insurance, maintenance
  • $40 is guestimating a premium for health insurance? Not really sure here.
That's $1,040 to cover the basics. $460 left over. If I was just starting out and didn't have a car or any furniture, I would be saving up until I could afford a good used car for $5,000 or so, or about a year of taking the bus. I'd probably also cut out processed and unhealthy food from my grocery shopping and put it towards buying some furniture (small apartments don't need much). Once you get that stuff taken care of, you can split the surplus up between savings and luxuries however you want. You probably have been promoted by this time too, so you'd be earning more.
Last edited by Kriegsspiel on Thu May 09, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm

In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class. That doesn't mean you can't make do on that. A lot depends on where your priorities in life are. My time in the Navy taught me how little I really needed and still remained fairly happy. There is definitely more to life than material things. But I don't know anyone who would call that a middle class income in a developed country.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1848
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 6:35 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm
In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class.
The argument I was trying to make was that you can blur the lines between poor and middle class by how you deploy your money. What I had in mind was something more like an aesthetic issue, not a pure dollars issue, in sense of the 3 Ladders class definitions, as opposed to Pew Research's "middle class income is between 1/3 and double the median."
There is definitely more to life than material things. But I don't know anyone who would call that a middle class income in a developed country.
If they didn't know that the person worked at McDonalds.. If they only knew that our hero had a car and an apartment (maybe he had them over for dinner or game night or something), and he organized a golf outing with the group the second Thursday of the month, went out for beers with the gang every once in a while, was clean and well groomed (being presentable is low cost/high value), was well read (library, baby!), and generally not stressed out about money, why wouldn't they think he was middle class?
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8808
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 09, 2019 7:53 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 6:35 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm
In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class.
The argument I was trying to make was that you can blur the lines between poor and middle class by how you deploy your money. What I had in mind was something more like an aesthetic issue, not a pure dollars issue, in sense of the 3 Ladders class definitions, as opposed to Pew Research's "middle class income is between 1/3 and double the median."


Is this a good time for me to plug earn dot org? I’m still checking it out, but..four stars in charity navigator.
Check out ‘Seattle’s Wage Mandate Kills Restaurants’ at WSJ | Opinion
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1848
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 8:21 pm

Well, they chose to locate their office in San Fransisco, so it doesn't seem like they're concerned with being good stewards of the donations they get as a charity. And they use the word "intersection." They also advocate for some stupid student loan policies too. So I'm voting no. Just link people to ERE or MMM or any of the tons of free content out there.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8808
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 09, 2019 8:39 pm

Hmm, I’m definitely not a fan of “intersectional.” Need more research. Thank you.
Check out ‘Seattle’s Wage Mandate Kills Restaurants’ at WSJ | Opinion
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 421
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by boglerdude » Thu May 09, 2019 10:37 pm

> Something that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it.

People dont like change. Gov should do more on this, some say UBI would help with mobility. I think high speed rail would be a better start. If the CA rail gets built, living inland would be more palatable.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3222
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Fri May 10, 2019 7:09 am

Some personal observations from living in a city that's as HCOL as it gets (NY):

- if you're earning minimum wage and working full time, you're most likely a recent immigrant and you don't speak English. You live in a neighborhood where the residents and retail businesses all speak your language (e.g.. Spanish), and you have a tight network of family & friends that are a critical support structure. In that situation, moving away is unfathomable.

- The HCOL city in question provides many services & benefits that augment that minimum wage income, e.g. food stamps and Medicaid, plus free transit if you're low income. Also, no need for a car.

- Most likely you actually work that minimum wage job part time. The rest of the time, you do something else and get paid a lot more under the table. Handyman or mover jobs, housecleaning, dog-walking/cat sitting etc, earns you a LOT more than minimum wage post-tax, probably $20/hour in cash on the low end. There's also the chance of landing a cushy, well paid unionized city job with generous benefits including a pension that you can start drawing on in your mid 40s.
User avatar
pugchief
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2938
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:41 pm
Location: suburbs of Chicago, IL

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Fri May 10, 2019 7:42 am

sophie wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:09 am
There's also the chance of landing a cushy, well paid unionized city job with generous benefits including a pension that you can start drawing on in your mid 40s.
Okay, I live in IL, the land of corruption and unionized government workers with outsized pensions. No group I know of can start drawing pensions in their 40s, so do tell. Hard to believe we can be out done.
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 375
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Fri May 10, 2019 8:34 am

US military pensions for those who entered before 1981 allowed service members to retire at half pay after 20 years active service. Retirement pay is protected against inflation by federal law. Retirees also received free health care and GI Bill benefits, access to the post exchange and commissary, and access to the global network of free space-available travel aboard US Air Force transports and charters.

At one time, the US Postal Service and many police and fire departments across the country had similar retirement plans, if not all of the fringe benefits of the military. Obviously, all those retirement plans (for new members) have been phased out and shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution schemes over the last 30-40 years.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
Post Reply