The GOLD scream room
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: The GOLD scream room
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
- I Shrugged
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2064
- Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm
Re: The GOLD scream room
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.stuper1 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Hmm. Just guessing but I would think that HB would expect that eight or so years of ZIRP would push stock prices higher... and that he'd just be recommending that people rebalance back to 4X25 whenever the portfolio gets stock heavy. Gold didn't work too well for a couple of decades but he still included it in his mix. Just my two cents.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pmWhen I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.stuper1 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I just watch Gold Rush to get a sense of how the market is doing.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Maybe, but I feel like I'd be leaving a lot more money on the table by diverting significant effort from my career to managing investments. My expertise is at a much higher level in my career than in investing, so the returns on effort should be correspondingly greater.
If your investing expertise is beyond the amateur level, e.g. you know as much as the professionals on Wall Street, then I guess the above makes sense.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
FWIW- A gloomy prediction on precious metals. The author believes they could be heading much lower.
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018 ... lapse.html
FTR- I do not subscribe, but who knows. The future is not predictable.
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018 ... lapse.html
FTR- I do not subscribe, but who knows. The future is not predictable.
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: The GOLD scream room
Radomski is the most negative "bull" out there that I occasionally read. The bullish gold stars never perfectly align for him, but are always just around the corner.
Of course, he's been right for a while though!
And as he points out, many sources remain consistently bullish on gold because they have something to sell you, just like stock analysts.
I'm fine with yet another washout. The final washout, yes, before the multi-decade bull run. Hah. How many times have we heard that.
Of course, he's been right for a while though!
And as he points out, many sources remain consistently bullish on gold because they have something to sell you, just like stock analysts.
I'm fine with yet another washout. The final washout, yes, before the multi-decade bull run. Hah. How many times have we heard that.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: The GOLD scream room
Sold more IAU...
Just not worth the agony and the hopium.
Now, 30/15/15/40 working towards 35/15/15/35
Should have done this a decade ago.
Just not worth the agony and the hopium.
Now, 30/15/15/40 working towards 35/15/15/35
Should have done this a decade ago.
- Ad Orientem
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3483
- Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
- Location: Florida USA
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
If that's what makes you comfortable then go for it. Just stick with whatever asset allocation you decide on. Switching portfolios because you are unhappy with how one asset is performing also means locking in losses.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd,
Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.
http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/
Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004
Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.
http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/
Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004
Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: The GOLD scream room
It’s a tax loss for now and possibly a TLH with rebuy in 31 days.Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:34 pm If that's what makes you comfortable then go for it. Just stick with whatever asset allocation you decide on. Switching portfolios because you are unhappy with how one asset is performing also means locking in losses.
If gold goes up I still have the lion’s share invested and that should be sufficient.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 1317
- Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd's right, gold is moribund. For centuries it was needed for trade, but now we have fiat. Yes fiat burns up but thats the idea, you're not supposed to hold it. As India evolves, they'll drop gold too. It might still have some utility as a measuring stick.
Edit: Fun story about gold in Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... peculators
Edit: Fun story about gold in Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... peculators
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
I don’t know, they’ve been saying that for a looong time. Especially every time it’s down.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Look at the price performance of GLDW vs GLD since mid-April 2018. Gold's suck is purely due to the strong US dollar. If you hate gold at this time, you're betting the USD will continue strong . Hmmm... this too shall pass.
The SPDR® Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLDW) offers investors an innovative way to access the gold market by removing the potential negative influence of a strong U.S. dollar (USD) on the price of gold. GLDW seeks to track the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a long position in the US dollar against a basket of non-US currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The structure of this ETF effectively provides investors the benefit of owning an exposure to gold as though they had purchased it using a basket of six, non-US dollar currencies.
The SPDR® Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLDW) offers investors an innovative way to access the gold market by removing the potential negative influence of a strong U.S. dollar (USD) on the price of gold. GLDW seeks to track the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a long position in the US dollar against a basket of non-US currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The structure of this ETF effectively provides investors the benefit of owning an exposure to gold as though they had purchased it using a basket of six, non-US dollar currencies.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yes it is, currency diversification.MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:00 amIsn't that the whole point of holding gold (HBPP) in the first place?ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:41 am Look at the price performance of GLDW vs GLD since mid-April 2018. Gold's suck is purely due to the strong US dollar. If you hate gold at this time, you're betting the USD will continue strong . Hmmm... this too shall pass.
The SPDR® Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLDW) offers investors an innovative way to access the gold market by removing the potential negative influence of a strong U.S. dollar (USD) on the price of gold. GLDW seeks to track the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a long position in the US dollar against a basket of non-US currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The structure of this ETF effectively provides investors the benefit of owning an exposure to gold as though they had purchased it using a basket of six, non-US dollar currencies.
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: The GOLD scream room
Might as well scream a little. Stocks way up because possible slowing of interest rate hike slowdown and TLT down and gold flat?
I think Budd has it right!
I think Budd has it right!
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 751
- Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm
Re: The GOLD scream room
Good refresh. I like the part somewhere around 25 minutes about supply and DEMAND for cash in regards to inflation.Hal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:47 pm Budd,
Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.
http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/
Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004
Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: The GOLD scream room
Speaking with my actions these days instead of voicing my displeasure. People need to see the light on their own.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:25 pm Might as well scream a little. Stocks way up because possible slowing of interest rate hike slowdown and TLT down and gold flat?
I think Budd has it right!
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
Maybe it's time to review how gold is doing versus other currencies, since gold's "performance" with regard to the dollar in the short term, is really just about the dollar.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: The GOLD scream room
In the stuff I track, with a 1 Yr return, look who's the least stinky now....
Re: The GOLD scream room
But that's not what Harry Browne promised us. He said that every single day that stocks go down, gold will go up twice as much. Right? He did say that, didn't he? I'm pretty sure I heard that somewhere.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: The GOLD scream room
You forgot your /s tag.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.