No where to hide
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- mathjak107
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Re: No where to hide
it was less than the pp , i don't remember the exact number at the low as it was all over the place . what did the pp in was not only the big drop in stocks but the wicked falls in long term bonds and the drop in gold.
i only had 50% in equities and the short term bond funds hardly moved downward . in all fairness though there was a bit of arbitrage going on since i was selling gld and tlt before they plunged that bad and bought assets like veu and vanguard extended index which initially fell more so i got to buy them on sale .
the only big dip i took was the 350 point one which was about 13 or 14k but i can't really say what low to low worked out to . but i did still have my older funds which i held from the insight newsletter and of course they fell too but i can't really remember how much they were down so i was only tracking the etf's i just bought since they changed price all day. the day of the big did i don't think i even bothered to glance at the total number .
but the important thing is i can say as of today i am only .40% away from even while the pp still shows down a lot
i only had 50% in equities and the short term bond funds hardly moved downward . in all fairness though there was a bit of arbitrage going on since i was selling gld and tlt before they plunged that bad and bought assets like veu and vanguard extended index which initially fell more so i got to buy them on sale .
the only big dip i took was the 350 point one which was about 13 or 14k but i can't really say what low to low worked out to . but i did still have my older funds which i held from the insight newsletter and of course they fell too but i can't really remember how much they were down so i was only tracking the etf's i just bought since they changed price all day. the day of the big did i don't think i even bothered to glance at the total number .
but the important thing is i can say as of today i am only .40% away from even while the pp still shows down a lot
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- buddtholomew
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Re: No where to hide
PP is down .41% for the week (28s/22g/23b/27c)mathjak107 wrote: it was less than the pp , i don't remember the exact number at the low as it was all over the place . what did the pp in was not only the big drop in stocks but the wicked falls in long term bonds and the drop in gold.
i only had 50% in equities and the short term bond funds hardly moved downward . in all fairness though their was a bit of arbitrage going on since i was selling gld and tlt before they plunged that bad and bought assets like veu and vanguard extended index which initially fell more so i got to buy them on sale .
the only big dip i took was the 350 point one which was about 13 or 14k but i can't really say what low to low worked out to .
i can say as of today i am only .40% away from even while the pp still shows down a lot
70/30 allocation was down 1.18% at the low of the week on 7/8
70/30 after purchasing international stocks on 7/8 is up .22%
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
- mathjak107
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Re: No where to hide
equty's recovered nicely . those long term bonds were really hammered this week and didn't recover . gold i think was down too and stayed down.
lets see what monday morning brings .
i just got the news letter update .
the growth and income model was down .30% on the week and up 2.1% ytd
the bond heavy income and capital preservation model was down .20% and up 1.1% ytd.
the growth model was down .30% too but up 4.70% ytd
lets see what monday morning brings .
i just got the news letter update .
the growth and income model was down .30% on the week and up 2.1% ytd
the bond heavy income and capital preservation model was down .20% and up 1.1% ytd.
the growth model was down .30% too but up 4.70% ytd
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Cortopassi
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Re: No where to hide
This seemed the appropriately titled topic to restart today...
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- Cortopassi
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Re: No where to hide
For posterity:
At the same moment gold, up $5.90 and TLT up 1.72%
At the same moment gold, up $5.90 and TLT up 1.72%
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- Pointedstick
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Re: No where to hide
As of right now, the PP sure seems like a good place to hide.
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- buddtholomew
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Re: No where to hide
Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything.Pointedstick wrote: As of right now, the PP sure seems like a good place to hide.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Re: No where to hide
all that money from stock sells has to go somewhere eventually. Give it a little while, like 2008.
Re: No where to hide
I wouldn't say they haven't done anything. In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share. They aren't skyrocketing immediately (that takes time for the market to decide to fiercely react or not), but they're going up and not losing - so it's making some movement to counteract and minimize losses, which is what we want.buddtholomew wrote:Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything.Pointedstick wrote: As of right now, the PP sure seems like a good place to hide.
