Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:49 am

Libertarian666 wrote:Most people who follow the short-term behavior of every asset in their portfolio will be upset a lot of the time.

Personally, I follow my portfolio performance weekly and it doesn't bother me. But I know I'm weird, and don't recommend this to others.
I'm hooked into high frequency trading algorithms so I can be disappointed and nervous thousands of times per minute.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:51 am

mathjak107 wrote:not true . most who follow models like the pp or other conservative models do so because they don't want the high peaks and deep valleys to deal with in the short term .

longer term investing has temporary short term drops irrelevant so there is little logic to mitigating short term drops over a normal accumulation stage which spans lots of years . mitigating temporary short term dips that permanently reduce long term gains has no no logic to a long term investor .

so it is either pucker factor or shorter time frames that have someone going more conservative .

it is the shorter term many who use conservative portfolio's are concerned with , not the world ending as we know it .
That is a problem for psychologists, not investment analysts.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:52 am

well it is what it is and that is why folks turn to conservative models - short term swings and pucker factor as well as time constraints on the money . so yes short term volatility can be very important .

other wise there is little point to permanently hurting your long term performance unless you believe doomsday is coming. so all this mitigating is for these temporary short term drops . so don't say " why wold someone be concerned about the short term " that is exactly what they are concerned about as a conservative investor .
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Xan » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:57 am

There's an awful lot of daylight between a horizon of several decades and a horizon of a single day.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:10 am

The PP/GB should not be considered a "conservative" model, at least by the day to day timeframe. You've gone from a standard 25/25/25/25 PP to a GB, which will likely be more volatile in the first place.

Secondly, the assets held are purposely meant to be volatile. From Wikipedia on the PP:
-----------------------
The PP asset allocation involves four assets, held in roughly equal proportions. Each asset relates to a specific economic condition; when a condition predominates, its corresponding asset ought to rally due to macroeconomic forces.

25% stocks for prosperity
25% cash for recession
25% gold for inflation
25% long term bonds for deflation

Stocks, gold, and long term bonds are considered volatile assets. Their market price fluctuates wildly as economic conditions change.
----------------------
So if you got into the GB to reduce your day to day volatility, there are going to be many days it doesn't work out that way. But over the long term, it does seems to work.

And again, you mention the PP as a doomsday scenario portfolio (which can only mean your distaste of holding gold), and we are limiting ourselves. I 100% disagree. The PP protects against doomsday better than other, sure, but the most important thing is it would have helped me STICK with the system through times like 2001 and 2008 had I been doing it then, vs. bailing at the worst possible times like I did.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:05 pm

i didn't refer to the pp as a doomsday portfolio . i was referring to mitigating short term temporary dips having no logic for a long term investor with a long term perspective . heavy betting against each other is for mitigating things in the short term as long term these dips have no meaning .

as peter lynch said more money has been lost preparing for or anticipating the next correction or crash than has ever been lost by any long term investor .

which goes back to what i said which you are mis-construing . thinking because the gb is 40% equity it is on not only on par with wellesley short term volatility wise but thinking it is less because of the risk "pairing " would likely be a mistake by that person .. that is my entire point . do not confuse it in the short term for what you may think a portfolio with only 40% stocks would leave you up or down in the short term . you can get qa much wilder ride than you signed on for. if short term mitigating is your goal the pp is better at
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:35 pm

You're telling me I am not to infer you think the PP and its variants are doomsday portfolios by you stating it this way:

"other wise there is little point to permanently hurting your long term performance unless you believe doomsday is coming."

Nobody generally uses the term doomsday when regarding investing unless you are biased against holding gold. And if instead you are referring to a very conservative portfolio, i.e. bonds/CDs/cash as a doomsday portfolio, I would think those categories are potentially up for losses if a doomsday scenario includes problems with the government or banking sector in one form or another, debt, high interest rates, loss of confidence, inflation, hyperinflation, wars, etc.

I don't think anyone here is swayed by any short term PP volatility, other than bitching about it every now and then.

And I think/assume most here are more than happy giving up the potential increased returns of a 20-25% higher stock holding and instead having that portion in the safety (and likely lower return) of gold.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Dieter » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:33 pm

GB with 20% SCV is a volatile 40% stock allocation.
(Wellesley is 35% LCV)

20/20 LTT/STT is, what, >50% more duration exposure than Total Bond.
(While Wellesley tends to be longer duration, I think it's currently similar to Total Bond, mostly corporates)

Gold is....

But yes, not fun to watch move more than equity heavy portfolios.

