Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:52 pm

With the exception of truly immediate cash needs (you know actual dollar bills hidden under your mattress for quick access), cash is an evil wasting asset and your goal should be to have none of it or the absolute minimum possible. Note, this is not the same as saying you shouldn't have very safe assets that provide a competitive interest bearing return. And, one should be diligent about getting the most you can out of your cash. I'm a Treasury Direct kinda guy, but CDs, ST bond ETFs, whatever, just ensure your cash is working. You leave a lot on the table if you don't and normally you are in fact losing somewhere between 2-3% annually for anything sitting around doing nothing. 10 years down the road, you got 75%ish of what you had in real terms.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:19 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 6:52 pm
With the exception of truly immediate cash needs (you know actual dollar bills hidden under your mattress for quick access), cash is an evil wasting asset and your goal should be to have none of it or the absolute minimum possible.
...
You leave a lot on the table if you don't and normally you are in fact losing somewhere between 2-3% annually for anything sitting around doing nothing. 10 years down the road, you got 75%ish of what you had in real terms.
But I've held gold for ~ten years! O0 I know- it doesn't work that way, which is why I continue to hold all four assets, but...I feel more positive about cash after reading the Portfolio Charts piece on it. It didn't change how much I hold. I just feel better now about what I do hold.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:44 pm

Gold is useless for the most part (not counting jewelry) but it’s pretty hard to argue against its usefulness in a diversified portfolio.
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:08 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:11 pm
Stocks good, gold bad
Missing daily reports... :P
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed May 01, 2019 11:39 am

Just in one month, my stock allocation went from 25% to 25.7%. Market went up, plus adds to my 401(k). I was happy to shave off that 0.7% today. I pretty much distrust this rally, so I'm keeping everything on a tight leash.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri May 03, 2019 9:06 am

Larry Swedroe is coming in person to talk to Houston TX AAII on June 1st !!! OMG...
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Tyler
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Fri May 03, 2019 1:18 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 9:06 am
Larry Swedroe is coming in person to talk to Houston TX AAII on June 1st !!! OMG...
Nice!

It looks like it's by webinar (not in person), but it does seem like a nice way to ask direct questions. Could be a very interesting talk.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 03, 2019 1:39 pm

How are Texans going to understand that accent? O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri May 03, 2019 1:45 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 1:39 pm
How are Texans going to understand that accent? O0
Webinar? D'UH!

Image
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 03, 2019 1:53 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 1:45 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 1:39 pm
How are Texans going to understand that accent? O0
Webinar? D'UH!

{Homer} http://images.fanpop.com/images/image_u ... 24_768.jpg
Can't a webinar include voice? Or is it like Reddit AMA in which (I assume) the host speaks his answers and they are transcribed?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Tyler
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Fri May 03, 2019 2:16 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 1:53 pm
Can't a webinar include voice? Or is it like Reddit AMA in which (I assume) the host speaks his answers and they are transcribed?
The meeting is still live at a hotel, and I imagine they will be live-streaming his presentation including voice and video ala Webex. It's not the same as shaking hands in person, but it's still a nice way to hear a good talk and meet other like-minded investors.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 03, 2019 2:42 pm

Thank you, Tyler. That's what I was thinking. I've only seen Vanguard webinars, and those were as you described.
I've never heard of Webex, but now I know it's not for cleaning spiders out of the corner of my den.
Tyler wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 2:16 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 1:53 pm
Can't a webinar include voice? Or is it like Reddit AMA in which (I assume) the host speaks his answers and they are transcribed?
The meeting is still live at a hotel, and I imagine they will be live-streaming his presentation including voice and video ala Webex. It's not the same as shaking hands in person, but it's still a nice way to hear a good talk and meet other like-minded investors.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon May 06, 2019 5:41 pm

More???

Markets Re-Plunge As Lighthizer Confirms Tariff-Hikes After China Reneges On Promises
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Mon May 06, 2019 5:50 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:41 pm
More???

Markets Re-Plunge As Lighthizer Confirms Tariff-Hikes After China Reneges On Promises
I think we all can agree the market is overdue for at the very least a small pull-back. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it was taken as "Meh" again tomorrow just like it was today. Today was the same behavior we were frequently getting last year on negative trade news, a dip in futures and at the open that reverses back up throughout the day. Last year day traders figured this out and it became a very popular and well known trade to buy the market on the mornings that it gapped down on a Trump tweet/negative trade rumors, because you could consistently sell it at the end of the day for a nice profit. It looks like a lot of those day traders used the same strategy again today, so they will likely do it again tomorrow.

