Harry on Bitcoin

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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:41 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:15 pm
Yeah, unfortunately everyone has confused something that was meant to be a currency with an investment/speculation. Even the people running the project now!
That is not correct. Bitcoin is becoming money. It needs to gain an insane amount of value per coin in order to become (global) money given its limited supply.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:43 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:36 pm
Why is bitcoin going to remain the preferred coin
It has first mover advantage, the largest current market cap, the best developers, the most hashrate securing it, the largest ecosystem surrounding it, a clear purpose which it has delivered on (hard money), the best monetary policy.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:45 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:43 pm
boglerdude wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:36 pm
Why is bitcoin going to remain the preferred coin
It has first mover advantage, the largest current market cap, the best developers, the most hashrate securing it, the largest ecosystem surrounding it, a clear purpose which it has delivered on (hard money), the best monetary policy.
And none of that will mean anything when it is abandoned as being completely worthless.

As for its being hard money: it is obvious that you don't understand that term. Hint: it means you can clank it together in your hand.

Maybe you were thinking of this? https://online.kitco.com/buy/3126/1-oz- ... d-999-3126
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:10 am

technovelist wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:45 pm
And none of that will mean anything when it is abandoned as being completely worthless.
I agree that if Bitcoin is abandoned it will be largely worthless. Why do you think such a thing would happen? What would happen to cause scarce, hard to censor, hard to inflate, hard to confiscate, hard to counterfeit, digital money to not be sought after by individuals any longer? Especially whose long term trend has been appreciating in fiat value? There are plenty of ways it can fail, but what is your opinion?
technovelist wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:45 pm
As for its being hard money: it is obvious that you don't understand that term. Hint: it means you can clank it together in your hand.
I am using hard money to refer to the fact that the supply of bitcoin is hard to inflate. Golds being physical isnt the property that gives it value. It is the fact that it is scarce and not subject to being inflated by man. Gold is hard money, sure. But Bitcoin is even harder. If the price of a bitcoin went to $100k the supply schedule stays the same. When gold prices rise, more gold is then produced due to the profitability of certain mining techniques, etc. Note: Im not anti gold, merely talking the hardness properties of each.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:48 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:10 am
Gold is hard money, sure. But Bitcoin is even harder.
I don't know where you are getting your drugs... but they are quality.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:10 am
technovelist wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:45 pm
And none of that will mean anything when it is abandoned as being completely worthless.
I agree that if Bitcoin is abandoned it will be largely worthless. Why do you think such a thing would happen? What would happen to cause scarce, hard to censor, hard to inflate, hard to confiscate, hard to counterfeit, digital money to not be sought after by individuals any longer? Especially whose long term trend has been appreciating in fiat value? There are plenty of ways it can fail, but what is your opinion?
technovelist wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:45 pm
As for its being hard money: it is obvious that you don't understand that term. Hint: it means you can clank it together in your hand.
I am using hard money to refer to the fact that the supply of bitcoin is hard to inflate. Golds being physical isnt the property that gives it value. It is the fact that it is scarce and not subject to being inflated by man. Gold is hard money, sure. But Bitcoin is even harder. If the price of a bitcoin went to $100k the supply schedule stays the same. When gold prices rise, more gold is then produced due to the profitability of certain mining techniques, etc. Note: Im not anti gold, merely talking the hardness properties of each.
As soon as Bitcoin has 1/10th the track record of gold, I'll consider it.

Until then, it's basically like a Beanie Baby... only you can't even see it.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:37 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:48 am
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:10 am
Gold is hard money, sure. But Bitcoin is even harder.
I don't know where you are getting your drugs... but they are quality.
Im open to hearing your viewpoints on the matter and even to educate myself. But seeing platitudes like this is not very useful for anyone.

Ive explained why I think that gold is "less hard" since its price appreciation can allocate more resources to is excavation and lowers its stock to flow ratio.

So specifically, how do you see the supply of bitcoins increasing beyond the 21million cap?
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:43 pm

technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm
As soon as Bitcoin has 1/10th the track record of gold, I'll consider it.
This is reasonable. However you would miss out on the appreciation of bitcoin as it monetizes. At some point bitcoin will be stable. It is at this point that it will be a good unit of account and medium of exchange. So you will be adopting bitcoin as a stable way to transact at that point. At least that is the hypothesis many of us have adopted.
technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm
Until then, it's basically like a Beanie Baby... only you can't even see it.
Not all speculations are the same.

Beanie Babies were a fad physical doll and bubble that crashed once and never came back.

Bitcoin is a digital money that has bubbled several times that keeps increasing in value over time.

