Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

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Kbg
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Kbg » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:57 pm

pm...my first rule of stock market investing/trading: As soon as I do anything it will initially be very bad. Hopefully you can unload quickly.

Pug,

In terms of message volume ratio, the board should probably be renamed the "Other Discussions" forum. ;)
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:45 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:57 pm
pm...my first rule of stock market investing/trading: As soon as I do anything it will initially be very bad. Hopefully you can unload quickly.
Yeah, it was definitely a really bad way to vest a large chunk of tech company stock. I did find out the reason why I don't have the shares yet though. They do a sell to cover on taxes, and for whatever reason they execute the sell order for the sell to cover and have to wait for that to fully clear before they give me the remaining shares. So, if they initiated the sell to cover on Monday then I should have the shares by Thursday latest to sell. It looks like futures are up as well with some dovish comments from Powell today. So maybe I can get a good rally to sell into. I doubt I'll recover the full 6% drop from Monday, that would require another 4%ish rally, but maybe I can at least recover some of the damages.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:45 am

Well I had the shares for the sell to cover added to my account at least this morning, and I see the sell order on those as of 9am ET this morning. This has me a bit worried though because the person I spoke to yesterday says we don't get the actual shares until that sell order clears, which means I might not get my actual shares until next Monday or Tuesday. Meanwhile, we are down 1% again today. I feel like I'm on a train that is about to crash and I can't jump off. This is turning into a very long week... LOL
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Tortoise » Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:23 pm

Since your RSUs are vesting in such a large chunk, have you considered selling them in several batches over the course of several months or a year to diversify away the risk of selling at the worst possible time? Or are you looking to sell all the RSUs ASAP because you're pretty sure the market will continue its downward trend over that timeframe?
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:47 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:23 pm
Since your RSUs are vesting in such a large chunk, have you considered selling them in several batches over the course of several months or a year to diversify away the risk of selling at the worst possible time? Or are you looking to sell all the RSUs ASAP because you're pretty sure the market will continue its downward trend over that timeframe?
This is a very large chunk dollar value wise, but it's also only 25% of my total shares, the other 75% is still unvested. So I'm really wanting diversification and pulling some chips off the table. I don't count my RSU's in my asset allocation, so if I include that I am actually exposed to stocks well beyond my actual stock allocation. So I definitely want to take some of those chips off the table and diversify. It's also been a very stressful rollercoaster week, every day has been super volatile with a large trading range swings. That 6% drop on Monday was gut wrenching, and since then we have closed up every day but in dramatic fashion. Today we opened up 1%, then quickly plummeted down 1.5%, then rallied the second half of the day to close up a bit over 1%. I am ready to get my cash out of the rollercoaster. I'm also unsure whether what we've been in since Jan 2018 is a giant topping pattern or a consolidation. I fear the former enough to where I will feel much better with that money not stuck in a single high growth mid cap tech stock with a close to triple digit valuation. I won't be as worried after this large chunk comes off, because from here I will at least be dollar cost averaging out in smaller more regular increments and with new grants added in over time.

On the plus side, I checked my account after the close and while I don't see the shares themselves there, my vested account balance now shows the value of them. So I think I might have them to sell tomorrow morning. We've currently erased a bit more than half of that 6% drop on Monday, good enough for me. You guys can see here why I swapped over to a golden butterfly, this market drama stress really takes a toll on me mentally. It will be nice once this chunk is sold and I can get back to mental peace again.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Xan » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:02 pm

Not to speak out of turn, but it sounds like you should be at peace anyway. You have a plan, you know exactly what you're going to do, it's going to happen when it happens. Everything else is out of your control and not worth worrying about. The stock is worth what it's worth when it sells. The teeth-gnashing is pretty much pointless.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:16 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:02 pm
Not to speak out of turn, but it sounds like you should be at peace anyway. You have a plan, you know exactly what you're going to do, it's going to happen when it happens. Everything else is out of your control and not worth worrying about. The stock is worth what it's worth when it sells. The teeth-gnashing is pretty much pointless.
At least you're getting shares. And the price could be worse later. I got a big award of SLB in 2012, then it went to $100 in 2014, I vested in early 2015 and I sold it at $83, and that "loss" just upset me. Well... many years later... SLB is $34.94, so I'm satisfied how it turned out.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by shekels » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:35 am

It is very frustrating when your hands are tied and the market is going against you.. Before I retired, very recently, I was selling company stock down to zero percent of my 401 and rolled it to a interest only fund. I had seen many other employees before me that had kept company stock and were not able to retire when they wanted, because the stock was falling.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:52 am

It is done. I got my shares this morning and sold. Stock was down about .5%. So I sold for much less than I would have a few weeks ago, and about 4% less than I would have if I were to have sold on Friday. But it's good enough. I sold about 1% under the original grant value, so it's not the end of the world. I may also be able to make that back in the future if the stock appreciates for my future vestings. Either way, I feel relieved to have pulled some chips off the table.

