Medium Tex,
In the past, I have mentioned Chinese ascent and you seem to be less sanguine. One of the arguments that you have brought up is that the movement of people into the middle class will create political stress in the country. While I do agree that there will be political unrest in China going forward, it seems that this problem is being overestimated from an historical perspective.
Listening to Jim Rogers again, he states emphatically that during America's ascent in the 19th century we had 15 Depressions...not just recessions, multiple large wars, a massive civil war, the end of slavery and democratic rights growing expanding from white men to others.
So when you make the argument that China faces large problems, do you think that this changes the overall story of Chinese ascent on the world stage...thus making it a lucrative long term holding?
China
Moderator: Global Moderator
China
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: China
What else is there to say except that a repressive communist regime simply cannot be the basis for a durable capitalist economy.
Mao Zedong was no Thomas Jefferson.
When you think China, don't think United States circa 1850, think USSR circa 1950.
Mao Zedong was no Thomas Jefferson.
When you think China, don't think United States circa 1850, think USSR circa 1950.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
Except that the Chinese are capitalists in every sense of the word.
Is capitalism exclusive only to democratic systems of government? I think the Chinese have proven that it really isn't.
Certainly as the Chinese middle class gain more affluence, they will demand more participation in the political process, but these changes will occur gradually.
In the West, we endured similar tension as different groups (blacks and other minorities, women) began to claim their rights in the system.
I don't see why such a gradual shift to more participation of the people in the political process would be anything but positive for China.
Of course they do face challenges, like any country. But so far, from the Chinese I have met and from what I have read they seem to understand the basics of hard work and investment better than we do in the west.
Is capitalism exclusive only to democratic systems of government? I think the Chinese have proven that it really isn't.
Certainly as the Chinese middle class gain more affluence, they will demand more participation in the political process, but these changes will occur gradually.
In the West, we endured similar tension as different groups (blacks and other minorities, women) began to claim their rights in the system.
I don't see why such a gradual shift to more participation of the people in the political process would be anything but positive for China.
Of course they do face challenges, like any country. But so far, from the Chinese I have met and from what I have read they seem to understand the basics of hard work and investment better than we do in the west.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: China
What does Austrian economics tell us about state-directed allocations of capital? It always results in misallocations.
I have no doubt that the Chinese people are hardworking and want a better life. What I wonder about is whether the Chinese leadership is up to the task of allowing a closed society to gradually open up. In the 1980s there was a lot of optimism that Gorbachev could pull this off in the USSR, but, alas, he failed, as did his country.
And let's not forget that all we know about Chinese economic growth is what the communist bureaucrats tell us, and they wouldn't lie, would they? Have you seen the near perfect symmetry of Chinese output numbers? Have you seen the way Chinese bureaucrats are treated when they report embarrassing news?
And don't forget the bumpiest demographic graph in the history of the world that we will see in China as the one child policy generation moves through life.
Time will tell, of course, but China looks to me like several accidents waiting to happen. Every experiment like it in history thus far has failed.
The basic problem is that once you take the boot off of peoples' throats, they very often are much harder to control and you frequently find all sorts of fissures in society that were not visible when the state had a Tienanmen Square-stye grip on power (look at eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union for a recent example).
I have no doubt that the Chinese people are hardworking and want a better life. What I wonder about is whether the Chinese leadership is up to the task of allowing a closed society to gradually open up. In the 1980s there was a lot of optimism that Gorbachev could pull this off in the USSR, but, alas, he failed, as did his country.
And let's not forget that all we know about Chinese economic growth is what the communist bureaucrats tell us, and they wouldn't lie, would they? Have you seen the near perfect symmetry of Chinese output numbers? Have you seen the way Chinese bureaucrats are treated when they report embarrassing news?
And don't forget the bumpiest demographic graph in the history of the world that we will see in China as the one child policy generation moves through life.
Time will tell, of course, but China looks to me like several accidents waiting to happen. Every experiment like it in history thus far has failed.
The basic problem is that once you take the boot off of peoples' throats, they very often are much harder to control and you frequently find all sorts of fissures in society that were not visible when the state had a Tienanmen Square-stye grip on power (look at eastern Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union for a recent example).
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
I have never been to China, nor studied its culture in depth. But, Jim Rogers (I know that name is poison to some here) has basically uprooted his family to move them to the east. He has ridden up and down that country on his motorcycle, and probably has done more footwork than most other talking heads. Granted, this doesn't make his conclusions correct (and he does recognize that there are issues) nevertheless, he is pretty bullish on China and Asia in general, over the long term.
