The GOLD scream room

[Cortopassi]

mj,

You should be posting in the "I'm a closet daytrader forum..."

[mathjak107]

ha ha ha , when it comes to gold -yep , i am a dirty lil timer .

so far so good too. gold has been my biggest winner this year just darting in and out . up multiple 5 digits . selling in a rise and rebuying a few thousand lower putting the difference each time in my other models .

[dualstow]

mj,

You should be posting in the "I'm a closet daytrader forum..."

It's funny how every once in a while mathjak breaks out with some good common sense, the way people say "I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out." Ok, a lot of common sense lately. But I shudder when newcomers ask questions and get answers rife with timing.

[Cortopassi]

mj,

You are:

1) Bragging. Fine, everyone gets to if they want. I have friends who do it all the time, or used to when I listened, about how much they just made on the latest penny stock.

2) Poisoning minds. I'm not trying to be funny here. You are like the latest and greatest stock newsletter scam. Yes, you too can make 10,000+ a month trading gold with little to no risk. I KNOW that's not what you are intending, but that's exactly what is playing in the minds of a lot of people reading your response. Even to me. The first thing that went through my mind is "Damn, he made more in the past couple months than I can hope my PP makes all year. Maybe I can try trading again." Bullshit. 99% of the people in the market cannot do the kind of trading you are doing and handle the losses or protect themselves accordingly. I put myself up as a prime example.

[mathjak107]

i can only tell you what i do , i don't expect anyone to follow suit . but more and more i just find gold is not a buy and hold forever like stocks or bonds . to really make good use of it , it seems you have to nail your profits when these temporary conditions present themselves and buy it back when they don't .

others can buy and hold gold , it is just something i choose not to do and never did . i own it frequently but only until i can sell it and repeat .

[dualstow]

That's exactly what Will Rogers did with stocks!

[Cortopassi]

i can only tell you what i do , i don't expect anyone to follow suit . but more and more i just find gold is not a buy and hold forever like stocks or bonds . to really make good use of it , it seems you have to nail your profits when these temporary conditions present themselves and buy it back when they don't .

others can buy and hold gold , it is just something i choose not to do and never did . i own it frequently but only until i can sell it and repeat .

Fair enough, I don't recall if you ever outlined what you did in 2001 and 2008, -- you held stocks all the way through? Didn't try to time as you do with gold? If not, why? Seems like you could have made a killing and could have smelled it coming a mile away? Or are the gold ups/downs just more obvious to you? And if so, you need to start a newsletter...

Or maybe you did and I missed it.

[mathjak107]

2001 i was fully invested in the growth model but it wasn't too bad since the model avoided tech and dot coms . yeah we were down but retirement was still way off in the future so we just took it in stride. in fact it worked out great because we were making good money in the real estate partnership and investing it through the 2,000's . 2008 we sold two co-ops so the money went right in .

2007 i started to shift over to my retirement model as we just bought the house in the pocono's and i was thinking i would retire very early on .

so i was pretty much at about 40% equities and used a combo of the growth and income model and the income model and no gold .

[mathjak107]

i used a combo of the insight growth and income model and income model starting in 2007 , growth model prior .

today i use a mix of the 3 as i can fine tune the time frames better than with just 2 of the models ..

the growth model runs from 90-100% equities , the growth and income model varies from 60-70% equities , the income model has holdings vary , right now equities 23% .

these are the model results
of course 2000 to 2015 were pretty crappy stock years but the models still did okay considering . in fact you didn't need stocks at all in hind site , the 30 year bond would have beaten them ,.

growth model

2000 minus 10.80
2001 minus 6.40
2002 minus 17.1
2003 +46.10
2004 +12.4
2005 +11.20
2006 15.70
2007 +7.30
2008 minus 42.7
2009 +31.80
2010 +17.7
2011 minus 1.70
2012 +16
2013 +26.50
2014 +9.70
2015 +1
2016 +6.70..

growth and income returns

2000 +2.7
2001 +1.3
2002 minus 6.4
2003 +33
2004 +11.50
2005 +8.20
2006 +13.7
2007 +6.1
2008 minus 33
2009 +28.1
2010 + 12.28
2011 +.30
2012 +13.40
2013 +20.30
2014 +9.30
2015 +1
2016 +8.20
income model

2000 +.30
2001 +1.30
2002 +5.40
2003 +8.40
2004 +4.20
2005 +3.60
2006 + 6.90
2007 +4.00
2008 minus 18
2009 +20
2010 +12.29
2011 +6.30
2012 +10.70
2013 +2.90
2014+7.10
2015+ .1
2016 +6.70

2 years cash

[Cortopassi]

i bought back today what i sold at a good couple of thousand dollar difference a few weeks ago . .

wash and repeat .