EDIT: Looks like I sold just in time today, shares started selling really hard almost as soon as I hit the sell button. I was tempted to hang in for a bit to see if the market was going to rally, glad I decided to just click the button.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:06 am

All I can say to you guys who were ever actually able to pull money out of a stock vesting program but not as much as you hoped, boo hoo.

I have been at multiple startup tech firms, all stock vested was always completely underwater, companies went bankrupt, never went IPO.

Only one that did go IPO was Palm. Had my calculator out that day fantasizing on the money I just made. By the time they vested, all were underwater, never to go positive again, and our group got shut down 3 years later.

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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:13 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:06 am
All I can say to you guys who were ever actually able to pull money out of a stock vesting program but not as much as you hoped, boo hoo.

I have been at multiple startup tech firms, all stock vested was always completely underwater, companies went bankrupt, never went IPO.

Only one that did go IPO was Palm. Had my calculator out that day fantasizing on the money I just made. By the time they vested, all were underwater, never to go positive again, and our group got shut down 3 years later.
Startups are a gamble. You either win the lottery or you lose. People know the risks going in. I work for a profitable mid-cap tech company that is a household name and has been around for years. There's a big difference. My company is not a gamble over the long term. Matter of fact the very generous equity grant was one of the main reasons I chose this company over other prospects. It can get choppy in the short term though as it is a very high beta stock.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:15 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:13 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:06 am
All I can say to you guys who were ever actually able to pull money out of a stock vesting program but not as much as you hoped, boo hoo.

I have been at multiple startup tech firms, all stock vested was always completely underwater, companies went bankrupt, never went IPO.

Only one that did go IPO was Palm. Had my calculator out that day fantasizing on the money I just made. By the time they vested, all were underwater, never to go positive again, and our group got shut down 3 years later.
Startups are a gamble. You either win the lottery or you lose. People know the risks going in. I work for a profitable mid-cap tech company that is a household name and has been around for years. There's a big difference. My company is not a gamble over the long term. Matter of fact the very generous equity grant was one of the main reasons I chose this company over other prospects. It can get choppy in the short term though as it is a very high beta stock.
Palm should have been Apple. That's my only regret. They owned the market. "Palm Pilot" was referenced everywhere. Our team was put together to get the first Palm phone together. But there was so much management BS and fighting between groups internal to Palm we never got the chance and just did another couple of series of regular PDAs.

Palm had the Palm App Store years before Apple and Android. Everything was in place to be out there with a phone years before the iPhone. It's sad. I should be a gazillionaire. ;D
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:22 am

Yeah, palm really did drop the ball on that one...
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Tortoise » Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:31 pm

Looks like Mexico made a deal with the U.S. to avoid the tariff.

Maybe Trump actually knew what he was doing.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by dualstow » Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:15 am
Palm had the Palm App Store years before Apple and Android. Everything was in place to be out there with a phone years before the iPhone. It's sad. I should be a gazillionaire. ;D
Could you repeat that? I didn't hear you, as I was busy trying to get my MySpace page up and running.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by jacksonM » Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:59 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:31 pm
Looks like Mexico made a deal with the U.S. to avoid the tariff.

Maybe Trump actually knew what he was doing.
Great.

Now how long before some federal judge blocks the whole thing again?
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:21 am

Tortoise wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:31 pm
Looks like Mexico made a deal with the U.S. to avoid the tariff.

Maybe Trump actually knew what he was doing.
I'm glad we avoided tariff. But this does go completely against what he said on Twitter. He said tariffs would remain in until illegal immigration stopped completely. So I'm not so sure he does know what he is doing. I think he is just running off of his day to day erratic emotions.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Tortoise » Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:29 pm

pmward wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:21 am
I'm glad we avoided tariff. But this does go completely against what he said on Twitter. He said tariffs would remain in until illegal immigration stopped completely.
Isn’t that usually how deal negotiations work? One party asks for everything, the other party says they can’t give everything but can give X, Y, Z, and then the two parties eventually meet somewhere in the middle?