Now, I don't mean to suggest that this makes Chinese stocks a great investment. I'm sure they know how to cook the books with the best of them. However, I think it indicates a slight chink in the PP US stock centric portfolio. Looking past China into international markets and multinational companies, it is harder to distinguish what an "American Company" is anymore. For example, an all-American guy might go down and pick up a 6 pack of Bud thinking he is drinking an American beer, only to have his money flow into the Belgian/Brazilian In-Bev company.
This sale of American brands and companies into the global marketplace means that many of the products that we buy during boom economic times, are actually manufactured by companies that aren't listed in the S&P 500.
Don't you think that this justifies looking at a stronger global exposure in the PP?
Now, I don't mean to suggest that this makes Chinese stocks a great investment. I'm sure they know how to cook the books with the best of them. However, I think it indicates a slight chink in the PP US stock centric portfolio. Looking past China into international markets and multinational companies, it is harder to distinguish what an "American Company" is anymore. For example, an all-American guy might go down and pick up a 6 pack of Bud thinking he is drinking an American beer, only to have his money flow into the Belgian/Brazilian In-Bev company.
This sale of American brands and companies into the global marketplace means that many of the products that we buy during boom economic times, are actually manufactured by companies that aren't listed in the S&P 500.
Don't you think that this justifies looking at a stronger global exposure in the PP?
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
Re: China
Americans often suggest that free markets (i.e. capitalism) are incompatible with autocratic or totalitarian regimes. Yet we can overlook the extent to which our own markets are not truly free. Otherwise, how did we come to have Government Motors? So, it's really a matter of degree.
In the Republic of China, the Kuomintang was an authoritarian party-state which directly controlled the "commanding heights" of the economy: shipbuilding, steel, power, plastics, etc. Yet it also nurtured small businesses which led Taiwan to be one of the world's greatest economic success stories. In Singapore, the People's Action Party has been in power since 1959 and has controlled that country with an iron hand since independence in 1965. Has Singapore been rocked by political upheaval as most of the population entered the middle class? Nope. Has it built a world class economy on a foundation that lacks both land and natural resources? Yup. So, there may be more than one way to stir the pot.
On to China:
Prognostications about China include: 1) It is poised for continued out-performance due to its stellar manufacturing base; or 2) It is destined to stagnate as its aging population places greater burdens on the fewer-in-number young; 3) It will be rocked by political turmoil due to income inequality, disaffected minorities and corruption among the elite. No doubt some of these scenarios seem entirely plausible...just as compelling as the many economic projections that we (as PP devotees) have learned to discount. If we look really close, we might even see some themes reminiscent of the good old USA over the last 50 years. So, a bit of HB-style humility may be in order as we try to handicap China and its future.
In the Republic of China, the Kuomintang was an authoritarian party-state which directly controlled the "commanding heights" of the economy: shipbuilding, steel, power, plastics, etc. Yet it also nurtured small businesses which led Taiwan to be one of the world's greatest economic success stories. In Singapore, the People's Action Party has been in power since 1959 and has controlled that country with an iron hand since independence in 1965. Has Singapore been rocked by political upheaval as most of the population entered the middle class? Nope. Has it built a world class economy on a foundation that lacks both land and natural resources? Yup. So, there may be more than one way to stir the pot.
On to China:
Prognostications about China include: 1) It is poised for continued out-performance due to its stellar manufacturing base; or 2) It is destined to stagnate as its aging population places greater burdens on the fewer-in-number young; 3) It will be rocked by political turmoil due to income inequality, disaffected minorities and corruption among the elite. No doubt some of these scenarios seem entirely plausible...just as compelling as the many economic projections that we (as PP devotees) have learned to discount. If we look really close, we might even see some themes reminiscent of the good old USA over the last 50 years. So, a bit of HB-style humility may be in order as we try to handicap China and its future.
Re: China
I'm just trying to throw some healthy skepticism into what often feels like a China love-fest.
They may smoothly move into a role as a world economic superpower...or they may not.
I do not have any bets on either outcome.
Anyone remember back in the 1980s when people thought the Japanese were going to do what people are talking about the Chinese doing today? The way things actually unfolded in the following years was very different from what people were expecting.
They may smoothly move into a role as a world economic superpower...or they may not.
I do not have any bets on either outcome.
