The GOLD scream room

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:10 am

Interesting post in Bogleheads:

Unread postby asset_chaos » Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:38 pm

BHP Billiton continues to postpone investing in the expansion of Olympic Dam, one of the largest copper-gold-uranium-silver complexes ever found. They say publically in disclosures to the stock exchange that it's because they have a pessimistic view of metal prices in the near to medium (10 year) term going high enough to pay for the expansion costs. I'm not saying BHP has to be right in their prediction, but would you outline your thesis for why these well-resourced (pun intended-) experienced professional mining and mineral processing investors are wrong in their outlook?

(disclaimer: as my core stock investment is total world stock index fund, I'm sure I own some BHP, but I don't know how much; neither do I work for BHP.)
Regards, | | Guy
asset_chaos
Location: Melbourne

dragoncar · Post by **dragoncar** » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:45 pm

dualstow wrote: Interesting post in Bogleheads:

Unread postby asset_chaos » Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:38 pm

BHP Billiton continues to postpone investing in the expansion of Olympic Dam, one of the largest copper-gold-uranium-silver complexes ever found. They say publically in disclosures to the stock exchange that it's because they have a pessimistic view of metal prices in the near to medium (10 year) term going high enough to pay for the expansion costs. I'm not saying BHP has to be right in their prediction, but would you outline your thesis for why these well-resourced (pun intended-) experienced professional mining and mineral processing investors are wrong in their outlook?

(disclaimer: as my core stock investment is total world stock index fund, I'm sure I own some BHP, but I don't know how much; neither do I work for BHP.)
Regards, | | Guy
asset_chaos
Location: Melbourne

Gold is the bane of my portfolio, but what if expansion is expensive? If gold needs to hit $10k in 10 years to make expansion profitable, that doesn't imply that gold won't go up - just that it won't go up enough to cover the high expansion costs.

murphy_p_t · Post by **murphy_p_t** » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:51 pm

one spot to look is how the majors were holding hedges against gold 10 years into the bull market and then unwound them ahead of the correction...sharegolders didnt win out...coming or going...not saying theyll b wrng ths time....

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:01 pm

sharegolder, hah! I like that. Is that someone who holds gold via ETFs?

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:34 pm

GVX (gold volatility) now down near 4 year lows. I think that's bullish!

Just sayin'.

MachineGhost · Post by **MachineGhost** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 3:53 am

Reub wrote: GVX (gold volatility) now down near 4 year lows. I think that's bullish!

Just sayin'.

No demand, no volatility???

Post by **dualstow** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:48 am

I expect some screaming today.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:45 am

dualstow wrote: I expect some screaming today.

Nah...even with the gains YTD, gold has become less significant to the overall performance of the portfolio. The question is whether one will have the fortitude to re-balance into this asset when a band is breached. This is what keeps me up at night.

Update: as I was writing this post, GLD rocketed up 1% and has now settled up .6%

Post by **dualstow** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:10 am

It really did rocket up. What an interesting morning!
I bought eagles several weeks ago at about 1370 including markup. Can't afford to buy more anytime soon.

Kshartle · Post by **Kshartle** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:29 am

dualstow wrote: It really did rocket up. What an interesting morning!
I bought eagles several weeks ago at about 1370 including markup. Can't afford to buy more anytime soon.

Unemployment claims were up 25k from last week.

Gee I thought the economy was supposed to finally pick up after it warmed up a little?

I thought we were supposed to get all these catch-up jobs.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:42 am

The movement was well after the claims announcement. Equities, bonds and gold all reversed their positions.

Kshartle · Post by **Kshartle** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:52 am

buddtholomew wrote: The movement was well after the claims announcement. Equities, bonds and gold all reversed their positions.

The big spike yes...but I've got the low of around $1,269 occuring just a couple minutes before the claims at which point they reversed.

Unemployment claims always make for a volitile report and this one looks bullish for more fed "stimulus" on the horizon.

