How to Invest in an Overpriced World

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by jhogue »

Investors in the PP will want to read Burton Malkiel's editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, "How to Invest in an Overpriced World."

Malkiel, a Princeton economics professor whose book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has become an investment classic that foresaw and supported the rise of passive investment strategies, endorses three strategies in his op-ed:

1. Broad diversification of asset classes.

2. Periodic rebalancing.

3. Paying attention to cost.

If you have invested in the PP, you have/are doing all three.

To be sure, Malkiel endorses some assets Harry Browne taught us to shun-- including REITs, emerging markets, and preferred shares. Nonetheless, there is plenty here to argue about as we face a new year in which all assets seem richly valued and, as Grandpa used to say, "Thur ain't nuthin' cheap out thur!"
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

Found it, thanks!

Btw, when I searched it popped up along with the line:
Appeared in the 1月 23, 2018, print edition.
月 is the Chinese (and Japanese) character for month, so 1月 is January. Not sure why it's on my screen, though.
🍍
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by buddtholomew »

The article pays homage to Bogle and the recommendations are aligned with the Boglehead philosophy.
The PP is referenced in the BH wiki as a passive portfolio which fits Malkiel's perspective rather well.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Kriegsspiel »

dualstow wrote:Found it, thanks!

Btw, when I searched it popped up along with the line:
Appeared in the 1月 23, 2018, print edition.
月 is the Chinese (and Japanese) character for month, so 1月 is January. Not sure why it's on my screen, though.
Every once in a while I see Chinese characters on these phpBB forums, Google news, and a few other places. I think I posted a screenshot here before. I simply assume Unit 63198 is targeting me and move on with my life.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

O0
🍍
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Libertarian666 »

jhogue wrote:Investors in the PP will want to read Burton Malkiel's editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, "How to Invest in an Overpriced World."

Malkiel, a Princeton economics professor whose book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has become an investment classic that foresaw and supported the rise of passive investment strategies, endorses three strategies in his op-ed:

1. Broad diversification of asset classes.

2. Periodic rebalancing.

3. Paying attention to cost.

If you have invested in the PP, you have/are doing all three.

To be sure, Malkiel endorses some assets Harry Browne taught us to shun-- including REITs, emerging markets, and preferred shares. Nonetheless, there is plenty here to argue about as we face a new year in which all assets seem richly valued and, as Grandpa used to say, "Thur ain't nuthin' cheap out thur!"
I think gold is pretty cheap.

That's about it.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Agreed.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

I don't know whether or not it'll help gold, but the Doomsday Clock is now 2 minutes to midnight:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-doomsday- ... e-midnight
🍍
Don
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:21 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Don »

dualstow wrote:I don't know whether or not it'll help gold, but the Doomsday Clock is now 2 minutes to midnight:

http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-doomsday- ... e-midnight
Don't worry. As soon as the next Democrat takes office they'll turn back the hands of time.
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by jhogue »

Libertarian666 wrote:
jhogue wrote:Investors in the PP will want to read Burton Malkiel's editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, "How to Invest in an Overpriced World."

Malkiel, a Princeton economics professor whose book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has become an investment classic that foresaw and supported the rise of passive investment strategies, endorses three strategies in his op-ed:

1. Broad diversification of asset classes.

2. Periodic rebalancing.

3. Paying attention to cost.

If you have invested in the PP, you have/are doing all three.

To be sure, Malkiel endorses some assets Harry Browne taught us to shun-- including REITs, emerging markets, and preferred shares. Nonetheless, there is plenty here to argue about as we face a new year in which all assets seem richly valued and, as Grandpa used to say, "Thur ain't nuthin' cheap out thur!"
I think gold is pretty cheap.

That's about it.
I thought of expressing some skepticism of Libertarian666's all-weather enthusiasm for gold until I saw the following headline in today's Wall Street Journal:

"Gold Surge Accelerates as Dollar Falls:
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Libertarian666 »

jhogue wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
jhogue wrote:Investors in the PP will want to read Burton Malkiel's editorial in today's Wall Street Journal, "How to Invest in an Overpriced World."

Malkiel, a Princeton economics professor whose book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has become an investment classic that foresaw and supported the rise of passive investment strategies, endorses three strategies in his op-ed:

1. Broad diversification of asset classes.

2. Periodic rebalancing.

3. Paying attention to cost.

If you have invested in the PP, you have/are doing all three.

To be sure, Malkiel endorses some assets Harry Browne taught us to shun-- including REITs, emerging markets, and preferred shares. Nonetheless, there is plenty here to argue about as we face a new year in which all assets seem richly valued and, as Grandpa used to say, "Thur ain't nuthin' cheap out thur!"
I think gold is pretty cheap.

That's about it.
I thought of expressing some skepticism of Libertarian666's all-weather enthusiasm for gold until I saw the following headline in today's Wall Street Journal:

"Gold Surge Accelerates as Dollar Falls:
I do like gold a lot, but that doesn't mean I always think it is cheap.
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by jhogue »

Thanks for correcting my mis-perception of your views on gold.

You may be correct that gold is under-valued at the moment, but how can you tell?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

jhogue wrote:I thought of expressing some skepticism of Libertarian666's all-weather enthusiasm for gold until I saw the following headline in today's Wall Street Journal:

"Gold Surge Accelerates as Dollar Falls:
It's mid-afternoon now, and all I see is 'Gold Falls as Dollar Rebounds, Treasury Yields Rise' in the same paper.
🍍
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

P.S. also -
'The Highest-Yielding Treasury Bond Isn’t Declining Like Its Peers'
The yield on the 30-year bond has been relatively stable, weighed down by doubts about a long-term pickup in inflation
🍍
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by buddtholomew »

Red across the landscape today.
Doing nothing.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by ochotona »

buddtholomew wrote:Red across the landscape today.
Doing nothing.
No fun. I keep listening to podcasts where the speakers talk about a world where bonds and stocks aren't anti-correlated... where they go down together. These thoughts don't make me happy. The more I think about it, the more I think about gold and cash.
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by eufo »

Cash is going up! It never feels good, though.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Libertarian666 »

jhogue wrote:Thanks for correcting my mis-perception of your views on gold.

You may be correct that gold is under-valued at the moment, but how can you tell?
It is a couple of years off a major bottom and has been rising slowly and erratically for those years. There is no enthusiasm for it in the financial media.

Also, buddtholomew hates it.

But that last one may be permanent and thus would not have any predictive value. :D
User avatar
jhogue
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 755
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by jhogue »

Do you think that bitcoin is affecting the gold market? If so, how??
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by Libertarian666 »

jhogue wrote:Do you think that bitcoin is affecting the gold market? If so, how??
Who knows? But I doubt it has any significant influence. The markets for the two assets are too different, in my opinion anyway.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14280
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: How to Invest in an Overpriced World

Post by dualstow »

jhogue wrote:Do you think that bitcoin is affecting the gold market? If so, how??
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9238&hilit=gold+losing+bitcoin
🍍
Post Reply