Anyone remember back in the 1980s when people thought the Japanese were going to do what people are talking about the Chinese doing today? The way things actually unfolded in the following years was very different from what people were expecting.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
As discussed in this thread, I think there are good reasons for keeping the stock domestic only: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/in ... pic=1196.0doodle wrote: Don't you think that this justifies looking at a stronger global exposure in the PP?
Re: China
I just returned from almost 1 month spent in China and Taiwan, so I believe I have some insights to add here. I spent time in Beijing, Xian, Wuxi, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, so I got a chance to see most of the major cities as well as spend extensive time travelling by Air, Train, Bus, Taxi, and Rickshaw.
My overall impression is that China's ascent has been remarkable, however, there are cracks showing in the foundation and their growth does not seem to be sustainable or healthy in the long term.
I was immediately impressed upon arrival in Beijing - We were staying at a 5 star hotel in the CBD (central business district). There were a few things that impressed me - first was the pollution. The air is so thick with smoke from pollution that you cannot see the sun. This is a symptom of many problems that China has:
1. Rapid growth facilitated by central planning requires huge amounts of energy for construction, as well as ongoing electricity which is supplied mostly by dirty coal plants.
2. Almost no environmental or pollution regulation which allows companies to dump toxic waste and smoke directly into the environment with little concern of legal repercussions.
3. Corruption in government and business which means that even if environmental regulations are passed, it will simply be used as a hammer by which government officials can extract bribes from companies that want to pollute.
The second thing that impressed me upon arrival to Beijing was the difference between old and new China. As a tourist, you can stay in a 5 star hotel that is connected directly to a mall which has stores like Cartier, Rolex, Coach, Louis Vuitton, selling goods at prices that would be ridiculous even in the US. The shops are all empty and deserted. It reminds me of what I've heard Dubai is like: A ghost town built with trade surplus dollars hoping that rich tourists will come and spend their money there. This can't be sustainable.
Then, you can take a rickshaw in front of the hotel down a couple alleys and side streets and see what old china is like - it's like China bulldozed several square miles of downtown and built huge skyscrapers, yet right next to it is the squallor of 3rd world slums. The streets are very narrow and the night markets have a hum and thrive with the velocity of millions of poor people living off of a few Yuan a day and making a living hawking street foods, goods, and services. This is the real China, that the government tries to keep hidden from visitors. You wouldn't even see it if you stayed in cars all the time because the streets and alleys are so narrow that most cars can't even drive on them. You need to take a rickshaw, which is basically a 2 person taxi bolted onto the back of an electric scooter. If you stayed in normal car Taxis and buses, you would stay on the modern paved streets and only see new skyscrapers and American chain stores like McDonalds, KFC, and Starbucks. But if you get in a rickshaw and ask to be taken to a night market, you get to see the real China that is hidden from international tourists.
It has been historically shown that societies that have extreme differences between rich and poor don't last very long and aren't very stable. China has a serious issue with this.
Another thing that I noticed in China are the demographics of the newly rich. Many poor peasant farmers had their land purchased by the government to be bulldozed for new skyscrapers and urban development, and became instantly wealthy by Chinese standards. These people were peasant farmers that don't know how to read or write and are poorly educated. They don't know what to do with their money, and in general, lack manners and socialization skills that exist in most modern countries. They moved to the cities and live in apartments now, yet still have the manners and boorishness you might expect to encounter on the farm. Not that I have anything against farmers, but most of the people I saw that matched this description had very poor hygiene and lacked common courtesy. They would spit and smoke in public places, even if smoking was not allowed. They would push people in crowded areas and generally lacked the courtesy and decency required of large urban populations. They litter and throw garbage everywhere.
In Xian, we saw huge skyscraper apartment buildings being built - 40 or 50 of them, with another 20 or so buildings newly finished yet completely vacant - ghost towns. These buildings were so tall and massive that each one of them must be able to house hundreds of families. This indicates an overall pattern to Chinese development that I noticed:
1. The Chinese government must print money to artificially keep the RMB pegged to the dollar.
2. They use this money to buy land from farmers, bulldoze it, and build centrally planned apartment buildings.
3. Farmers use this newly printed wealth to buy the apartment buildings, move to the cities and urban centers, and become residents.
I don't know how sustainable this growth really is. My guess is that as long as there is a trade surplus significant enough, they can continue to do this, however, a black swan event in Europe or the US that seriously halts or reduces exports for a time might derail the whole thing. I also have serious doubts about the sustainability of these new government planned cities. Where are the jobs? The government can build all of the centrally planned apartments they want, but the people living there need to work somewhere.
