Should I invest more aggressively?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Kshartle
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Re: Should I invest more aggressively?

Post by Kshartle »

LazyInvestor wrote: Thanks all for very useful insights.

Kshartle, why GLD/VTI and not GLD/VT or other total world market ETF? So, for a long term permanent "variable" portfolio that you don't care that much if it goes up or down, you'd rather got with GLD/VTI 50/50 compared to some other aggressive bogleheads portfolio or even regular PP?
ohhh sure I think VT is superior to VTI. In fact I think VEU is superior in the long-run because I'm bearish on the US economy compared to the rest of the world combined.

I was just trying to suggest something that would be more palatable to people already used to these funds in the PP. Some people perceive US stocks as less risky somehow which I dissagree with but hey, whatever.
Since rates are so low your upside on the bond side is extremely limited compared to stocks and gold. You need higher rates to actually have a chance at a good return on those. Of course that means the prices on LTBs will have to fall a lot, more than offsetting the interest.

If rates were double digits and the US was running a surplus then I would say VTI/TLT would be awesome instead. If that situation ever occurs I will buy TLT, with 1/3 to 1/2 my money probably.
Last edited by Kshartle on Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
LazyInvestor
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Re: Should I invest more aggressively?

Post by LazyInvestor »

Thanks, in terms of PP theory (inflation, prosperity, recession, etc. economic states and respective portfolio components), how would you explain why GLD/VT (i.e., inflation/prosperity) is supposed to be sufficient long term? Can recessions and not having cash reserves be ignored long term? Maybe you can somehow reason that GLD/VT is even more simplified PP for those who can afford larger dds?

Your 1/3 gold 1/3 stocks 1/3 global real estate portfolio sounds like that Talmud portfolio (PP of the times with no fiat money). Maybe it's appropriate even in the times of fiat money?

What ETFs do you use for global real estate? Is it just rentals or you cover everything?
Libertarian666
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Re: Should I invest more aggressively?

Post by Libertarian666 »

To get back to the original question, if you have more money than you need for retirement, I would diversify internationally, i.e., by establishing residence in another country. That is the best diversification against "black swans" like tyrannical government in the US.

(Note that I don't think that is really a black swan, but a fairly likely prospect...)
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