- buddtholomew
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Re: No where to hide
It's so minimal you might as be fully invested in equities if this is the way gold (down) and treasuries (slightly positive) respond when the DOW falls 1000 points in a day...Tom wrote:I wouldn't say they haven't done anything. In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share. They aren't skyrocketing immediately (that takes time for the market to decide to fiercely react or not), but they're going up and not losing - so it's making some movement to counteract and minimize losses, which is what we want.buddtholomew wrote:Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything.Pointedstick wrote: As of right now, the PP sure seems like a good place to hide.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
- Pointedstick
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Re: No where to hide
You're welcome to become "fully invested in equities" if it would make you feel better. Today would certainly be a good day to start!
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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- buddtholomew
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Re: No where to hide
Better than losing on the way up AND on the way down, no? It's not like the PP is offsetting losses...you just have less in equities.Pointedstick wrote: You're welcome to become "fully invested in equities" if it would make you feel better. Today would certainly be a good day to start!
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: No where to hide
Yes, because we all know the volatility of 100% equities has exactly been the same as the PP...right?buddtholomew wrote:It's so minimal you might as be fully invested in equities if this is the way gold (down) and treasuries (slightly positive) respond when the DOW falls 1000 points in a day...Tom wrote:I wouldn't say they haven't done anything. In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share. They aren't skyrocketing immediately (that takes time for the market to decide to fiercely react or not), but they're going up and not losing - so it's making some movement to counteract and minimize losses, which is what we want.buddtholomew wrote: Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything.
You get 3 heartattacks when your portfolio is down 0.02%, and now you want to switch to 100% equities?
I'm really thinking this guy is a troll, cannot be serious.
- buddtholomew
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Re: No where to hide
Maybe the PP is showing you something it's not showing me.
The only difference between a stock heavy allocation and the PP during this downturn is the percent allocated to equities.
Gold is DOWN
LTT's up .26%
DOW down 500
The only difference between a stock heavy allocation and the PP during this downturn is the percent allocated to equities.
Gold is DOWN
LTT's up .26%
DOW down 500
Last edited by buddtholomew on Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Pointedstick
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Re: No where to hide
Budd's most immediate problem is that he's invested in a portfolio that he doesn't trust. As a result, whenever it fails to deliver the promised goods even over an unreasonably short period of time (i.e. the day-to-day noise), he sees this as evidence that the portfolio is broken and its promoters are brainwashed fools affected by groupthink.
Budd's deeper problem is that he wants the upside potential of equities without their downside risk. He believed that the PP offered this, but was mistaken, and now, having realized his mistake, he subscribes to the sunk-cost fallacy and is so loss-averse that he doesn't want to exit the PP even though he now realizes it doesn't do what he says it does.
Budd's deeper problem is that he wants the upside potential of equities without their downside risk. He believed that the PP offered this, but was mistaken, and now, having realized his mistake, he subscribes to the sunk-cost fallacy and is so loss-averse that he doesn't want to exit the PP even though he now realizes it doesn't do what he says it does.
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Re: No where to hide
Depends on how heavy the stock heavy allocation is. The PP is down 1.66% YTD where as stocks are down 6.56% YTD. Also to consider is the month to month psychology of it. This month PP is up .75%, stocks have dropped 8.9% - a lot of that in just the last few days. You can't discount the psychological factor of watching 8.9% of what you own going away in a few days (I know it's less in allocated portfolio that's heavier on stocks).buddtholomew wrote: The only difference between a stock heavy allocation and the PP during this downturn is the percent allocated to equities.
Gold is DOWN
LTT's up .26%
DOW down 500
Last edited by Tom on Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
- dualstow
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Re: No where to hide
The Dow was down as much as 1,000 points for a while this morning.