Politically, I find China's government will probably not be sustainable in the long term as well. While I was there, I found that they block Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and even most personal blogs like blogspot. Also, the hero worship of Mao Zedung is very disturbing considering he was responsible for the death of tens of millions of people. Until China acknowledges the death toll publicly and denounces Mao, they will never be taken seriously in the world. Can you imagine visiting Germany and finding that the German government still praised Hitler, and celebrated his birthday, and had a huge shrine in his honor? It would be unthinkable - yet this is exactly what China does with Mao Zedung.
Overall, I had a terrific time in China, however, I came away with the conclusion that their economic growth is not sustainable. They have no respect for the environment, intellectual property, and human rights. The government and private industry is also thoroughly corrupt in the way that only a state planned system can be.
My overall impression is that China's ascent has been remarkable, however, there are cracks showing in the foundation and their growth does not seem to be sustainable or healthy in the long term.
I was immediately impressed upon arrival in Beijing - We were staying at a 5 star hotel in the CBD (central business district). There were a few things that impressed me - first was the pollution. The air is so thick with smoke from pollution that you cannot see the sun. This is a symptom of many problems that China has:
1. Rapid growth facilitated by central planning requires huge amounts of energy for construction, as well as ongoing electricity which is supplied mostly by dirty coal plants.
2. Almost no environmental or pollution regulation which allows companies to dump toxic waste and smoke directly into the environment with little concern of legal repercussions.
3. Corruption in government and business which means that even if environmental regulations are passed, it will simply be used as a hammer by which government officials can extract bribes from companies that want to pollute.
The second thing that impressed me upon arrival to Beijing was the difference between old and new China. As a tourist, you can stay in a 5 star hotel that is connected directly to a mall which has stores like Cartier, Rolex, Coach, Louis Vuitton, selling goods at prices that would be ridiculous even in the US. The shops are all empty and deserted. It reminds me of what I've heard Dubai is like: A ghost town built with trade surplus dollars hoping that rich tourists will come and spend their money there. This can't be sustainable.
Then, you can take a rickshaw in front of the hotel down a couple alleys and side streets and see what old china is like - it's like China bulldozed several square miles of downtown and built huge skyscrapers, yet right next to it is the squallor of 3rd world slums. The streets are very narrow and the night markets have a hum and thrive with the velocity of millions of poor people living off of a few Yuan a day and making a living hawking street foods, goods, and services. This is the real China, that the government tries to keep hidden from visitors. You wouldn't even see it if you stayed in cars all the time because the streets and alleys are so narrow that most cars can't even drive on them. You need to take a rickshaw, which is basically a 2 person taxi bolted onto the back of an electric scooter. If you stayed in normal car Taxis and buses, you would stay on the modern paved streets and only see new skyscrapers and American chain stores like McDonalds, KFC, and Starbucks. But if you get in a rickshaw and ask to be taken to a night market, you get to see the real China that is hidden from international tourists.
It has been historically shown that societies that have extreme differences between rich and poor don't last very long and aren't very stable. China has a serious issue with this.
Another thing that I noticed in China are the demographics of the newly rich. Many poor peasant farmers had their land purchased by the government to be bulldozed for new skyscrapers and urban development, and became instantly wealthy by Chinese standards. These people were peasant farmers that don't know how to read or write and are poorly educated. They don't know what to do with their money, and in general, lack manners and socialization skills that exist in most modern countries. They moved to the cities and live in apartments now, yet still have the manners and boorishness you might expect to encounter on the farm. Not that I have anything against farmers, but most of the people I saw that matched this description had very poor hygiene and lacked common courtesy. They would spit and smoke in public places, even if smoking was not allowed. They would push people in crowded areas and generally lacked the courtesy and decency required of large urban populations. They litter and throw garbage everywhere.
In Xian, we saw huge skyscraper apartment buildings being built - 40 or 50 of them, with another 20 or so buildings newly finished yet completely vacant - ghost towns. These buildings were so tall and massive that each one of them must be able to house hundreds of families. This indicates an overall pattern to Chinese development that I noticed:
1. The Chinese government must print money to artificially keep the RMB pegged to the dollar.
2. They use this money to buy land from farmers, bulldoze it, and build centrally planned apartment buildings.
3. Farmers use this newly printed wealth to buy the apartment buildings, move to the cities and urban centers, and become residents.