I'm not really watching the markets or the news today though, I'm in the office. Ukraine activity?

MachineGhost · Post by **MachineGhost** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:35 am

Big spike on RSX yesterday too, but it closed down. Must be a lot of bottom fishers getting burnt and bailing. I'm watching it like a hawk for the Big Breakout.

Kshartle · Post by **Kshartle** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 12:01 pm

MachineGhost wrote: Big spike on RSX yesterday too, but it closed down. Must be a lot of bottom fishers getting burnt and bailing. I'm watching it like a hawk for the Big Breakout.

Breakout or breakdown? I bought a couple hundred shares at $22.85 a few weeks ago. With everything negative that's happened since I consider it bullish that the price is relatively unchanged.

barrett · Post by **barrett** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:25 pm

Anyone care to speculate what drove the price of gold up so sharply earlier today? One big buyer? Program trading in gold ETFs? PS finally dropping his analytical demeanor and going all in? I'm still relatively new to this asset having only implemented the PP at the beginning of this year.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Tue May 27, 2014 2:06 pm

Not a scream -- more like, "whatever."

So happy to be in PP and gotten over the gold must go up, why is it being manipulated down crowd.

Mike

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Tue May 27, 2014 6:52 pm

Just know that you are protected. And when it comes back it will be with a vengeance!

murphy_p_t · Post by **murphy_p_t** » Tue May 27, 2014 7:08 pm

here's an opinion http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... aking.html

Ad Orientem · Post by **Ad Orientem** » Tue May 27, 2014 9:43 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Not a scream -- more like, "whatever."

So happy to be in PP and gotten over the gold must go up, why is it being manipulated down crowd.

Mike

+1

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Tue May 27, 2014 10:24 pm

A PP loss of .15% puts GLD's 2.14% decline into perspective.

portart · Post by **portart** » Thu May 29, 2014 4:07 pm

Yeah, I noticed the balance in my PP is very close to all time highs although it is not charging ahead with the market. However I was wondering how I would FEEL right now with 60% stocks. I would be worried that a decline could come at any time and I might start selling in anticipation of an event that may or may not happen soon even if it is inevitable. I might be selling gold now, worried about a drop under 1,000.00 if I was a gold bug owning gold with little diversification of stocks, bonds and cash. 3) If was just a bond hound with little trust of anything else, I could get crushed with hard rise in rates with the rates at all time lows. I just have more peace of mind with PP. How much that is worth to you is a personal decision. But with an ave gain of over 7.5% over the last ten years, I am a believer for life.

annieB · Post by **annieB** » Fri May 30, 2014 9:20 am

Harry:

Can you hear us now?

goodasgold · Post by **goodasgold** » Fri May 30, 2014 11:50 am

I know, I know: we should all ignore short-term results. They are meaningless. But inspired by the last few days' gold chart (especially today's) I couldn't help thinking of the old Johnny Cash classic

:

"Ring Of Fire"

Love is a burning thing
And it makes a fiery ring.
Bound by wild desire
I fell into a ring of fire.

I fell into a burning ring of fire,
I went down, down, down as the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns,
The ring of fire, the ring of fire....

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Fri May 30, 2014 11:53 am

goodasgold wrote: I know, I know: we should all ignore short-term results. They are meaningless. But inspired by the last few days' gold chart (especially today's) I couldn't help thinking of the old Johnny Cash classic :

"Ring Of Fire"

Love is a burning thing
And it makes a fiery ring.
Bound by wild desire
I fell into a ring of fire.

I fell into a burning ring of fire,
I went down, down, down as the flames went higher
And it burns, burns, burns,
The ring of fire, the ring of fire....

Get some Preparation H

goodasgold · Post by **goodasgold** » Fri May 30, 2014 12:05 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Get some Preparation H

If I drink the Prepartion H, will it take my mind off worries about the price of gold?

The GOLD scream room

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