PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

[MediumTex]

i am not picking on them or the pp but in general things only work until they don't whether it is moving averages , technicals or the best trading system in the world .

the pp had a great run because of 40 years of falling interest rates except for a few bumps and a strong stock market .

well perhaps it too met its waterloo . it just took a lot longer .

The PP's best years in nominal terms have happened when interest rates were rising.

"It only works when interest rates are falling" is not a valid criticism of the PP.

[MediumTex]

Theories are irrelevant. It's the results that matter.
...
This is a breakdown in the PP. Global conditions overruling the US economic climate.

Just another irrelevant theory.

just like you...irrelevant.

Why do that? 

Please stop.

[mathjak107]

i am not picking on them or the pp but in general things only work until they don't whether it is moving averages , technicals or the best trading system in the world .

the pp had a great run because of 40 years of falling interest rates except for a few bumps and a strong stock market .

well perhaps it too met its waterloo . it just took a lot longer .

The PP's best years in nominal terms have happened when interest rates were rising.

"It only works when interest rates are falling" is not a valid criticism of the PP.

they did not rise very long , just look at that slope  . that is bliss for long term treasury's over the long haul .

[iwealth]

This is why I complain about absent management here at the forum. After Craig and MT spent so much time and energy promoting the PP and setting up a website for it they now disappear for months at a time as if they never had such a great effect on getting us to join in. When the PP has underperformed the general stock market by over a hundred percent is when we need to hear from them. Not when things are going well.  I'm not talking about a full time commitment here, just an occasional post or two on a regular basis. I'd actually like to know why they stopped doing that.  Have they themselves become demoralized with the PP?

Neither Craig or MT have any sort of market prescience. I think that's why they use this portfolio to begin with.

Historical data should allay fears. Look at Tyler's charts. Check out Pet Hog's unbelievably granular depiction of PP performance using every single month as a starting date back to 1972. It plain as day shows that the PP has had a negative real return for up to NINE years from inception depending on what you got started and then rebalanced along the way.

The moral of the story is that the PP isn't doing anything remotely out of the norm. It's lagging stocks in a bull market. And the Fed is about to raise rates in a dis-inflationary or possibly even deflationary, slow-growth environment = bad for everybody.

[buddtholomew]

Just another irrelevant theory.

just like you...irrelevant.

Why do that? 

Please stop.

That's right...pick on the naysayers.
I'm with Reub on this one. You come back after the shit hits the fan and say nothing to see here, the PP is doing its thing. It's not! Open your eyes.

[iwealth]

Don't forget to add the 20% decline in gold to your calculations.

OK I ran this through peaktotrough.com.

Starting in May 2011-today (not sure exactly when you started, I just chose a start point in 2011):

100% stocks: 50% return
60/40: 35% total return
50/40/10: 30% total return
PP: 15% return

It's just a 5% drag.

[mathjak107]

forget the charts , it all boils down to this :
the question you have to ask yourself is do you believe conditions are such that you want to stick with it or does your gut tell you there may be better options .

that is all that matters . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may mean nothing today with any asset class things are so different than the past including global interaction on the various pieces of the pp .

[MediumTex]

This is why I complain about absent management here at the forum. After Craig and MT spent so much time and energy promoting the PP and setting up a website for it they now disappear for months at a time as if they never had such a great effect on getting us to join in. When the PP has underperformed the general stock market by over a hundred percent is when we need to hear from them. Not when things are going well.  I'm not talking about a full time commitment here, just an occasional post or two on a regular basis. I'd actually like to know why they stopped doing that.  Have they themselves become demoralized with the PP?

The frequency of our posts really shouldn't have any bearing on a person's decision to use or continue using the PP.

If I have something to say, I post.  If I don't have anything to say, I don't post.

I don't want to come across as flip to any of our members here, but I'm not the least bit demoralized in any way right now.  From my perspective, the PP is working exactly to spec.  Even though it's going through a period of low returns right now, it's still not losing anyone any money and its giving us all exposure to much higher potential returns than its volatility would suggest.

But if a person finds PP conditions too stressful, then they should consider getting off the ride and trying something else.  Life is too short to worry about your investments constantly.  I truly believe, however, that if an investor would just leave his PP alone after setting it up, it has a higher potential than most allocations to actually prevent investment worry, but you can't be looking at it several times a day every single day and expect anything but a frazzled mind.

[KevinW]

Why do that? 

Please stop.

+1

[Jack Jones]

This is why I complain about absent management here at the forum. After Craig and MT spent so much time and energy promoting the PP and setting up a website for it they now disappear for months at a time as if they never had such a great effect on getting us to join in. When the PP has underperformed the general stock market by over a hundred percent is when we need to hear from them. Not when things are going well.  I'm not talking about a full time commitment here, just an occasional post or two on a regular basis. I'd actually like to know why they stopped doing that.  Have they themselves become demoralized with the PP?

Perhaps you'd feel better if you realized that they don't owe you anything. Their book didn't come with a lifetime support contract.

[buddtholomew]

Why do that? 

Please stop.

+1

Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective?

[MediumTex]

i am not picking on them or the pp but in general things only work until they don't whether it is moving averages , technicals or the best trading system in the world .

the pp had a great run because of 40 years of falling interest rates except for a few bumps and a strong stock market .

well perhaps it too met its waterloo . it just took a lot longer .