I don't know how sustainable this growth really is. My guess is that as long as there is a trade surplus significant enough, they can continue to do this, however, a black swan event in Europe or the US that seriously halts or reduces exports for a time might derail the whole thing. I also have serious doubts about the sustainability of these new government planned cities. Where are the jobs? The government can build all of the centrally planned apartments they want, but the people living there need to work somewhere.
Politically, I find China's government will probably not be sustainable in the long term as well. While I was there, I found that they block Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and even most personal blogs like blogspot. Also, the hero worship of Mao Zedung is very disturbing considering he was responsible for the death of tens of millions of people. Until China acknowledges the death toll publicly and denounces Mao, they will never be taken seriously in the world. Can you imagine visiting Germany and finding that the German government still praised Hitler, and celebrated his birthday, and had a huge shrine in his honor? It would be unthinkable - yet this is exactly what China does with Mao Zedung.
Overall, I had a terrific time in China, however, I came away with the conclusion that their economic growth is not sustainable. They have no respect for the environment, intellectual property, and human rights. The government and private industry is also thoroughly corrupt in the way that only a state planned system can be.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
Fascinating and enlightening, Storm. Thanks very much for taking the time to write that up.
Welcome home!
Welcome home!
Re: China
Wow.
What an amazing collection of observations.
Thank you so much for posting.
The part about the pollution blocking out the sun really got me. If it's blocking out the sun right now, what's going to happen when China begins to become a mature economy? At that point you may need a machete to hack a pathway through the soot to walk down the street.
Think about the staggering level of health problems that this rapid industrialization is going to cause down the road.
What an amazing collection of observations.
Thank you so much for posting.
The part about the pollution blocking out the sun really got me. If it's blocking out the sun right now, what's going to happen when China begins to become a mature economy? At that point you may need a machete to hack a pathway through the soot to walk down the street.
Think about the staggering level of health problems that this rapid industrialization is going to cause down the road.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
Great post.
I would like to know, though, whether we really polluted any less (per capita) in 1960 or 1970 than they do today.
Not that this is an excuse... just that if you take 200 Million people and spread them accross the entire US, you'll see a lot less visible effects of pollution than if you cram 6 times that many people on the east coast of China (slight exaggeration, but you guys get my drift).
Are their catlytic converters and coal plants really worse than ours were a few decades ago?
I would like to know, though, whether we really polluted any less (per capita) in 1960 or 1970 than they do today.
Not that this is an excuse... just that if you take 200 Million people and spread them accross the entire US, you'll see a lot less visible effects of pollution than if you cram 6 times that many people on the east coast of China (slight exaggeration, but you guys get my drift).
Are their catlytic converters and coal plants really worse than ours were a few decades ago?
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: China
Moda, this is a great observation, and pretty much mirrors my thoughts. I think China is environmentally right about where we were during the 1960s and 1970s. Before the Clean Air Act we used to have a huge problem with pollution. I remember hearing about rivers that caught on fire because companies in the US dumped chemical waste directly into the rivers. I think China is in about the same place, except their growth has been faster than ours.moda0306 wrote: Great post.
I would like to know, though, whether we really polluted any less (per capita) in 1960 or 1970 than they do today.
Not that this is an excuse... just that if you take 200 Million people and spread them accross the entire US, you'll see a lot less visible effects of pollution than if you cram 6 times that many people on the east coast of China (slight exaggeration, but you guys get my drift).
Are their catlytic converters and coal plants really worse than ours were a few decades ago?
In some ways they are doing ok - their scooters are mostly electric, which is better than Taiwan which has a lot of gas scooters with 2 stroke engines that pollute, but with all of the coal burning and pollution in the air it is much worse.
I was also told by my tour guide that there are over 4,000 people over 100 years old in Beijing. This is impressive even for a city with a population of over 20 million, but I wondered whether kids born in the city now would live so long due to the pollution. Their long age is mostly due to eating a healthy diet.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
I left China extremely impressed with what I saw as some great entreprenurialism, family values, and honesty from a lot of people I encountered.
- A woman running a pirated DVD shop was signaling to me which movies were of a quality that didn't warrant purchasing the movie.
- A guy ran 2 blocks to return an umbrella I left in a store, expecting nothing in the way of a tip.
I thought that this was pretty impressive. I also felt very safe.
That said, I see that there's probalby a lot of problems being hidden by a centrally controlled government and arbitrary growth.
