The GOLD scream room

[ochotona]

Gold is below 200 day moving average, and has negative momentum, so it may head lower... But it sure is volatile.

[dualstow]

Gold is below 200 day moving average, and has negative momentum, so it may head lower... But it sure is volatile.

It is? I thought it was 1238

[ochotona]

Gold is below 200 day moving average, and has negative momentum, so it may head lower... But it sure is volatile.

It is? I thought it was 1238

I'm sorry, GLD has negative momentum, not gold metal... due to the expense ratio I think

[Cortopassi]

Yin and Yang lately has been very interesting to watch. Stocks up, gold and bonds down and vice versa. Pretty consistent past couple weeks, and along the way the PP seems to be eeking out little bits of gain as it happens. No complaints!

[ochotona]

Yin and Yang lately has been very interesting to watch. Stocks up, gold and bonds down and vice versa. Pretty consistent past couple weeks, and along the way the PP seems to be eeking out little bits of gain as it happens. No complaints!

Like a hedge fund

[ochotona]

Mathjak has a stock news letter that recently gave him good advice about derisking his stock portfolio.

Is there a gold newsletter out there that is worth a dang?

[mathjak107]

most of them are gone now . the ones i used to see were gold bugs and really not useful . from time to time more conventional news letters will use gold or gold stocks but they are handled no differently than any fund weighted in a sector would be traded. they don't just cater to gold nor always hold gold ..

[mathjak107]

Mathjak has a stock news letter that recently gave him good advice about derisking his stock portfolio.

Is there a gold newsletter out there that is worth a dang?

actually they followed my lead . i had mentioned last week i cut down the small cap position k in the gb since slyv acts like it is leveraged moving 2 to 3x the s&p .

after such a big run up i thought it was a good idea .

they announced last night they were selling off some small cap funds in some of the models since valuations are now higher than large caps

[sophie]

Mathjak has a stock news letter that recently gave him good advice about derisking his stock portfolio.

Is there a gold newsletter out there that is worth a dang?

How do you know it was "good" advice?

Answer to your question: no. But that's not specific to gold.

[mathjak107]

hind site is the only way we ever know what is good advice . but some things just make sense since trees just don't grow to the sky so when things reach levels where they can go higher but the risk is likely greater than the reward it may be a good idea to cut back a bit .

there is nothing that is not extra risky since the election but somethings can be more volatile than the rest of the pack . the last few weeks it took both GLD and tlt together to equal the drops in SLYV on the down days .

[dualstow]

ocho, you don't need a newsletter.

[Xan]

Why would somebody who could predict the future waste his time selling a newsletter?

[dualstow]

Why would somebody who could predict the future waste his time selling a newsletter?

Not to mention all those trade-like-me books and discs. If you made that much money, go sailing for Pete's sake,

[mathjak107]

well the insight newsletter must have special powers because they have beaten the s&p now by almost 1% higher a year over the 30 years i was a subscriber .

actually they make no attempt to predict . they just put nicely balanced portfolio's together on a few different volatility levels and do some nudging to better fit the big picture . once things become trends , fighting trends rarely is a good idea so slight shifts in funds usually works out well for most of these types of newsletters as opposed the timing newsletters and trading newsletters .

vanguard has them too and they do about the same performance wise .. it isn't hard to do when you don't care about a fund beating an index . they only use the funds through their sweet spots and then swap em . even if they are wrong you would never get hurt . you just might do about the same as the s&p in that case .

the golden butterfly is just slightly behind their growth and income model .

[dualstow]

So almost 1% minus the cost of the subscription? Pass.
I get nearly all of Louis Navellier's newsletters for free and I don't bother with them for my own holdings.

[mathjak107]

1% a year for 30 years is a ton of money . not bad for 99 bucks a year up until last year when they went up to 129.00 for 13 months . . 100k in the growth model when i started in 1987 is 2.24 million today beating the s&p 500 by more than 438k and during most of the time had less volatility than the s&p 500 since it is not always 100% equity funds .

i used the newsletter because i always liked the idea of a dynamic portfolio that you nudge to keep it on course better than a buy and die model . but i know me . when i was doing it i was always second guessing my last move and thinking about the next move . i would throw in my own market timing too from time to time burning my self . so i liked the newsletter because it kept me from having to think about things and kept me from myself .

total portfolio thinking was about 30 seconds a week reading an update .

the gb interests me and i am giving it a test run but with some dynamic nudging , the pp does not . i can't see betting equal amounts of money on outcomes that are anything but equal as far as playing out . especially today where when fear of rates rising has gold and bonds moving in tandem very powerfully .

the gb is weighted for prosperity and i like that . not only is it weighted for prosperity but the small cap 600 index acts as if it is leveraged so it usually has been offsetting the drops in gold and bonds when they happen by itself ..

but small caps have had an incredible recent run up and not based on profits , just on future perception so at this point they have grown far to rich compared to large caps . so it was prudent for me to nudge it a bit at this time and i moved 5% out of the small caps which represents about 1/3 of the position and moved it in to the s&p 500 instead increasing it to 25% from 20% . portfolio volatility was cut by a lot doing this as that small cap index moves two to 3x the s&p almost daily .

it reaches a point the risks out weigh the reward in certain segments .

[ochotona]

Come on, $1200 dang it!

[ochotona]

Come on, $1200 dang it!

Awww, cruise missiles? No!!!

But the real story will be if gold can't hold the 200 day MA even if cruise missiles are flying around.

[thisisallen]

Didn't you just buy at $1200?

What is the 200MA number?

[ochotona]

Didn't you just buy at $1200?

What is the 200MA number?

I want to buy more... 200 day ma was resistance, I think gold has punched through it. Whether it stays up is the question

[dualstow]

Both gold and the stock market are more resilient, more quickly resilient, to missiles and bombs than they used to be.

[mathjak107]

they realized missiles and bombs are all part of the american culture . we have the only national anthem that has missiles and bombs in it .

[Cortopassi]

they realized missiles and bombs are all part of the american culture . we have the only national anthem that has missiles and bombs in it .

Damn, I never thought of it in that way. Sad realization.

[dualstow]

Well, it's not that sad. I mean since it's about revolution and not taking over other countries.
There are some terrible governments out there with relatively benign anthems.

Correction: War of 1812, defense of Fort McHenry. Whatever.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Star-Spangled_Banner

[ochotona]

Gold sure doesn't have any lasting "crisis alpha" the way people imagine