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Re: No where to hide
Didn't see this comment and said this in my last post, but to your point of it being minimal - if you were 100% in equities you'd be down 6.56% as opposed to 1.66% in a 4x25 HBPP. Perhaps you consider that minimal to relative to the potential gains. Most here wouldn't and is why we do what we do. We'll accept less return for less volatility and less risk.buddtholomew wrote:It's so minimal you might as be fully invested in equities if this is the way gold (down) and treasuries (slightly positive) respond when the DOW falls 1000 points in a day...Tom wrote:I wouldn't say they haven't done anything. In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share. They aren't skyrocketing immediately (that takes time for the market to decide to fiercely react or not), but they're going up and not losing - so it's making some movement to counteract and minimize losses, which is what we want.buddtholomew wrote: Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything.
Re: No where to hide
By far the most volatile market day I've ever witnessed.
Some examples of prints we saw this morning. It'd have been tough if not impossible to catch these, but they were definitely buyable on the way up:
SPY ETF: $182.40
VTI ETF: $93.00
QQQ ETF: $84.74
Apple: $92.00
Netflix: $85.50
Gilead: $86.00
McDonalds: $87.50
Verizon: $38.06 (!)
Pepsi: $76.48
General Electric: $19.47
It was common to see buyable 15-20% drops in some very blue chip names. Last time it happened was the 2010 flash crash. But that was significantly different in that it was driven by a fat finger mistake further compounded by algorithmic selling. This time looked to be a total liquidity crunch...probably massive selling by funds compounded by margin calls compounded by stop losses, etc., etc.
Just wow.
Some examples of prints we saw this morning. It'd have been tough if not impossible to catch these, but they were definitely buyable on the way up:
SPY ETF: $182.40
VTI ETF: $93.00
QQQ ETF: $84.74
Apple: $92.00
Netflix: $85.50
Gilead: $86.00
McDonalds: $87.50
Verizon: $38.06 (!)
Pepsi: $76.48
General Electric: $19.47
It was common to see buyable 15-20% drops in some very blue chip names. Last time it happened was the 2010 flash crash. But that was significantly different in that it was driven by a fat finger mistake further compounded by algorithmic selling. This time looked to be a total liquidity crunch...probably massive selling by funds compounded by margin calls compounded by stop losses, etc., etc.
Just wow.
- mathjak107
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Re: No where to hide
amazingly market down 163 as of now . phew! what a swing .
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Re: No where to hide
That's the PPT, the reason for the drop is still very much there.mathjak107 wrote: amazingly market down 163 as of now . phew! what a swing .
- Cortopassi
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Re: No where to hide
Somebody, somewhere, sold when the market was being drawn down 1000, 900, 800, 400 points because of fear.
PP is doing the job of minimizing this.
And as dutch says, not like it's all hunky dory all of a sudden, we had a 6% or 7% drop, recovered and hey, the correction is over. This seems to be the start of an even more very volatile period.
PP is doing the job of minimizing this.
And as dutch says, not like it's all hunky dory all of a sudden, we had a 6% or 7% drop, recovered and hey, the correction is over. This seems to be the start of an even more very volatile period.
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Re: No where to hide
I feel sorry for people who got hammered by stop losses this morning. Trying to get in and out of a volatile market, even semi-passively, just doesn't always work out the way you planned.Cortopassi wrote: Somebody, somewhere, sold when the market was being drawn down 1000, 900, 800, 400 points because of fear.
- dualstow
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Re: No where to hide
There's a recent tweet from Garry Shandling that readsCortopassi wrote: Somebody, somewhere, sold when the market was being drawn down 1000, 900, 800, 400 points because of fear.
please buy my stock tomorrow
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Re: No where to hide
Over any arbitrary period of time? Of course I would disagree with that, only because it's clearly not true. I would not actually dispute such a claim, because it's so obviously and easily verifiably not true that it's not worth my time to actively dispute it.buddtholomew wrote: Is anyone disputing the fact that a US-centric equity allocation outperformed (past tense) the PP over an arbitrary period of time?