- A woman running a pirated DVD shop was signaling to me which movies were of a quality that didn't warrant purchasing the movie.
- A guy ran 2 blocks to return an umbrella I left in a store, expecting nothing in the way of a tip.
I thought that this was pretty impressive. I also felt very safe.
That said, I see that there's probalby a lot of problems being hidden by a centrally controlled government and arbitrary growth.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: China
That's really funny.moda0306 wrote: - A woman running a pirated DVD shop was signaling to me which movies were of a quality that didn't warrant purchasing the movie.
You should have asked her if there were any movies good enough for her to pay the rightful owner for the sale of their intellectual property.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
While we were in China, we marveled at their new high speed railway that was just completed between Beijing and Shanghai. You can now travel by train in less than 6 hours between these two large cities. The trip used to take 27 hours. Then, during our visit, I heard the news that 2 trains collided on the track. There is an official death toll of 39 people, however the actual death toll is believed to be much higher. Over 200 people were injured. The government promptly buried the train cars at the crash site, rather than perform a thorough investigation of the causes of the crash. They claimed burying the cars was necessary for "national security reasons, to protect the technology in the cars from foreign spies."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj
We also heard about 3 bridges that collapsed in the last month due to substandard construction. The official government reason they collapsed is that there was "too much traffic."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj
We also heard about 3 bridges that collapsed in the last month due to substandard construction. The official government reason they collapsed is that there was "too much traffic."
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
Here are a few photos showing the pollution. Notice how you can only see a couple blocks in front of you - anything beyond that point is just a grey haze:
The new traffic signs are very impressive:
The Great Wall:
On one occasion we could actually see the sun - I took a picture because it was so unusual. What was also remarkable was that the sun was so dulled due to pollution that you could look right at it without wearing sunglasses and experience no pain at all:
The new traffic signs are very impressive:
The Great Wall:
On one occasion we could actually see the sun - I took a picture because it was so unusual. What was also remarkable was that the sun was so dulled due to pollution that you could look right at it without wearing sunglasses and experience no pain at all:
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
If you wonder what construction in China looks like, take a look at these pics from a recent trip I took around Shanghai:
China Construction pics...
China Construction pics...
"Well, if you're gonna sin you might as well be original" -- Mike "The Cool-Person"
"Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man" -- The Dude
"Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man" -- The Dude
Re: China
That would be funny if it wasn't so ridiculous (and tragic).Storm wrote: While we were in China, we marveled at their new high speed railway that was just completed between Beijing and Shanghai. You can now travel by train in less than 6 hours between these two large cities. The trip used to take 27 hours. Then, during our visit, I heard the news that 2 trains collided on the track. There is an official death toll of 39 people, however the actual death toll is believed to be much higher. Over 200 people were injured. The government promptly buried the train cars at the crash site, rather than perform a thorough investigation of the causes of the crash. They claimed burying the cars was necessary for "national security reasons, to protect the technology in the cars from foreign spies."
We mustn't let this fast train technology fall into the hands of our competitors. If it did, they might travel quickly around their country as well.
I guess it could have been worse. If you had been in North Korea, I'll bet they would have said that the bridges collapsed due to the expression of insufficient love for the Dear Leader by those crossing the bridges.We also heard about 3 bridges that collapsed in the last month due to substandard construction. The official government reason they collapsed is that there was "too much traffic."
***
BTW, what's with all the exotic foreign travel here? I never get to go to places like that.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
New China (Shanghai, specifically):
The real China:
The real China:
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
Great pics. We saw the same think in many cities - dozens of cranes building identical apartment towers. It is truly awe inspiring.jmourik wrote: If you wonder what construction in China looks like, take a look at these pics from a recent trip I took around Shanghai:
China Construction pics...
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines. Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Re: China
Is that a gigantic TV screen on the side of that building in the New China pic above?
***
If you want to talk about an Austrian School misallocation of capital, consider a situation where you have hundreds of millions of illiterate people with no social safety net in a modern economy, and rather than trying to figure out a way to bring them into the modern world you are building skyscrapers with TV screens on the side.
Storm, I liked your description of the ill-mannered farmers spitting and shoving their way through the cities. I am picturing a grim Asian version of the Beverly Hillbillies.
***
If you want to talk about an Austrian School misallocation of capital, consider a situation where you have hundreds of millions of illiterate people with no social safety net in a modern economy, and rather than trying to figure out a way to bring them into the modern world you are building skyscrapers with TV screens on the side.