I've always wanted my equity to be >= LTT + Gold to reduce (negative) tracking error in my GBish portfolio.

With the hope that when things go south, I go less south.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:05 pm

Dieter wrote:GB with 20% SCV is a volatile 40% stock allocation.
(Wellesley is 35% LCV)

20/20 LTT/STT is, what, >50% more duration exposure than Total Bond.
(While Wellesley tends to be longer duration, I think it's currently similar to Total Bond, mostly corporates)

Gold is....

But yes, not fun to watch move more than equity heavy portfolios.

I've always wanted my equity to be >= LTT + Gold to reduce (negative) tracking error in my GBish portfolio.

With the hope that when things go south, I go less south.
I reached that conclusion as well.
Equity >= LTT/ST+ Gold, currently 53,41 and 7 respectively.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by mukramesh » Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:24 pm

mathjak107 wrote:i didn't refer to the pp as a doomsday portfolio . i was referring to mitigating short term temporary dips having no logic for a long term investor with a long term perspective . heavy betting against each other is for mitigating things in the short term as long term these dips have no meaning .
According to Tyler's website, the longest drawdown was ~3 years. So people should not invest in the PP unless their time horizon is > 3 years. No point worrying too much about the daily movement of the different assets.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by sophie » Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:15 pm

This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about.

My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, between family and his business. Today, to my amazement, I got an email from him asking for advice about index funds. Here's an excerpt from it that deserves to be immortalized:
I bought my house on XXX stock I bought at $00.14 and sold at $3.75. I fear that move may plague me throughout my lifetime into thinking I can win the stock market bet. Right now, I am $(a large number)K up on several stocks, but also $(large number + 5)K down on some others. All this investing and trading and watching the stock market in order to lose some money in the end. Just silly I'm realizing. Not worth the effort.

Anyway, I'm thinking of keeping the money I have in the market, and everything moving forward quickly put into index funds so that I am not tempted to trade it. That way I can plan responsibly for my future but still have something to satisfy my risk taking appetite.
I'm debating whether to go whole hog and introduce him to the Permanent Portfolio, but I think I'll start slow with the simplest possible stock/bond mix first. He's never bought a bond or fund in his life!
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by dualstow » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:21 pm

I think you're doing the right thing. As much as I love the pp, telling him about that first might be like that story about the people who are afraid of melons. You know, the normal guy goes to the Land of Melons, where people are terrified of them and think they're monsters. Normal guy takes out a machete and cuts one in half. "See? Nothing to fear," he says. They freak out and kill him.

Another normal guy, but wiser, comes along and finds that these people fear melons. He says, "Yes, shh, we better tread carefully, and gradually, over time, teaches them that there's nothing to fear.

Anyway, hooray for your brother. I can picture you starting him off with a boglehead-type lazy portfolio. Eventually he might ask, "Is this what you do?"

For what it's worth, I have a sister who works at a brokerage firm and she's never bought bonds either. (Sunday edit: sister-in-law)
Last edited by dualstow on Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:28 pm

sophie wrote:This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about.

My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, between family and his business. Today, to my amazement, I got an email from him asking for advice about index funds. Here's an excerpt from it that deserves to be immortalized:
I bought my house on XXX stock I bought at $00.14 and sold at $3.75. I fear that move may plague me throughout my lifetime into thinking I can win the stock market bet. Right now, I am $(a large number)K up on several stocks, but also $(large number + 5)K down on some others. All this investing and trading and watching the stock market in order to lose some money in the end. Just silly I'm realizing. Not worth the effort.

Anyway, I'm thinking of keeping the money I have in the market, and everything moving forward quickly put into index funds so that I am not tempted to trade it. That way I can plan responsibly for my future but still have something to satisfy my risk taking appetite.
I'm debating whether to go whole hog and introduce him to the Permanent Portfolio, but I think I'll start slow with the simplest possible stock/bond mix first. He's never bought a bond or fund in his life!

I told my Friend Charles there are only three things that MIGHT sense in this funny world:
VWIAX
PP
Ladder of CD or Treasuries
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Jack Jones » Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:22 am

sophie wrote:
I bought my house on XXX stock I bought at $00.14 and sold at $3.75. I fear that move may plague me throughout my lifetime into thinking I can win the stock market bet. Right now, I am $(a large number)K up on several stocks, but also $(large number + 5)K down on some others. All this investing and trading and watching the stock market in order to lose some money in the end. Just silly I'm realizing. Not worth the effort.