Bought too soon....

[mathjak107]

a little bit but i sold quite a bit so much higher . i only bought a fraction of the position so if we go over a 1% drop i will add back another piece .

i missed it this morning when i was at the gym .

it is crazy how much i made in gold since nov just buying it , never capturing the peak of course , selling it and rebuying again lower and repeating .

[Libertarian666]

a little bit but i sold quite a bit so much higher . i only bought a fraction of the position so if we go over a 1% drop i will add back another piece .

i missed it this morning when i was at the gym .

it is crazy how much i made in gold since nov just buying it , never capturing the peak of course , selling it and rebuying again lower and repeating .

I'm sure you'll let us know when you start to make big losses. Right?

[mathjak107]

you will know .... we all watch the same investments . if gold falls from here , what i own is down . if it goes up and i sell it i will tell ya .

[Libertarian666]

you will know .... we all watch the same investments . if gold falls from here , what i own is down . if it goes up and i sell it i will tell ya .

But if it goes down you won't sell it, so you won't have lost anything.

Why didn't I think of this plan? It seems foolproof!

[mathjak107]

you are correct ! i will just hold it until i can sell it and repeat . .

been doing this for years with gold off and on.

[Cortopassi]

But not with stocks -- those are buy and hold...right?...or tweaked into different models...all the time...

I like your thoughts mj, but you are obviously much more of an active trader than most people here want to be.

[mathjak107]

i am only active with the variable portion of my portfolio . the fun part as i call it . the main models i use have stuck to the plan for 30 years ,.sure the funds may change here and there over time but the plan is still the plan .

as i mentioned a few times , i am not happy being average at anything . so at heart i am a tinkerer , a dirty lil trader . so i use the newsletter to keep me from myself and it has worked very well that way .

i don't have to plan or even think about the bulk of our investments , i just follow the script . but i keep a little money to feed my addiction on the side . but over the years i have been very lucky at my fun trading but nothing i would consider doing with my serious money ..

[dualstow]

i am not happy being average at anything

Sigh, the standard slur of the active investor & the paid advisor.

[Smith1776]

i am not happy being average at anything

Sigh, the standard slur of the active investor & the paid advisor.

It is indeed counterintuitive, but totally true in investing, that being average is actually quite excellent.

[dualstow]

i am not happy being average at anything

Sigh, the standard slur of the active investor & the paid advisor.

It is indeed counterintuitive, but totally true in investing, that being average is actually quite excellent.

Right!

And mathjak, no offense, but did you notice Medium Tex would always call his shots on the same day that he made them? He would post, "I bought some Intel today." Don't you think it's a bit tacky saying, after the alleged fact oh, I made so much money on trading gold because I'm so damn clever ? If you call in advance it might be fun to watch, I'll concede that.

[mathjak107]

well last gold buy was wed and then some more yesterday so i will tell you when i sell again . holding 125k with 100k on wed and 25k yesterday .

still down a bit .

letting it ride until the next rise . i usually try to capture a few hundred each trade in and out . i sell , it drops a few thousand and i buy and repeat .

if it goes up instead , i will wait for the first sizable drop and buy and repeat . been doing this for years now .



.

[dualstow]

well last gold buy was wed and then some more yesterday so i will tell you when i sell again .

.

sounds good, and good luck to you.

[stuper1]

Mathjak,

Just curious, do you have a separate core pot of gold, maybe physical, that you essentially never sell? Or when you say that you sell, do you mean that you sell all of your gold at that time?

I could actually see doing what you're doing by keeping one portion of gold in my PP, which would rarely get bought or sold, and another portion of gold in my VP, that could get traded frequently.

[mathjak107]

a little bit but i sold quite a bit so much higher . i only bought a fraction of the position so if we go over a 1% drop i will add back another piece .

i missed it this morning when i was at the gym .

it is crazy how much i made in gold since nov just buying it , never capturing the peak of course , selling it and rebuying again lower and repeating .