Storm, I liked your description of the ill-mannered farmers spitting and shoving their way through the cities. I am picturing a grim Asian version of the Beverly Hillbillies.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: China
Problem with most Austrians is that they wouldn't want to fund education of the poor either.
But I agree... sickening.
But I agree... sickening.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
- Thomas Paine
- Thomas Paine
Re: China
Yeah, and don't think Storm's kidding. My kid was in Shanghai last year, he's 24 now, and he was telling us about one day he was walking down the street somewhere and spotted this good looking chick in nice clothes. So he was totally, ehhm, admiring her... Then she shifted her head sideways and spit...
"Well, if you're gonna sin you might as well be original" -- Mike "The Cool-Person"
"Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man" -- The Dude
"Yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man" -- The Dude
Re: China
Storm:
China and Taiwan are very interesting indeed and it's a credit to you that you're trying to understand them. As someone who's traveled there many times over the past 30 years, let me add a few points:
1) A single family home is rarer than hen's teeth in Asia, especially so in China. So, virtually all homes there strike Americans as being "centrally planned apartment buildings." Truth is, even where there is far less central planning (like in Taiwan or Korea) homes are built more or less the same way.
2) You are not the first to notice the social differences between peasant migrants to urban centers and native urbanites. This is fodder for much discussion and humor in China. However, former peasants have usually not cashed in on the sale of "their land" because it was never theirs to sell. Farmland in China has been collectively owned either directly by the state or by communes. Many communes have invested in factories, or allowed members to lease their share of land to neighbors, or they've imported migrant laborers from poorer provinces to actually do the farming. This has enabled many former peasants to seek their fortune in the big city, as urban workers or small-scale entrepreneurs, but not as Beverly Hillbilly style tycoons. In Taiwan, on the other hand, where farmland was owned by the farmers, many have cashed in big time. In China, those unlucky to have farmed on state land can fare far worse if local officials choose to redevelop.
3) If you think air pollution in Beijing is bad now, you should have been there six or seven years ago (not to mention Taipei or Kaohsiung in the early 80's.**) The government has actually done wonders shutting down old factories and power plants in the Beijing area, but the explosion of the car culture has cut into many of the visible gains. To be honest, many parts of China are overcast to begin with. Even worse, in the spring, the northeast is hit with the dreaded yellow sand dust storms that travel from Mongolia all the way to central South Korea. So, like in LA, air quality is bad, but some of the causes are "natural." [**Wiping one's nose in Taipei back then would get you a handkerchief full of soot!!]
4) The use of regulatory schemes to leverage political power and encourage "donations" to officeholders is well known. In China, the politically connected gain access to favors via what is called the "back door", through which they and their "outside money" or "wai kwai" reach the decision makers. Here, the process of exchanging political contributions for favors is currently known as "granting waivers."
5) There is no one, "real China." The Chinese middle class is every bit as real as the rest of the country. Last year, the government's National Bureau of Statistics reported that 25% of the population was middle class. That's close to 325 million. Their footprint is no Potemkin village mirage, since a "big city" experience can be found all over China, from Lanzhou, Chongqing and Wulumuqi in the west to Xiamen, Dalian and Shenzhen in the east. Are there stark differences between locales? Sure. Just as there are between Rodeo Drive and South Central LA.
6) The proximity of big development projects to old neighborhoods is typical of China, but come back in a year or two and those old neighborhoods will be gone. The process is especially far along in Beijing where the traditional hutong neighborhoods with four-sided walled compounds are an endangered species. The outcry was such that the government built phony old-style developments, complete with fiber optic infrastructure. Two year's ago, we visited a store in a city in the far west. When we returned one week later to shop some more, the store and the entire city block had been emptied and cordoned off for demolition. The US hasn't been able to match that since the days of New York's Robert Moses (or pre-2008 Las Vegas.).
7) People displaced by urban renewal are usually given new apartments in the suburbs at discounted prices. This is common because home ownership does not involve ownership of the land. It's also common for apartment blocks to get knocked down every 20 years or so, though with the rise of market-rate condo projects it may become too expensive to continue doing that.
