The GOLD scream room

[dualstow]

While the DOW is down 1% right now (3:00PM EST),
gold is holding fast at 2860$/oz.

That leads to the question of ... what is mathjak doing in reaction to that??!!

Perhaps selling gold?

I don’t think I would be very good at day-trading gold, myself, but I am very happy that CraigR & Harry Browne got to me to accumulate it.

Edit: by the way, thank you Vinny. I’ve been meaning to learn how to change ALL CAPS text to lowercase in my text editor and your post gave me the extra push I needed.

[dualstow]

Btw, it’s an old thread, but ‘What is Going on with Gold Price’ at b’heads recently got a bump, and seajay’s year-end/2022 response to Charles Joseph is, well, gold.

[yankees60]

While the DOW is down 1% right now (3:00PM EST),
gold is holding fast at 2860$/oz.

That leads to the question of ... what is mathjak doing in reaction to that??!!

Perhaps selling gold?

I don’t think I would be very good at day-trading gold, myself, but I am very happy that CraigR & Harry Browne got to me to accumulate it.

Edit: by the way, thank you Vinny. I’ve been meaning to learn how to change ALL CAPS text to lowercase in my text editor and your post gave me the extra push I needed.

Happy to be of service, even though it was non-intentional. Therefore, I'll take ZERO credit and cede all to you since it was up to you to actually accomplish the task.

[dualstow]

[yankees60]

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/gold- ... m_id=31527

Gold Just Hit a New Record. What’s Next?
The spot price surpassed $2,830 for the first time, driven by investors’ uncertainty amid Trump’s tariffs


Valerio Baselli
Feb 5, 2025



When Will Gold Hit $3,000?
Broadly speaking, investors display positive sentiment on gold for 2025. According to UBP’s Kinsella, “it could continue to rise toward levels of around $2,900 to $3,000 per ounce.” Analysts at JPMorgan also write in their annual outlook that they expect gold prices to rise over $3,000, especially if US policies become more disruptive, in the form of higher tariffs, elevated trade tensions, and increased risks to economic growth.

“It is difficult to make price predictions,” Maurizio Mazziero warns, “we are sailing the high seas, at levels that have never been touched: I would say that by now $3,000 is within reach, but the rise could also extend toward $3,200 an ounce. I don’t think anyone can determine that with a good approximation.”

Finally, Diego Franzin, Head of Portfolio Strategies at Plenisfer Investments SGR, reminds that “regardless of short-term price trends, gold will continue to be a strong diversifier, helping contain portfolio volatility due to its low correlation with other assets and offering protection from inflation.”

[ochotona]

I am reading that there is a lot of Congressional dysfunction regarding the swiftly coming March 14 government shutdown date.

GOP controls the government, but is continuing the customary ideological purity circular firing squad, which would require that Democrats given them some votes to pass something. But Democrats might not be in a mood to help Speaker Johnson out.

If the government shuts down, and let's say Fitch really does downgrade US debt, and we move closer to an actual default on the debt, then gold is going to cut through $3000 like butter.

Kitco and others point out that $3420 is the inflation-adjusted all-time-high gold price (if you inflation adjust from 1980), that could be a place where it pauses.

And if we do default on the debt? I'm thinking $5,000 and the US Dollar will tank.

[yankees60]

I am reading that there is a lot of Congressional dysfunction regarding the swiftly coming March 14 government shutdown date.

GOP controls the government, but is continuing the customary ideological purity circular firing squad, which would require that Democrats given them some votes to pass something. But Democrats might not be in a mood to help Speaker Johnson out.

If the government shuts down, and let's say Fitch really does downgrade US debt, and we move closer to an actual default on the debt, then gold is going to cut through $3000 like butter.

Kitco and others point out that $3420 is the inflation-adjusted all-time-high gold price (if you inflation adjust from 1980), that could be a place where it pauses.

And if we do default on the debt? I'm thinking $5,000 and the US Dollar will tank.

What happens to my Treasury holdings that come due on March 14th and there is a default on the debt? They never get repaid?

[dualstow]

What happens to my Treasury holdings that come due on March 14th and there is a default on the debt? They never get repaid?

Report back to us on March 14-15.