I'm sure you'll let us know when you start to make big losses. Right?

technovilist , if you want to see the losses , i will disclose them right here with an actual copy of my statement so we can put that to bed if you think i am only telling half a story .

to answer stupor , the gold portion i keep 100% variable . after dealing with gold for 30 years i learned grab your gains when you can and in little steps . if you don't they will typically be gone in short order . gold to me is like that fair weather friend unlike the rest of my portfolio investments which have only gone up over my lifetime and are simply about time in the markets . gold to me is always about timing the markets ..

i consider the gold portion like i do my fun trading , it has never been where i do my "serious investing" which is the insight models . i will dabble more with gold than keep it a core asset . never needed it it for insurance and hopefully never will . . cash, bonds and real estate are all i ever needed .for the black swans which are temporary events through our history here .

sure one day things can be different , but so far waiting for that day decreased your balance enough that you gave up more than any dip took away in the temporary event unless you did it to yourself with poor investor behavior .


in the interest of this group i will post my my ytd trading statement for those who suspect i am not disclosing my losses , here is my actual fidelity statement showing my closed positions since jan 1st . this is the darting in and out i have done since january .

the only dabble i have open at this time is 125k in gld .

gains locked in after subtracting out any losses were 71,130.00 on just what was sold the last 4 months . gold sold since january accounted for 26,000 in gains of the 71,130.00 . i count 27 times gold was bought and sold as i captured each roll back and took advantage of each gain ..

that nice big long green line below is gold .

to be fair though the bulk of the gold profits were actually gold bought in nov and december after it fell so we are actually looking at buys and sells the last 5 months or so ..

all were held and sold at different times and the same money recycled . hold times and amount invested was variable .

losses , which are already included in the 71,130.00 were 603.00 bucks , they are the 3 little red lines below .:

150.00 in ibm , got out of that just in time as it plunged after , about 10 bucks in vxf and 678.00 less a 235.00 dividend in verizon . you can see losses are kept very tight and low . if i guessed wrong after a dip on the stock i sell it fast .

top earners in what were sold were :

gold 26,000

ivv 11,842.00

vanguard VIG 10,200.00

slyv small cap value 9653.00

hyg high yield 9030.00



the scan can be hard to read so here is the rest of what it shows .

chevron +332.00
cisco + 285.00
coke +268.00
pimco mint +279.00
pfizer + 172.00
shy + 303.00
tlt +3476.00

those stocks represent the dogs of the dow . they were quick trades where the stocks dipped a bit after i bought them , they recovered the next day but lacked the interest in them i hoped to see so they were sold at a small profit and the money put in something else . .




so now you can see that i am not hiding anything . and only talk about the successes .

as far as the insight models this year :

my growth model is up 9.22% , my growth and income model is up 6.86% and the income model up 2.36% . the income model attempts to be a proxy for bonds and cash but with the ability to do better with its 23% stake in an equity dividend fund but with almost 70% less volatility than the s&p 500.

so there you have my full disclosure .

this is what works well for me , you all need to do what works best for you and what meets your goals .

as far as devoted time , i put 30 seconds a week in to the insight models . the trading time varies but it really does not take long to see what fell and may be worth betting on a small recovery .

the key i find to this dabbling is don't go for the home run . gain a few hundred each time if you have to and get out . things always drop a bit and recover a bit . i got lucky and bought gold as it sold off after the election and planned to hold it a few months until the election smoke cleared . it recovered nicely and it was a shame not to pick the low hanging fruit and take those big gains and wait for a roll back . which things did .

even if something is in a downturn the volatility lets you capture it as it dips and rises on the way down .

the danger is sticking around for more than that and getting caught in a down trend on it . something i can say i rarely let happen as you see .

both verizon and ibm got smashed after i sold it .

but as i said , as good as this darting in and out can be , it is not what i will do with my serious money . basically the insight models have pretty much been my "permanent potfolio's " and the dabbling my variable .

i just may increase the income model at times of high valuations and increase the growth model at times of low valuations or i might even hang out in the butterfly for really uncertain times like the elections were but pretty much i am in at least 2 of the 3 at any given time , the proportions and amounts may just vary ..

i have been through crashes , financial collapses , the booms and the recessions the last 35 years and the portfolio's did just fine .

we all have our idea's of what is the right mix and strategy for us . but we have to realize that we will always think that those more aggressive than us are being risky and careless and those less aggressive are leaving the low hanging fruit to die on the vine when it was there for the taking ..

[dualstow]

to answer stup(e)r , the gold portion i keep 100% variable

100%? I was sure that you had a core 20% in gold for the golden butterfly. So, you're not really running a g.b. portfolio?

Btw, I don't know how it appears to others, but for me the smugmug image is illegible. I tried every which way to load it and blow it up, to no avail.