BTW: The "real China" street scene shown above reminds me of a back street near the Xujiahui area of Shanghai (an upscale shopping district.) We could get free breakfast every day in our hotel, but we never ate it. Instead, we'd go down the street to get steamed buns and Chinese fried donuts from the corner stand. Yummy. Stuff like that is more common in Shanghai than Beijing where traditional morning street vendors have been driven from the main streets. I hope that such scenes are not supposed to elicit a negative reaction. If so, then there's no point in visiting the famous Shihlin night market in Taiwan, or the massive Jukdo Market in Pohang South Korea, or Maunakea Market in Honolulu, or the Temple Street Market in Hong Kong. Crowded street markets are a delight to Asians of all backgrounds, and much sought after.
China and Taiwan are very interesting indeed and it's a credit to you that you're trying to understand them. As someone who's traveled there many times over the past 30 years, let me add a few points:
1) A single family home is rarer than hen's teeth in Asia, especially so in China. So, virtually all homes there strike Americans as being "centrally planned apartment buildings." Truth is, even where there is far less central planning (like in Taiwan or Korea) homes are built more or less the same way.
2) You are not the first to notice the social differences between peasant migrants to urban centers and native urbanites. This is fodder for much discussion and humor in China. However, former peasants have usually not cashed in on the sale of "their land" because it was never theirs to sell. Farmland in China has been collectively owned either directly by the state or by communes. Many communes have invested in factories, or allowed members to lease their share of land to neighbors, or they've imported migrant laborers from poorer provinces to actually do the farming. This has enabled many former peasants to seek their fortune in the big city, as urban workers or small-scale entrepreneurs, but not as Beverly Hillbilly style tycoons. In Taiwan, on the other hand, where farmland was owned by the farmers, many have cashed in big time. In China, those unlucky to have farmed on state land can fare far worse if local officials choose to redevelop.
3) If you think air pollution in Beijing is bad now, you should have been there six or seven years ago (not to mention Taipei or Kaohsiung in the early 80's.**) The government has actually done wonders shutting down old factories and power plants in the Beijing area, but the explosion of the car culture has cut into many of the visible gains. To be honest, many parts of China are overcast to begin with. Even worse, in the spring, the northeast is hit with the dreaded yellow sand dust storms that travel from Mongolia all the way to central South Korea. So, like in LA, air quality is bad, but some of the causes are "natural." [**Wiping one's nose in Taipei back then would get you a handkerchief full of soot!!]
4) The use of regulatory schemes to leverage political power and encourage "donations" to officeholders is well known. In China, the politically connected gain access to favors via what is called the "back door", through which they and their "outside money" or "wai kwai" reach the decision makers. Here, the process of exchanging political contributions for favors is currently known as "granting waivers."
5) There is no one, "real China." The Chinese middle class is every bit as real as the rest of the country. Last year, the government's National Bureau of Statistics reported that 25% of the population was middle class. That's close to 325 million. Their footprint is no Potemkin village mirage, since a "big city" experience can be found all over China, from Lanzhou, Chongqing and Wulumuqi in the west to Xiamen, Dalian and Shenzhen in the east. Are there stark differences between locales? Sure. Just as there are between Rodeo Drive and South Central LA.
6) The proximity of big development projects to old neighborhoods is typical of China, but come back in a year or two and those old neighborhoods will be gone. The process is especially far along in Beijing where the traditional hutong neighborhoods with four-sided walled compounds are an endangered species. The outcry was such that the government built phony old-style developments, complete with fiber optic infrastructure. Two year's ago, we visited a store in a city in the far west. When we returned one week later to shop some more, the store and the entire city block had been emptied and cordoned off for demolition. The US hasn't been able to match that since the days of New York's Robert Moses (or pre-2008 Las Vegas.).
7) People displaced by urban renewal are usually given new apartments in the suburbs at discounted prices. This is common because home ownership does not involve ownership of the land. It's also common for apartment blocks to get knocked down every 20 years or so, though with the rise of market-rate condo projects it may become too expensive to continue doing that.
BTW: The "real China" street scene shown above reminds me of a back street near the Xujiahui area of Shanghai (an upscale shopping district.) We could get free breakfast every day in our hotel, but we never ate it. Instead, we'd go down the street to get steamed buns and Chinese fried donuts from the corner stand. Yummy. Stuff like that is more common in Shanghai than Beijing where traditional morning street vendors have been driven from the main streets. I hope that such scenes are not supposed to elicit a negative reaction. If so, then there's no point in visiting the famous Shihlin night market in Taiwan, or the massive Jukdo Market in Pohang South Korea, or Maunakea Market in Honolulu, or the Temple Street Market in Hong Kong. Crowded street markets are a delight to Asians of all backgrounds, and much sought after.
Last edited by TBV on Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.