Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed May 08, 2019 8:46 am

“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
That's a great tag line. Groucho actually got wiped out in the crash of '29 after speculating heavily in the market including buying on margin. It took him a long time to recover financially and like so many people who lived through the depression, he was ever after the most conservative investor with a near neurotic phobia of debt.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am

Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am
Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 2:17 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am
Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
The underlined part is what I find baffling about the claim that "nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now". Who are these Americans and why don't they have jobs? And how can this claim and the claim that unemployment is at an all time low both be true?

Since very little is being done on the front of Trump's signature campaign promise, i.e. stopping illegal immigration, I don't see much hope of him being re-elected if the economy turns south.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Wed May 08, 2019 2:39 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:17 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am
Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
The underlined part is what I find baffling about the claim that "nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now". Who are these Americans and why don't they have jobs? And how can this claim and the claim that unemployment is at an all time low both be true?
It's the AOC "unwilling to work" crowd. I was in New Orleans recently and as we walked around the French Quarter there were panhandlers everywhere, often literally in front of stores/restaurants with help wanted signs in the window.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 2:54 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:39 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:17 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm


Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
The underlined part is what I find baffling about the claim that "nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now". Who are these Americans and why don't they have jobs? And how can this claim and the claim that unemployment is at an all time low both be true?
It's the AOC "unwilling to work" crowd. I was in New Orleans recently and as we walked around the French Quarter there were panhandlers everywhere, often literally in front of stores/restaurants with help wanted signs in the window.
That's probably some of them but the 102 million figure might also include people like me. I got laid off from my job almost 3 years ago and never returned to work. I was 67 years old at the time and decided to retire.

If that's the case it's a misleading statistic.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Xan » Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm

Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Thu May 09, 2019 7:18 am

Actually, unemployment is at its lowest in 49 years:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-cr ... 2019-05-03

When you add up the number of people living in the US not eligible or desiring to work, 102 million sounds about right. I'm perfectly fine with my 7 year old niece and 84 year old mother not having jobs.

There's nothing on that list that says anything useful about the economy, except possibly for the one about manufacturing output being down, if it's true. It's all just noise taken out of context. I guess no one really wants to admit that the new tax law may actually have done some good (except to the housing market, which is going through a probably painful adjustment period).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Thu May 09, 2019 10:40 am

sophie wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 7:18 am
I guess no one Democrat really wants to admit that the new tax law may actually have done some good (except to the housing market, which is going through a probably painful adjustment period).
Fixed it for you.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am

Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.

Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu May 09, 2019 5:43 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm
moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
Can you help me with the math on that? 30 x $12 x 50 weeks per year = $18,000. I think I could figure out how to live relatively happily on $18k per year, but I could never live "a middle class lifestyle" I don think, especially if that includes having kids.
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