The Green New Deal

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dualstow
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:41 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:24 pm
Apparently Powell bashed MMT to both the House and Senate the last few days. Of course, AOC was not present for this: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powe ... 29640.html
At the center of MMT: the idea that tax policy would be more effective at controlling inflation. Instead of asking the Fed to stabilize prices through tools like interest rates, MMT suggests that when prices get too high, Congress can just raise taxes. If prices dip too low, Congress can cut taxes.
Yeah, seems like something that Congress would be into, but the Fed would not.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:13 pm

Yep. That's why I think it's inevitable that the government will eventually go down that road. I don't think the politicians will be able to resist giving themselves both a blank check to spend whatever they want, and also to feel like they could give themselves the power to bypass the fed and control inflation. It's pretty much the backbone behind all of AOC's crazy spending ideas, that the government can get away with assuming infinite debt and spending infinite money so long as they keep taxes at a level that controls for inflation. It's pure craziness to think that there is no line that you can cross that would create a crisis.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:07 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:13 pm
It's pure craziness to think that there is no line that you can cross that would create a crisis.
I'm sure there are people who have been out of the market since 1987 and 2000 and 2008 thinking it can't keep on going up, there is too much debt, unsustainable.

Every few years people seem to come to the conclusion that our debt is too big and the party is over. Yet it keeps on growing and we have yet to be called on it.

I certainly don't know a timeline or what the line is that can't be crossed. Only that many, many supposedly smart people have called for it a long time ago (or call for it perpetually) and it still hasn't happened.

And if you've been out of the market during that time (I was for a chunk before 2014) and highly into gold waiting for that time, you've pretty much been screwed.

PP is better.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:21 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:07 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:13 pm
It's pure craziness to think that there is no line that you can cross that would create a crisis.
I'm sure there are people who have been out of the market since 1987 and 2000 and 2008 thinking it can't keep on going up, there is too much debt, unsustainable.

Every few years people seem to come to the conclusion that our debt is too big and the party is over. Yet it keeps on growing and we have yet to be called on it.

I certainly don't know a timeline or what the line is that can't be crossed. Only that many, many supposedly smart people have called for it a long time ago (or call for it perpetually) and it still hasn't happened.

And if you've been out of the market during that time (I was for a chunk before 2014) and highly into gold waiting for that time, you've pretty much been screwed.

PP is better.
I agree that we don't know where the bounds are. That's also no reason to intentionally test them, haha. That's really what they are proposing, is printing money and binging on debt to do whatever they want. Guaranteeing jobs for everyone, having a "new green deal", paying for college and health care for all, etc all by simply printing money and binging on debt. Then increasing and decreasing taxes, not to pay the debt or generate revenue, but as a way to keep inflation in check. Interest rates would permanently be 0, so they would be substituting taxes for interest rates as the way to attempt to control the currency values.

I also agree that it's best to have a balanced portfolio, to benefit come what may. But I also don't think that if we go to MMT it's going to end well. While we here will do ok with a PP, we are the minority. It's not going to end well for the average stock and bond only investor. All kinds of people that were saving all their lives to be independent in retirement will wind up being forced into dependence on the government. I don't think the central bank system is great either, it's a flawed system as well, but at least it separates politics from monetary policy and does not give congress a blank check to spend as much money as they want and hope there will be no consequences.

That being said, I do always look at both sides of the argument. If anyone is interested, this is a lecture from a very pro-MMT professor. It's very much the counter-argument against what I'm saying. This is kind of the 101 lecture on MMT, and it's kind of the pillar that AOC and the more socialistic Dems policies and opinions are based on. It's always good to look at things from both angles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5JTn7GS4oA
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by Xan » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:07 pm

MMT has been discussed here in great detail many years ago. I believe it's a "fork" of MMT that is more interesting: Monetary Realism, or "MR".

MR is the factual parts of MMT without the opinions. That is, MR attempts to describe the system as it exists without the "therefore we should..." of MMT. MR does include all the MMT bits about how a country being in debt denominated in its own currency is not (BY ITSELF) a problem.

It may well represent other problems: government doing too much, being too big a part of our lives. But other than the inflation constraint, running a deficit doesn't actually have much of a downside.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by technovelist » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:31 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:07 pm
MMT has been discussed here in great detail many years ago. I believe it's a "fork" of MMT that is more interesting: Monetary Realism, or "MR".

MR is the factual parts of MMT without the opinions. That is, MR attempts to describe the system as it exists without the "therefore we should..." of MMT. MR does include all the MMT bits about how a country being in debt denominated in its own currency is not (BY ITSELF) a problem.

It may well represent other problems: government doing too much, being too big a part of our lives. But other than the inflation constraint, running a deficit doesn't actually have much of a downside.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by boglerdude » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:14 am

MMT folks bring ethics into it, which is not economics. I agree with the "job guarantee" but in the form of removal of minimum wage. Ironically, socialist "progressives" wont allow that to happen, and so our parks here in socal are filled with folks sitting around.

MMT cant go mainstream because it undermines faith in the dollar. If people start questioning the dollar they run out and buy real things like commodities and we get hyperinflation.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by boglerdude » Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:35 am

And there's the problem of how the unlimited money you print, and the 0% rates you offer, will play out in the international markets. Which I havent looked into.

http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014 ... aints.html
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by sophie » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:45 am

It isn't only about the money. All this infrastructure work has to be done by union labor, remember. How long do you think it will take to build a high speed rail network that can take over all our intercity travel needs? Or upgrade every existing building? It took NYC ~10 years to revamp the GWB bus station that was supposed to be done in 2 years. And 100 years to finish just PART of the Second Avenue subway line. OK, 10 years if you ignore the 90 years spent dithering about it.

For my 100 year old, historic building, we already know what upgrades are needed to improve energy efficiency. Money would help get them done, but between planning and executing a project that disrupts residents' lives and requires city oversight, it would still take years. Not to mention that there are a lot of NYC ordinances that get in the way of things like putting solar panels on rooftops, which is why very few buildings have them even though probably the majority of coops have tried - our electricity rates are so high that it's a no brainer to get solar if you can. If AOC really wanted to help in this area she should call for reducing building regulations, and simplifying the building permit process.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by technovelist » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:29 am

boglerdude wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:35 am
And there's the problem of how the unlimited money you print, and the 0% rates you offer, will play out in the international markets. Which I havent looked into.

http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014 ... aints.html
That probably won't affect the "dollar" relative to the other paper currencies in the world that much.
But if other countries like China and Russia switch to a new gold-backed currency, the "dollar" will be so much toilet paper.
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:11 pm

“The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”
- Saikat Chakrabarti link
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Re: The Green New Deal

Post by jacksonM » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:57 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:11 pm
“The interesting thing about the Green New Deal is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”
- Saikat Chakrabarti link
I think of it as how can we most quickly turn America into a totalitarian socialist/communist country thing. Actually turning down the thermostat on the planet by a fraction of a degree has nothing to do with it.
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