Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:38 pm

I discovered last week that I’m really at 45% stocks, all told, and I don’t like it. Still, I don’t think I can bring myself to buy.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:27 pm

I am at 35% as well and happy there...
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:16 am

If you are buy and holder, 25%-35% is just fine in this market.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:44 pm

In PP at 30%, VP at 70%, combined 55% equities.
This party will end but not today ;D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:52 pm

UBS has an upside target of 3300 for SP500 by end 2018. That's 27.7% higher. Mid case 2900, low case 2200.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:04 pm

ochotona wrote:UBS has an upside target of 3300 for SP500 by end 2018. That's 27.7% higher. Mid case 2900, low case 2200.
We think it will be between 2200 and 3300...wow, thanks for the narrow range ???
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:28 pm

Asia selling off right now. Samsung down 4% in the local Korean stock exchange.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:04 pm

Just saying, it would be nice one day to see gold saved on a daily basis as much as the market is. Another rocket, meh. Tax reform, yea!

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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:08 pm

The extra juice that SCV provides makes this a great day. AU outperformed as far as I am concerned given USD was stronger on the day relative to a basket of currencies (UUP).

But I agree...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:30 pm

New article from Schwab today

I Melt with You: Anatomy of a Market Melt Up
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:50 am

Sche emerging markets up 1.36%
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:10 pm

IJS + 1.6%
This is more than a melt up, but it sure looks like this will continue if buybacks remain strong. If the tax bill fails, we’re in for a nasty surprise.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:49 pm

Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:49 pm

This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:39 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...
Hah, well IIRC you bought a house in SoCal, which is waaaaaaay different from what I'm planning to do, which is buy a fixer-upper in the Rust Belt for, say, $30,000 in cash.

But yes, if I sold stocks and the peak, then bought a property after everything crashed... I'd probably write a book about how my strategy is the shit and make a bunch of money. Hell, if real estate prices crashed by the time I'm buying, I'd just buy a non-fixer and plug the rehab money back into the stock market.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:35 pm

ochotona wrote:Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.
@LizAnnSonders

"We have been writing about the “risk” of a melt-up for a while now- becoming clearer that’s what we’re experiencing- discipline, rebalancing, diversification all crucial"

Liz Ann is Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:38 pm

US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:43 pm

My International Growth fund is + 6% YTD, not including today which will be another 1%+
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:27 pm

Budd, you'll be retiring by March...

Fear Of Missing Out. Heard a story that more retail investors are starting to get in. Now. Finally. Hah.

Three things:

1) The PP has kept me in stocks. I either still would have never gotten back in from 2009 if it wasn't for the PP, or I would have gotten in and bailed early again. I guarantee it. Instead I get to enjoy it.

2) It looks like these tax cuts are working at least for now, with Apple bringing back money and jobs, various companies giving pay hikes and bonuses, etc.

3) When it happens, this is going to be the mother of all crashes taking everyone down that doesn't have some gold in hand. Or at least that's what I think.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:31 pm

Haha, I was thinking for my birthday in Feb.
Agree, I would have sold to cash to “lock-in” profits countless times between 2009 and today. PP has kept me in stocks too.
It’s certainly been more challenging to stay in Gold and Bonds.
Nevertheless, I am happy with the PP’s performance and combined with a stock heavy global PP the combination has been rewarding.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:53 pm

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:08 am

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
Uh oh
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:54 am

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
I love it! Ha!

This run up is amazing. Obviously it has to end at some point, but you gotta love the ride!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:36 am

Some of the year-end 2018 S&P500 targets called by various analysts were in the 2850 range, we hit it today. Weird.
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