The PP's best years in nominal terms have happened when interest rates were rising.

"It only works when interest rates are falling" is not a valid criticism of the PP.

they did not rise very long , just look at that slope  . that is bliss for long term treasury's over the long haul .

If you take the chart back to 1972, you will see that rates rose for a decade before they peaked in the early 1980s.

It was during that decade that the PP delivered its highest returns in both real and nominal terms.

[MediumTex]

forget the charts , it all boils down to this :
the question you have to ask yourself is do you believe conditions are such that you want to stick with it or does your gut tell you there may be better options .

that is all that matters . driving and looking in the rear view mirror may mean nothing today with any asset class things are so different than the past including global interaction on the various pieces of the pp .

I agree with this statement, except the part about things being so different now.

To me, current conditions are exactly the same as we have been dealing with since 2008.  Nothing new here at all.

The PP showed it could weather this storm in 2008, and then it showed that it could thrive in a deflationary environment after that. 

[KevinW]

Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective?

Before saying something, please consider asking yourself: will this add productively to the discussion? If not, it would be a kindness to not say that thing.

We have a nice community here. A little common courtesy would go a long way.

[buddtholomew]

Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective?

Before saying something, please consider asking yourself: will this add productively to the discussion? If not, it would be a kindness to not say that thing.

We have a nice community here. A little common courtesy would go a long way.

So did you read it? You get what you give...

[dualstow]

Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective?

It looks like I might be the 'he' in question -- hard to untangle these quote nests sometimes -- so just to clear the air:

- I really do mean that for the time being, the theory that global conditions will overwhelm the pp are just that, a theory. I don't understand why your interpretation of current economic events have any more weight than mortalpawn's or anyone else's. ?
- If I offended you by saying that I like to buy in "when Budd is running in the streets", I didn't mean to. It's just a bad pun, but it's also the truth. I like to put money into the pp when it's low and unpopular. Isn't that what we're supposed to do, after all? We do it with the four assets (rebalancing bands), so why not w/ the pp itself?

[buddtholomew]

Why don't you read what he wrote or are you just being selective?

It looks like I might be the 'he' in question -- hard to untangle these quote nests sometimes -- so just to clear the air:

- I really do mean that for the time being, the theory that global conditions will overwhelm the pp are just that, a theory. I don't understand why your interpretation of current economic events have any more weight than mortalpawn's or anyone else's. ?
- If I offended you by saying that I like to buy in "when Budd is running in the streets", I didn't mean to. It's just a bad pun, but it's also the truth. I like to put money into the pp when it's low and unpopular. Isn't that what we're supposed to do, after all? We do it with the four assets (rebalancing bands), so why not w/ the pp itself?

Yes, you're right and I apologize.
I've been buying lagging assets as well after I get tired from running in the streets.

[AdamA]

Don't waste your breath Math.
The diehards here will tell you everything is great.

But isn't this the right attitude?  You sort of have to be a "diehard" of whatever investment strategy you choose. 

Whether it's 100% stocks,  50/50 BH, the PP or any other strategy, the argument could be made that more damage is done by running from strategy to strategy every time you get scared than from picking one and sticking it to it, even if it's not the optimal portfolio. 

[dualstow]

No harm done. And we've both got roofs over our heads and food in the fridge. That means we're doing way better than most of the world's population.

[MediumTex]

No harm done. And we've both got roofs over our heads and food in the fridge. That means we're doing way better than most of the world's population.

That's not enough.

I want to see you two share a grudging fist bump.

[MediumTex]

Don't waste your breath Math.
The diehards here will tell you everything is great.

But isn't this the right attitude?  You sort of have to be a "diehard" of whatever investment strategy you choose. 

Whether it's 100% stocks,  50/50 BH, the PP or any other strategy, the argument could be made that more damage is done by running from strategy to strategy every time you get scared than from picking one and sticking it to it, even if it's not the optimal portfolio.

Absolutely.

One of the risks I am willing to take with the PP is that I have hitched my wagon to a tortoise.

I'm okay with the notion that I am going to be passed regularly by other wagons being pulled by other means.

The worst investment decisions I have ever made have not involved choosing the wrong portfolio, it has been switching portfolios at the wrong time.

[AdamA]

When the PP has underperformed the general stock market by over a hundred percent is when we need to hear from them. Not when things are going well.  I'm not talking about a full time commitment here, just an occasional post or two on a regular basis. I'd actually like to know why they stopped doing that.  Have they themselves become demoralized with the PP?

What is it you'd want to hear from them?

[dualstow]

I want to see you two share a grudging fist bump.

Not fair. Have you seen the size of his arms? 

[MediumTex]

When the PP has underperformed the general stock market by over a hundred percent is when we need to hear from them. Not when things are going well.  I'm not talking about a full time commitment here, just an occasional post or two on a regular basis. I'd actually like to know why they stopped doing that.  Have they themselves become demoralized with the PP?

What is it you'd want to hear from them?

Yeah.

I have recently been posting about topics ranging from interest rate trends, reasons to own gold, how the PP will do in a sustained deflationary environment, whether God exists, and a geriatric strip club/bingo parlor with a featured dancer who shoots the next bingo ball from her special purpose (they are actually making a documentary about this amazing place called "Dancing at the Blue Hair-guana").

[mathjak107]

i believe a local nyc club here got closed down because a dancer shot one in someones pizza .

not that i think thats a problem    lol