Admit it, even though Trump lacks a filter and can be a loose cannon, the guy knows how to make a deal. He literally wrote the book on it.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by pmward » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:01 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:29 pm
pmward wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:21 am
I'm glad we avoided tariff. But this does go completely against what he said on Twitter. He said tariffs would remain in until illegal immigration stopped completely.
Isn’t that usually how deal negotiations work? One party asks for everything, the other party says they can’t give everything but can give X, Y, Z, and then the two parties eventually meet somewhere in the middle?

Admit it, even though Trump lacks a filter and can be a loose cannon, the guy knows how to make a deal. He literally wrote the book on it.
Ask China if he knows how to make a deal :o
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by ochotona » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:02 pm

Now we hear everything Mexico agreed to was already in negotiation and in the pipeline for a long while. Which makes the entire last week just a stunt. I just can't stop thinking... "he's trying to manufacture dips to buy". And doing very well.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by shekels » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:05 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:02 pm
Now we hear everything Mexico agreed to was already in negotiation and in the pipeline for a long while. Which makes the entire last week just a stunt. I just can't stop thinking... "he's trying to manufacture dips to buy". And doing very well.
Well then Mexico could have implemented any of the items that are in the agreement a looooong time ago.
But it looks like they took a laissez-faire approach. So now with the Tariffs have been "indefinitely suspended" and the deal is struck.
When the ink is dry, the agreement can be used as a tool to show that Mexico's government is not in control of their country if the Illegal Immigration is not reduced. Some reports show 40 percent to 80 of Mexico is controlled by Cartels or ungoverned.
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by shekels » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:13 am

shekels wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:05 am
ochotona wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:02 pm
Now we hear everything Mexico agreed to was already in negotiation and in the pipeline for a long while. Which makes the entire last week just a stunt. I just can't stop thinking... "he's trying to manufacture dips to buy". And doing very well.
Well then Mexico could have implemented any of the items that are in the agreement a looooong time ago.
But it looks like they took a laissez-faire approach. So now with the Tariffs have been "indefinitely suspended" and the deal is struck.
When the ink is dry, the agreement can be used as a tool to show that Mexico's government is not in control of their country if the Illegal Immigration is not reduced. Some reports show 40 percent to 80 of Mexico is controlled by Cartels or ungoverned.
https://www.contralinea.com.mx/archivo- ... inaciones/

With the help of Translate:

Contralínea reveals the deployment of the National Guard, from the document "Military links" and the Federal Police for the Regional Coordinations. The file shows that insecurity and violence dominate in around 80 percent of the national territory.


The military plan of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador against organized crime has begun with 150 Regional Coordinations, out of a total of 266 that will be operating in the middle of the sexennium. A total of 50 thousand troops have already begun the deployment in which, in 3 years, will eventually participate 110 thousand.

Of the total of Coordinations (or quadrants) in which the authorities divided the country to confront organized crime, 153 (57.52 percent) present a level of "high" violence, that is, they are controlled so far by the criminals. In addition, 62 (23.3 percent) have a "medium" level: there is a dispute over control of the area between criminal organizations and the authorities. And only 53 (19.92 percent) enjoy a low level of violence, which means that control is exercised by the authorities.



Contrary to the recommendations of national and international human rights defense organizations, the president intends to calm the country with an unprecedented military deployment in the history of Mexico.

70% of the national territory, in the hands of crime: criminal traffic light of the federal government


The criminal traffic light -with which the federal government evaluates the insecurity and violence in the country and defines the priority destinations for the National Guard- reveals that 70 percent of the national territory is in the power of organized crime. (Read more)
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Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:26 pm

shekels wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:05 am
ochotona wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:02 pm
Now we hear everything Mexico agreed to was already in negotiation and in the pipeline for a long while. Which makes the entire last week just a stunt. I just can't stop thinking... "he's trying to manufacture dips to buy". And doing very well.
Well then Mexico could have implemented any of the items that are in the agreement a looooong time ago.
But it looks like they took a laissez-faire approach. So now with the Tariffs have been "indefinitely suspended" and the deal is struck.
When the ink is dry, the agreement can be used as a tool to show that Mexico's government is not in control of their country if the Illegal Immigration is not reduced. Some reports show 40 percent to 80 of Mexico is controlled by Cartels or ungoverned.
That's what I figure too. The Trumpasaur put the Mexican government between a rock and a hard place. I would hate to be right here, but I wonder if we might see him announce some kind of enhanced joint-participation operations (roll it into the War On Drugs?) with the Mexicans to take on the cartels.
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