Anyway, I'm thinking of keeping the money I have in the market, and everything moving forward quickly put into index funds so that I am not tempted to trade it. That way I can plan responsibly for my future but still have something to satisfy my risk taking appetite.
I'm debating whether to go whole hog and introduce him to the Permanent Portfolio, but I think I'll start slow with the simplest possible stock/bond mix first. He's never bought a bond or fund in his life!
At least introduce him to Harry's writing on investing. Given that he's already decided to split his investments into risk-taking and conservative buckets, the Permanent/Variable Portfolio concept will resonate with him.

Harry has some good writing on speculative investing in "Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans..." Page 276 "Spring Cleaning" seems relevant here:

"Try to begin the Variable Portfolio from scratch, with a sum of cash. Once you've actually dumped all the baggage you've acquired over the years -- the Edsel stock, the strategic metals, the Imperial Russian bonds, and the Vegematic -- you'll probably find that you're delighted to be rid of it all. With the cash in hand, you can buy for the Variable Portfolio whatever seems best now -- rather than living with what you did two or three or ten years ago."
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by sophie » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:09 am

Thanks Jack!

I pointed him to the Bogleheads website to start with. The Best Laid Plans book is great, but it's too long. And Fail-safe investing would introduce him to the PP. Maybe I can just send him that and tell him to read just the "golden rules" part. The radio show would be great too. Harry does such a beautiful job of explaining the "golden rules" concepts on that show.

Like, "why would someone who has a sure-fire way to beat the market write a newsletter, instead of using their system to beat the market and then buying an island in Tahiti?" [I made up that last part :-)]
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by eufo » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:23 am

sophie wrote:This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about.

My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, between family and his business. Today, to my amazement, I got an email from him asking for advice about index funds. Here's an excerpt from it that deserves to be immortalized:
I bought my house on XXX stock I bought at $00.14 and sold at $3.75. I fear that move may plague me throughout my lifetime into thinking I can win the stock market bet. Right now, I am $(a large number)K up on several stocks, but also $(large number + 5)K down on some others. All this investing and trading and watching the stock market in order to lose some money in the end. Just silly I'm realizing. Not worth the effort.

Anyway, I'm thinking of keeping the money I have in the market, and everything moving forward quickly put into index funds so that I am not tempted to trade it. That way I can plan responsibly for my future but still have something to satisfy my risk taking appetite.
I'm debating whether to go whole hog and introduce him to the Permanent Portfolio, but I think I'll start slow with the simplest possible stock/bond mix first. He's never bought a bond or fund in his life!
Early wins are very deceptive and can lead people into false beliefs. Many never figure it out, but at least your brother is smart enough to see it now. I work in the casino biz and we love it when a new player hits a big jackpot... because we know the hook has been set. They, more often than not, try to recapture that high. Buying a penny stock and having it skyrocket probably has the exact same feeling, with one exception... one might be inclined to think it's all skill... so it's a vindication of their brilliance as opposed to just "being lucky".

I helped my good friend a couple of years ago by telling him to fire his financial advisor (who was doing an immensely terrible job and charging him a fortune) and to google lazy portfolios. He picked a portfolio I don't particularly care for, but one he really likes. He continues to thank me to this day for that. I would start there with your brother. It's easy and fun to explore for someone new to passive investing. If he inquires further, take the next step with him.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by dualstow » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:36 am

He picked a portfolio I don't particularly care for
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by eufo » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:54 am

dualstow wrote:
He picked a portfolio I don't particularly care for
Was it Sheltered Sam?
No. Though I'm not fond of that either.

He never gave me the name of the allocation, but it went something like this:

30% Total Stock Market
20% Total Bond Market
20% Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS)
15% REIT
15% Emerging Markets

He then shifted to equal weights of each.

It's not a terrible portfolio, really. It's a million times better than the 50% Large Cap Blend, 50% High Yield Corporate Bonds his "advisor" had him in. I'd obviously prefer some Gold in there and I've never been a fan of Emerging Markets, so I'd dump those for sure.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by ochotona » Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:30 am

eufo wrote: He never gave me the name of the allocation, but it went something like this:

30% Total Stock Market
20% Total Bond Market
20% Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS)
15% REIT
15% Emerging Markets

He then shifted to equal weights of each.

It's not a terrible portfolio, really. It's a million times better than the 50% Large Cap Blend, 50% High Yield Corporate Bonds his "advisor" had him in. I'd obviously prefer some Gold in there and I've never been a fan of Emerging Markets, so I'd dump those for sure.
I think you'd be doing your friend a favor if you talked him into selling half of his EM allocation, and buying gold. It's an OK portfolio, if he's younger. If he's over 50, he's going to have trouble when the 60% stocks and REIT lose 1/2 or more of their value in the next bear market.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun Apr 09, 2017 10:54 am

eufo wrote:
sophie wrote:This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about.