Honestly, I think the only thing the market cares about these days is the Fed. Stocks are pretty much fully correlated to Fed expectations right now. Anything other than Fed rumors or actions (earnings, trade talks, etc) are all just taken as unimportant noise.
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Dieter
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Tue May 07, 2019 9:44 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:50 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:41 pm
More???

Markets Re-Plunge As Lighthizer Confirms Tariff-Hikes After China Reneges On Promises
I think we all can agree the market is overdue for at the very least a small pull-back. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it was taken as "Meh" again tomorrow just like it was today.
<snip>
Not a huge one day drop Tue, 5/7, but not exactly 'Meh' either.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring, but tis interesting times.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue May 07, 2019 9:52 pm

Dieter wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 9:44 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:50 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 5:41 pm
More???

Markets Re-Plunge As Lighthizer Confirms Tariff-Hikes After China Reneges On Promises
I think we all can agree the market is overdue for at the very least a small pull-back. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it was taken as "Meh" again tomorrow just like it was today.
<snip>
Not a huge one day drop Tue, 5/7, but not exactly 'Meh' either.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring, but tis interesting times.
Yep, today definitely didn't follow suite. But the S&P still closed just above support at 2880. So no real technical damage has been done yet. But if we lose that 2880 that would definitely signal that we are at the very least in a pull-back. Of course, after the run since late December, I think a pull-back is healthy and constructive long term. I think putting in a higher low through a successful retest of 2880, or even the next support line at 2800 would be good confirmation that the new up trend is legit. If we get a weekly close below 2800 I might start to get a little worried. But we will see.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon May 13, 2019 9:44 am

Image

Another fine mess the trade kerfuffle has gotten us into...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am

The best part of the PP, IMO, is a day like today.

When the financial media and talking heads are gnashing their teeth about the drop in the market, my PP is up a couple tenths and I can say meh.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon May 13, 2019 6:56 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am
The best part of the PP, IMO, is a day like today.

When the financial media and talking heads are gnashing their teeth about the drop in the market, my PP is up a couple tenths and I can say meh.
My Hideout Portfolio is down 0.28% today.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon May 13, 2019 7:09 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 6:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am
The best part of the PP, IMO, is a day like today.

When the financial media and talking heads are gnashing their teeth about the drop in the market, my PP is up a couple tenths and I can say meh.
My Hideout Portfolio is down 0.28% today.
-0.21% for my 4x25 HBPP today
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon May 13, 2019 8:59 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:22 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 6:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am
The best part of the PP, IMO, is a day like today.

When the financial media and talking heads are gnashing their teeth about the drop in the market, my PP is up a couple tenths and I can say meh.
My Hideout Portfolio is down 0.28% today.
what is a hideout portfolio?
25 equity, 10 gold, 12 cash, 53 intermediate Treasuries. I'm a long bond and gold chicken.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue May 14, 2019 7:54 am

Sounds like the newest 007 adventure.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 14, 2019 10:46 am

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:59 pm
I'm a long bond and gold chicken.
For a split second I read that as you being long chicken, makes me very hungry this morning.

It seems like you buy gold all the time, though, Ocho. I was cleaning up an old phone -- just bought a new one after five years. Pixel 3a, whoo O0 -- and I saw some offline notes like "Adopt Ocho's idea of a coin a month?"

After I wrote that note, it seemed like you were buying a lot of gold here and there.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue May 14, 2019 12:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:46 am
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:59 pm
I'm a long bond and gold chicken.
For a split second I read that as you being long chicken, makes me very hungry this morning.

It seems like you buy gold all the time, though, Ocho. I was cleaning up an old phone -- just bought a new one after five years. Pixel 3a, whoo O0 -- and I saw some offline notes like "Adopt Ocho's idea of a coin a month?"

After I wrote that note, it seemed like you were buying a lot of gold here and there.

I was buying, then I hit my target and stopped. No more for now.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 14, 2019 2:32 pm

Well, that's not chicken.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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