Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:19 am

ochotona wrote:It's quiet here... Maybe TOO quiet...
It's just been too crazy. I think people are tired of screaming. O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:54 pm

It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:56 pm

buddtholomew wrote:It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.
Until tomorrow... ;)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.
Until tomorrow... ;)
Yes, but I’m ok with that.
What I’m not OK with is stocks gaining and the PP losing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:04 am

Up! Down! Up! Down!

I assume the Flash Boys have been making a killing lately.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:15 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:Up! Down! Up! Down!

I assume the Flash Boys have been making a killing lately.
The good ones are making a killing. The bad ones are getting killed.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:55 pm

Maybe I'm out of touch, but how can front-running lose money?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:49 am

I wonder if gambling were legal, stock volatility would decrease
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:06 am

"Trump threatens government shutdown in September if no funding for wall"

This might be the "bullet in the head" during a seasonally weak time for stocks at the end of a by then 9.5 year run.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:04 am

The funny thing about these articles on predicting stock market performance is that they go entirely by trend lines, ratios etc...which are great ways of describing what happened after the fact. I found it hilarious that an article referring to the stock market drop of 2009 can manage to completely ignore the actual reason why it happened, as opposed to the valuation & trend line explanation.

I thought Harry Browne described this very well: the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:25 am

sophie wrote:the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.
I like this one.

Also, another one I like, but forget the source (and I'm paraphrasing)..

"The past doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:48 am

I believe it is the custom, when the source is unknown, to attribute quotes to Mark Twain.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:16 am

I just looked it up. Yeah, erroneously attributed to Mark Twain. It was found in a book of poems by a poet, a guy named Colombo -- no, not the Lieutenant. Colombo. But the poet claimed he wasn't the original source either.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:32 pm

If the past rhymes, then are those who are doomed to repeat history lyrical geniuses?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Tue May 01, 2018 7:49 am

Alternatively, you can always quote Yogi Berra:

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

My personal favorite though is one that might also apply to investing:

"Nobody goes there. It's too crowded."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue May 01, 2018 8:27 am

Eufo makes a mistake attributional
Tortoise wonders if we're simply rapper tools
But it's history that rhymes
The people are just lines
And now we're off topic like usual
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue May 01, 2018 8:44 am

No one is making any money this year so far it seems....
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue May 01, 2018 12:23 pm

True Corto, but look the PP is no better.
We need to internalize this.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed May 02, 2018 8:26 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:Eufo makes a mistake attributional
Tortoise wonders if we're simply rapper tools
But it's history that rhymes
The people are just lines
And now we're off topic like usual
Image
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 03, 2018 12:48 pm

Haha O0
Makes me miss Medium Tex's drawn-out rap lyrics.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu May 17, 2018 11:39 am

Although I’ve been 70/30 in retirement accounts I want to thank Tyler for opening my eyes on the benefit of SCV and how it complements the PP portfolio. Making that change towards GB has made all the difference.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:32 pm

Come on stocks, you can offset the losses in GLD and TLT.
I can, but only if you hold more of me than the other assets.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:38 pm

Has anybody here ever compared the total market capitalization of stocks, LTTs, gold, and cash?

If we assume that money "sloshes" between those four assets -- i.e., that if it flows out of one, a roughly equal amount must flow into one or more of the others -- then the portfolio would maintain a constant value only if the four assets were allocated according to total market capitalization, right?

It would be interesting to see those four percentages...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:52 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:38 pm
Has anybody here ever compared the total market capitalization of stocks, LTTs, gold, and cash?

If we assume that money "sloshes" between those four assets -- i.e., that if it flows out of one, a roughly equal amount must flow into one or more of the others -- then the portfolio would maintain a constant value only if the four assets were allocated according to total market capitalization, right?

It would be interesting to see those four percentages...
Well If, for instance, all assets were worth $25, and everyone wanted to sell stocks, they'd keep dropping in value until someone felt like buying them. If nobody wanted to buy them until they were at $5, then the total market cap of this economy would be $80. So some money went from, say, cash to stocks, but $20 of value is gone.
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