[ochotona]

Bills / bonds get repaid whenever the new debt gets issued to pay off the old debt! But I think that's be the least of our worries, because I think EVERYTHING would sell off. The first day of the 1929 Crash was -9% in one day. The 1987 crash was -25% in one day. Think in those terms, now think of many of those, combined with face-ripping short squeezes with almost equal positive gains.

You only need to compound -3% per month for 36 months to get to a 2/3 haircut in stocks. The longer it goes on the worse it gets.

I think there would likely be some litigation, going all the way to the SCOTUS to adjudicate exactly what the heck does this mean from the 14th Amendment?

"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, shall not be questioned."

I think some interpret it as meaning:
1. debt ceilings could impair the validity or value of the public debt of the United States
2. therefore debt ceiling laws are unconstitutional

We don't default on the debt on March 14. We run out of cash to run the government, and we have to preserve cash for a time to pay debts. But eventually, if it goes long enough, we run out of cash totally. Then it's Great Depression 2.0, honestly.

Martial law, rule by fiat, yadda yadda.

[dualstow]

2900+

[pmbug]

The LBMA held a webinar this morning. I listened in. I posted notes on what I got out of it here:

https://www.pmbug.com/threads/bank-of-e ... ost-123954

[seajay]

…
Basically the way the BRICS are going https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 7jLCTp45mT ... no need for US stocks/businesses, US Treasury's, holding/trading multiple currencies in trade weighted proportions with a BRICS-PAY alternative system to SWIFT

Trump's tariffs threats to 'stick with us, America first' ... etc. are more inclined to repulse and drive towards supporting BRICS

Do you really think so? As repulsive as Trump’s tactics can be, I just don’t see the world embracing Russia or China. I think predictions of a move to BRICS is wishful thinking on the part of some people. Not you, necessarily, Seajay, but some people.

Besides, he’s only got 4 years.

Oz has closer trade with China. There's likely to be increased barriers raised between EU/US, and Russia/China can supply energy/raw materials more inexpensively (especially if via BRICS-PAY). UK/US relations were significantly damaged by Biden so the UK is perhaps more inclined to also head the same way as the EU. What trade is lost from/to the US will naturally redirect elsewhere and China has a interest to promote that. Two thirds of the global population are more aligned with BRICS and rising. American isolation policies are inclined to drive anti TINA de-dollarization and accelerated adoption of TARA IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to see another Wall Street Crash of stocks halving, halving again and halving yet again within that 4 year period, in part driven by re-domiciling of the largest stocks. Already Americans can't easily open bank account within the EU/UK due to American policies/laws (reporting requirements). Neither are many US potential exports possible as they fail regulatory requirements (chlorinated chicken EU regulations for example). Isolationist policies are inclined to isolate and Trump is pressing that pedal hard.

[dualstow]

I have to agree with the final sentence. And I’d forgotten about the chlorinated chicken I use a farmers market because I’m spoiled.

What my wife perceives as wishywashyness in Trump is, I believe/hope, his advisors imploring him to cool it in some areas. I like his passion, and I like how he’s shaking things up domestically, but I am not a move-fast-and-break-things kind of guy.

[bitcoininthevp]

I get your point, but lets also just have a good laugh at:

looks at a chart of an asset going 12x in a year:

what good is it?

[ochotona]

I get your point, but lets also just have a good laugh at:
looks at a chart of an asset going 12x in a year:

what good is it?

I prematurely truncated my own sentence. I really meant "what good is it as a portfolio diverisifier?" No one argues the CAGR. I don't. I used to be a whole coiner. But if BTC number-go-up only when QQQ number-go-up then you're taking the same exact bet.

Everyone on this forum, even if they don't hold exactly the orthodox HBPP, at least they believe in the core concept - hold assets which over time tend to go up and have low correlations. That's really the key concept, it's not gold - cash - US stocks - US long bonds.

I think BTC is too new, we don't know how it performs in a true recession and bear market. It wasn't around for the GFC. If it had been invented a decade earlier, I'd be much more comfortable about assertions of it's "liquid goldness".

[dualstow]

Full quote here -

viewtopic.php?p=256473#p256473

[seajay]

I get your point, but lets also just have a good laugh at:
looks at a chart of an asset going 12x in a year:

what good is it?

I prematurely truncated my own sentence. I really meant "what good is it as a portfolio diverisifier?" No one argues the CAGR. I don't. I used to be a whole coiner. But if BTC number-go-up only when QQQ number-go-up then you're taking the same exact bet.

