Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
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Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
This looks like a very problematic time to be heavily invested in equities. But the PP is doing just fine. I just hope that mathjak, Budd and others are sleeping well right now. This could be a very, very bad year for stocks!
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Jeff Gundlach now saying that this is a capital preservation environment, not a speculative one. Predicts $1400 gold. Didn't see his bond prediction but I would guess that it's bullish.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... pportunity
Here's a better link :
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gun ... -12-2016-1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... pportunity
Here's a better link :
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gun ... -12-2016-1
Last edited by Reub on Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Reub, sleeping just fine as long as the PP continues to weather the storm. I expect my 70/30 AA to decline along with equities and am prepared to re-balance accordingly. I would NEVER hold 70/30 in taxable as I am not prepared to watch the "money I cannot afford to lose" evaporate.Reub wrote: This looks like a very problematic time to be heavily invested in equities. But the PP is doing just fine. I just hope that mathjak, Budd and others are sleeping well right now. This could be a very, very bad year for stocks!
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I'm still working, about 2 or so years from retirement, and contributing to a 401k and most of the new money goes into stocks.Reub wrote: This looks like a very problematic time to be heavily invested in equities. But the PP is doing just fine. I just hope that mathjak, Budd and others are sleeping well right now. This could be a very, very bad year for stocks!
Au Contraire, I think this could be a good year for stocks. Buy low, sell high.
Last edited by Fred on Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I think it's going to end in tears.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Same story, different day. Buy stocks and shed gold and treasuries like the plague. Not sure what we are all rejoicing, the PP is not positive, but less negative that an equity rich portfolio.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
- Cortopassi
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Had to know once someone thanked God for the PP that the next day TLT and gold get killed! It is a ying yang lately that is going nowhere fast.
I'm starting to feel the great sub 1000 washout in gold is coming soon.
I'm starting to feel the great sub 1000 washout in gold is coming soon.
Last edited by Cortopassi on Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Test of the signature line
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
It's going to be a long year.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
HA HA I was the gold bear, but now I'm thinking if gold just goes sideways throughout much of 2016, by 2017 I'll just buy enough to make up 5% of my portfolio and be done with it. I need the portfolio insurance.Cortopassi wrote: Had to know once someone thanked God for the PP that the next day TLT and gold get killed! It is a ying yang lately that is going nowhere fast.
I'm starting to feel the great sub 1000 washout in gold is coming soon.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Are you being serious?MediumTex wrote: It's going to be a long year.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
If we are going to lament every time the PP has a bad day, sometimes several times a day, then yeah, it's going to be a long year.Reub wrote:Are you being serious?MediumTex wrote: It's going to be a long year.
The PP really ought to be about peace of mind. That's one of its biggest selling points, but people seem to fret about it just as much as other strategies with WAY more volatility. Maybe fretting about investments is just a habit some people have and it's hard to shake no matter how safe a strategy they are using.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Exactly, which is why we really need to characterize each portfolio by it's Dragon Ratio:MediumTex wrote:If we are going to lament every time the PP has a bad day, sometimes several times a day, then yeah, it's going to be a long year.Reub wrote:Are you being serious?MediumTex wrote: It's going to be a long year.
The PP really ought to be about peace of mind. That's one of its biggest selling points, but people seem to fret about it just as much as other strategies with WAY more volatility. Maybe fretting about investments is just a habit some people have and it's hard to shake no matter how safe a strategy they are using.
Fretting Quotient / Expected Return
For example, the S&P500 is expected to return around 9%, with daily fretting, or 365/9 = 40.6 Dragons
The PP, on the other hand, is expected to return around 8%, with daily fretting, or 365/8 = 45.6 Dragons
Clearly, the S&P500 gives you more Dragons (more Dragons is better).
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I just don't watch the market. Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.
I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss. This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.
I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss. This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.
“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.� ~Talmud
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
+1 on this... i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP, and trade stocks and have good returns...Bean wrote: I just don't watch the market. Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.
I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss. This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.
if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.
The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it. although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)
People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...
in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold that's how the PP makes a good return..
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
You're right. 2016 is a Leap Year!MediumTex wrote: It's going to be a long year.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
66/33?MangoMan wrote:Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thankssk55 wrote:+1 on this... i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP, and trade stocks and have good returns...Bean wrote: I just don't watch the market. Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.
I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss. This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.
if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.
The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it. although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)
People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...
in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold that's how the PP makes a good return..
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.
VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)
PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.
VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)
PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
So in other words, you say the PP is a wonderful concept that prevents panic, but you won't follow it.sk55 wrote: The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it. although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Why not wait for some sort of stability before rebalancing back into equities? Some of my sources are saying that stocks still look bearish.buddtholomew wrote: Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.
VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)
PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
20 years from now it won't matter much.Reub wrote:Why not wait for some sort of stability before rebalancing back into equities? Some of my sources are saying that stocks still look bearish.buddtholomew wrote: Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.
VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)
PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.
3.5% is the 1st of several re-balancing moves when/if necessary.
50% decline in new money added is less than 2% loss of entire portfolio. Not significant.
Know I will never catch the bottom.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
MangoMan wrote:Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thankssk55 wrote:+1 on this... i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP, and trade stocks and have good returns...Bean wrote: I just don't watch the market. Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.
I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss. This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.
if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.
The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it. although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)
People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...
in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold that's how the PP makes a good return..
50/50 SPY/TLT
i use ETFs sometimes i'll turn it into a covered call... if its down to generate income..
and i keep a decent amount cash on the side for dips...
Last edited by sk55 on Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
So in other words, a 50-50 Boglehead allocation.sk55 wrote:MangoMan wrote:Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thankssk55 wrote: +1 on this... i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP, and trade stocks and have good returns...
if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.
The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it. although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)
People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...
in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold that's how the PP makes a good return..
50/50 SPY/TLT
i use ETFs sometimes i'll turn it into a covered call... if its down to generate income..
and i keep a decent amount cash on the side for dips...
Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it has nothing to do with the PP.
- lordmetroid
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Why?lordmetroid wrote: I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.
If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
- lordmetroid
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I already sold my stocks at the top, in due time I will of course return to stocks when the trend has reversed but meanwhile I will either have my capital in cash or I should take a chance with some fixed income.MediumTex wrote:Why?lordmetroid wrote: I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.
If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.