Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:14 am

I would have put a billion in each of the PP assets and let the rest ride. Pretty sure my, and the next 200 generations in my family would be ok.

Now for us peons in the PP who don't have that many zeros in their net worth, today is yet another painful day. Getting close for me to the max down % I have had for the year.

It makes me understand the usefulness of the rebalancing bands. I can't tell you how many times I've said to myself, it (GLD/TLT) just can't go any lower, and in a previous life, I would have averaged down, only to see it go lower. The bands are at such painful losses for each asset that they work better than guessing. Same for upside bands, but feels like I will never see that on any asset, except cash.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:26 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:14 am
I would have put a billion in each of the PP assets and let the rest ride. Pretty sure my, and the next 200 generations in my family would be ok.

Now for us peons in the PP who don't have that many zeros in their net worth, today is yet another painful day. Getting close for me to the max down % I have had for the year.

It makes me understand the usefulness of the rebalancing bands. I can't tell you how many times I've said to myself, it (GLD/TLT) just can't go any lower, and in a previous life, I would have averaged down, only to see it go lower. The bands are at such painful losses for each asset that they work better than guessing. Same for upside bands, but feels like I will never see that on any asset, except cash.
Took the words out of my mouth...
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:28 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:14 am
..
Now for us peons in the PP who don't have that many zeros in their net worth, today is yet another painful day.
..
I'm like John D Rockefeller. The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm

It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:08 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm
It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...
Budd, it's always mentioned, in the form of "The assets are not designed to all move in the same direction."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:12 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:08 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm
It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...
Budd, it's always mentioned, in the form of "The assets are not designed to all move in the same direction."
Haha, see the irony in that statement with everything down today. Just venting...just sad that we sit for 8 years waiting for either GLD or TLT to rally enough to rebalance. Now that stocks are feeling some pain, they still go down. Hmmm..
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:40 pm

Not that it makes anyone feel better, but gold got slammed in 2008 as stocks were getting hit, while bonds kind of treaded water before popping, so this is not unusual.

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by hardlawjockey » Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:10 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:54 am
It's definitely a loss. Mark to market is the most honest accounting method, because we don't know what the future holds. We only know the value of an asset in the present. It might go up or down in the future, nobody knows.
My Dad never invested a single penny in the stock market and thought I was foolish to do so. Whenever there was a big market crash like the one in 1987, he would always ask me how much money I lost. My answer was always the same - not a penny - I still own all the stock I had before and none of the companies went bankrupt.

So that's basically where my head is at when it comes to the word "loss".

And in addition to the IRS rules, there is the very definition of the word "investment" - In general, to invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future . Given that, it seems to me that what is meant by "loss" in this one-day context, is really that my investments don't look so good on paper today as they did yesterday. If you want to call this a "loss", that is only in your mind - unless you decide to lock it in, of course.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:52 pm

Or your ETF manager locks in a loss for you?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 6#p4037666
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:42 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:12 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:08 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm
It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...
Budd, it's always mentioned, in the form of "The assets are not designed to all move in the same direction."
Haha, see the irony in that statement with everything down today. Just venting...just sad that we sit for 8 years waiting for either GLD or TLT to rally enough to rebalance. Now that stocks are feeling some pain, they still go down. Hmmm..
Maybe we should amend it to, unless the direction is down. O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pugchief » Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:27 pm

Why isn't anyone whining that all 3 assets are in the same direction (UP) today? :D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by hardlawjockey » Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:39 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:27 pm
Why isn't anyone whining that all 3 assets are in the same direction (UP) today? :D
Human nature is weird, isn't it?

Who tunes into the news expecting to hear something positive?
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