Stock scream room

[stuper1]

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.

Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.

[buddtholomew]

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...

I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.

[dualstow]

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..

yes please. 

[Xan]

...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.

What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?

[ochotona]

Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.

Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.

[ochotona]

I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.

The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.

[buddtholomew]

...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.

What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?

I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.

[Reub]

I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/

Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?

[ochotona]

Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today

[Pointedstick]

Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today

[dualstow]

Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!

(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)

[ochotona]

Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

[buddtholomew]

Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

"Anything can happen and nothing has to happen." Predicting the future is a fools errand. The markets were closed and the employment figures were disastrous. Even with this information in-hand who could have foreseen treasuries falling today?
Let's leave forecasting to the geologists. There's no room for forecasting in investing.

[Libertarian666]

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

[ochotona]

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

[Jack Jones]

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

[ochotona]

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear

[Jack Jones]

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear

[dragoncar]

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

[dualstow]

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

[MediumTex]

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.

[Libertarian666]

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

Wow, you really are ready for everything! But why such a high gold allocation? Are you some kind of doomer? 

[dragoncar]

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.

Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

[iwealth]

Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

Growth investing isn't a highly regarded imvestment strategy?

According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?

[dualstow]

In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

As has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.