Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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stuper1
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..
yes please.  :)
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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:50 pm

buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm

stuper1 wrote: Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.
The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:36 am

Xan wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:03 pm

jabba wrote: I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?
Last edited by Reub on Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:55 pm

Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:41 pm

ochotona wrote: Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:20 am

Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!

(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)
Last edited by dualstow on Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:45 am

Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  ::) The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:00 pm

ochotona wrote: Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  ::) The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

Image
"Anything can happen and nothing has to happen." Predicting the future is a fools errand. The markets were closed and the employment figures were disastrous. Even with this information in-hand who could have foreseen treasuries falling today?
Let's leave forecasting to the geologists. There's no room for forecasting in investing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:00 pm

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:16 pm

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:21 pm

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:27 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?
Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Jack Jones wrote:
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?
Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:58 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:05 pm

dragoncar wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by MediumTex » Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:29 pm

dualstow wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.
I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:15 pm

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.
Wow, you really are ready for everything! But why such a high gold allocation? Are you some kind of doomer?  :P
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:18 am

MediumTex wrote:
dualstow wrote:
dragoncar wrote: Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.
I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by iwealth » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:06 am

dragoncar wrote:
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy
Growth investing isn't a highly regarded imvestment strategy?

According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 03, 2015 12:22 pm

dragoncar wrote: In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy
Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
As has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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