Everyone on this forum, even if they don't hold exactly the orthodox HBPP, at least they believe in the core concept - hold assets which over time tend to go up and have low correlations. That's really the key concept, it's not gold - cash - US stocks - US long bonds.

I think BTC is too new, we don't know how it performs in a true recession and bear market. It wasn't around for the GFC. If it had been invented a decade earlier, I'd be much more comfortable about assertions of it's "liquid goldness".

Since BTC became more mainstream it does seem to be acting as a leveraged stock type holding


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 55hg3o8Hhz

A primary factor for me is that of costs and taxes making BTC less net rewarding. Also the security of all BTC being 'stored' in a public ledger, yes you may hold the private key in a secure offline wallet but you're at the mercy of that public ledger - that anyone can copy to their own private system and apply attacks. The for all time digital audit trail is yet another factor, where big-data analysis may still identify actual individuals intermediate peer to peer transactions when those individuals thought that they were transacting anonymously. In contrast physical gold passed privately and smelted only has local potential private records.

[ochotona]

You totally get it!

[bitcoininthevp]

A primary factor for me is that of costs and taxes making BTC less net rewarding.

Can you explain these two factors?

[ochotona]

I am making another price pronouncement:

If gold corrects back to $2775, buy that dip.

That is all.

[seajay]

A primary factor for me is that of costs and taxes making BTC less net rewarding.

Can you explain these two factors?

UK. Buying bitcoin in the first instance has to be via the likes of relatively expensive 3.5% to buy for instance using Coinbase, and where all/any movements/transactions incur additional costs. You also have to undergo a test before you can open a account to make sure you understand the risks and the questions foil many - ambiguous (such as double negatives) to dissuade individuals. Then taxation - each/every transaction has to be recorded for tax reporting (capital gains) purposes. Then there's banks inclination to reject transfers/payments (increasingly over here anti-money-laundering regulations have the banks at risk of penalties or even losing their licence - so they're more inclined to reject individuals/transactions if there's even the slightest doubt).

BTC since its broader acceptance (2017/18) is acting much like a leverage stock ETF. Easier to just buy into such a ETF such as TQQQ (3x QQQ) 7/93 with cash rather than 5/95 Bitcoin/cash ... or sucklike https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 3ObRtN2oJI I can buy/hold LQQ3 (GBP version of TQQQ) in a tax exempt account paying relatively little in the way of costs etc. and rebalance inexpensively.

[ochotona]

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick says President Trump’s goal is to abolish the IRS and “let all the outsiders pay.”

Wow... they want to bring on the Katastrophenhausse... the crack-up boom!

Can you imagine what gold would do if markets decide they really want to get rid of the IRS, and what that would do to the debt? Your other assets will go into the crapper, but gold would soar, and you'd be able to re-balance into equities and bonds at pennies on the dollar.

[dualstow]

btw gold hit 2940+ per AJPM
What is the inflation adjusted all time high?

[ochotona]

btw gold hit 2940+ per AJPM
What is the inflation adjusted all time high?

Whatever gold price you use for the peak 1980 price (I get quoted different things), multiply by 3.8929

It seems we blew past it already?

What will happen if the Ft Knox audit shows too little (or too much) actual physical inventory? That would be interesting. It had better be spot-on.

[yankees60]

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick says President Trump’s goal is to abolish the IRS and “let all the outsiders pay.”

Wow... they want to bring on the Katastrophenhausse... the crack-up boom!

Can you imagine what gold would do if markets decide they really want to get rid of the IRS, and what that would do to the debt? Your other assets will go into the crapper, but gold would soar, and you'd be able to re-balance into equities and bonds at pennies on the dollar.

Could not determine if you'd written a real word or one you made up. The former:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/katastrophenhausse

All outsiders pay?

Before the establishment of the income tax in 1913 (though didn't Lincoln also have an income tax) .... the governments financed through both tariffs and other fees?

He is saying that sources 100% outside of this country will replace all the income presently brought in via the income tax?

If so, I need another Trump translation from someone here.

Seems like you cannot take literally what he says. therefore among the many things it can mean ...what do you think it means?

I'm one who cannot read between the lines. I believe in clear communications and expect the same from others, generally accepting what they say at face value (unless I've determined they are a documented liar).