My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, between family and his business. Today, to my amazement, I got an email from him asking for advice about index funds. Here's an excerpt from it that deserves to be immortalized:
I bought my house on XXX stock I bought at $00.14 and sold at $3.75. I fear that move may plague me throughout my lifetime into thinking I can win the stock market bet. Right now, I am $(a large number)K up on several stocks, but also $(large number + 5)K down on some others. All this investing and trading and watching the stock market in order to lose some money in the end. Just silly I'm realizing. Not worth the effort.

Anyway, I'm thinking of keeping the money I have in the market, and everything moving forward quickly put into index funds so that I am not tempted to trade it. That way I can plan responsibly for my future but still have something to satisfy my risk taking appetite.
I'm debating whether to go whole hog and introduce him to the Permanent Portfolio, but I think I'll start slow with the simplest possible stock/bond mix first. He's never bought a bond or fund in his life!
Early wins are very deceptive and can lead people into false beliefs. Many never figure it out, but at least your brother is smart enough to see it now. I work in the casino biz and we love it when a new player hits a big jackpot... because we know the hook has been set. They, more often than not, try to recapture that high. Buying a penny stock and having it skyrocket probably has the exact same feeling, with one exception... one might be inclined to think it's all skill... so it's a vindication of their brilliance as opposed to just "being lucky".

I helped my good friend a couple of years ago by telling him to fire his financial advisor (who was doing an immensely terrible job and charging him a fortune) and to google lazy portfolios. He picked a portfolio I don't particularly care for, but one he really likes. He continues to thank me to this day for that. I would start there with your brother. It's easy and fun to explore for someone new to passive investing. If he inquires further, take the next step with him.
I was very fortunate in that my first attempt to outsmart the market led to an almost instant margin call, which convinced me to avoid margin afterwards.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Dieter » Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:58 am

eufo wrote:
He never gave me the name of the allocation, but it went something like this:

30% Total Stock Market
20% Total Bond Market
20% Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS)
15% REIT
15% Emerging Markets

He then shifted to equal weights of each.

It's not a terrible portfolio, really. It's a million times better than the 50% Large Cap Blend, 50% High Yield Corporate Bonds his "advisor" had him in. I'd obviously prefer some Gold in there and I've never been a fan of Emerging Markets, so I'd dump those for sure.
Sounds like a 60/40 Swenson-ish.

http://www.npr.org/2015/10/17/436993646 ... portfolios
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by eufo » Sun Apr 09, 2017 1:11 pm

ochotona wrote: I think you'd be doing your friend a favor if you talked him into selling half of his EM allocation, and buying gold. It's an OK portfolio, if he's younger. If he's over 50, he's going to have trouble when the 60% stocks and REIT lose 1/2 or more of their value in the next bear market.
Indeed I would, but I never offer advice unless I'm asked. When he originally asked I wasn't comfortable with gold like I am now. I've mentioned that I hold gold, but unless he asks I won't interfere. Like I said, he's very happy with it.
Libertarian666 wrote: I was very fortunate in that my first attempt to outsmart the market led to an almost instant margin call, which convinced me to avoid margin afterwards.
I'm sure you didn't feel fortunate in that moment, but at least you learned early instead of late. Can you imagine amassing a fortune and then getting margin called out of it? A disaster sure to befall some unlucky fool.
Dieter wrote: Sounds like a 60/40 Swenson-ish.

http://www.npr.org/2015/10/17/436993646 ... portfolios
That is rather close. I know for sure there was no talk of Developed International, but other than that, extremely close. It still ends up being like a 60/40, though REITs can be a bit feisty when compared with normal equities.
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by PP67 » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:39 pm

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare. They might find out on their own that perhaps a little gold dust is just the secret ingredient they have been looking for.

https://portfoliocharts.com/
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:27 pm

eufo wrote:Indeed I would, but I never offer advice unless I'm asked.
Very wise!
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Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:43 pm

PP67 wrote:A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare. They might find out on their own that perhaps a little gold dust is just the secret ingredient they have been looking for.

https://portfoliocharts.com/
Try:

15% Total Stock Market
15% Mid cap Value
25% Small cap Value
20% Long term Treasuries
25% Gold

Modeljc Butterfly? 7.7% REAL RETURNS

That might be why NO BELIEVES IN THE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO?

PP RETURNS ARE SMALL AND BORING AND WE ALL HOPE FOR MORE
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