Not sure how seriously I should address these "criticisms" as it seems to me as though the intent is solely insult rather than learn or discuss.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by technovelist » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:54 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:43 pm
technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm
As soon as Bitcoin has 1/10th the track record of gold, I'll consider it.
This is reasonable. However you would miss out on the appreciation of bitcoin as it monetizes. At some point bitcoin will be stable. It is at this point that it will be a good unit of account and medium of exchange. So you will be adopting bitcoin as a stable way to transact at that point. At least that is the hypothesis many of us have adopted.
technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:44 pm
Until then, it's basically like a Beanie Baby... only you can't even see it.
Not all speculations are the same.

Beanie Babies were a fad physical doll and bubble that crashed once and never came back.

Bitcoin is a digital money that has bubbled several times that keeps increasing in value over time.

Not sure how seriously I should address these "criticisms" as it seems to me as though the intent is solely insult rather than learn or discuss.
There is no evidence that Bitcoin will ever be stable, and lots of evidence that it will not be.
There is also no evidence that it will ever be used to any significant extent in commerce.
So far, it has had value only as a speculation based on people thinking that it will go up forever.
Now that that fantasy has been dashed, I don't expect it ever to regain its former brief glory.

Of course I could be wrong, and this time it is different.

But the odds of that being the case are very poor.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm

Hard Money: (def) Hard currency, safe-haven currency or strong currency is any globally traded currency that serves as a reliable and stable store of value.

Gold (and silver) has been a universally recognized store of value for around 10,000 years (give or take). Bit Coin... not quite so long. Gold's status as a store of value means it is "money." BC is at best a currency, and an incredibly volatile one at that. Gold is physical. Bitcoin is an electronic phantom. Bitcoin could be shut down fairly easily by any state that has a significant economy and the power to regulate E commerce. As just one example the price of BC tanked when rumors started floating that South Korea was going to ban it. While there have been a handful of localized efforts to restrict Gold or even confiscate it, none have been completely successful because of its physical nature and such efforts have almost always lead to a sharp increase in its value. BC has relatively limited standing as an accepted medium of exchange. I cannot think of any country where gold cannot be exchanged for goods and services though in many instances it may be necessary to first use it to purchase the local fiat currency. Gold can be somewhat volatile in the near term. BC however has the stability of nitroglycerin. Calling it a hard currency betrays a breathtaking ignorance of elementary economics. Some have called BC a speculative currency. I think of it more as a lottery ticket.

Gold as a universally accepted store of value with a multi-millennial pedigree, is cash in its purest form. While its value relative to the fiat dollar may fluctuate, barring the development of the ability to create it artificially and cheaply, it will always retain its basic purchasing power. It is the epitome of safety.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:39 am

technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:54 pm
There is no evidence that Bitcoin will ever be stable, and lots of evidence that it will not be.
There is also no evidence that it will ever be used to any significant extent in commerce.
It is hard for me to think of evidence that could be provided that a nascent technology will achieve its end goals.

Bitcoin started transacting $0/day on chain and is in the $100s of millions per day now. However you look at it, it is still a drop in the bucket, for sure.
technovelist wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:54 pm
So far, it has had value only as a speculation based on people thinking that it will go up forever.
Now that that fantasy has been dashed, I don't expect it ever to regain its former brief glory.
When you say that fantasy has been dashed, I am assuming you are referring to the most recent bubble popping? But there have been similar, and even worse Bitcoin bubbles for years. From $30/coin to $1. From $1200 to $100. Etc. There is nothing really new or unexpected in this new round of mania.
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Re: Harry on Bitcoin

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:59 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
Hard Money: (def) Hard currency, safe-haven currency or strong currency is any globally traded currency that serves as a reliable and stable store of value.
I was using the term hard money to refer to its ability to be controlled/inflated by man and thus its stock/flow ratio. By this definition you provide Bitcoin is currently a volatile money and not hard.
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
Gold (and silver) has been a universally recognized store of value for around 10,000 years (give or take). Bit Coin... not quite so long. Gold's status as a store of value means it is "money." BC is at best a currency, and an incredibly volatile one at that.
I think Bitcoin has some very desirable properties of money and can and will be used as money when its value increases and liquidity is enough to stabilize the price. I think this make take many years. My claim is not that Bitcoin is a stable store of value money currently, but that it has properties which are consistent with money once it monetizes. See more here: https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-b ... ecc8bdecc1
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
Gold is physical. Bitcoin is an electronic phantom.
It seems like you are saying digital things are bad or cannot be scarce. I disagree. The world is becoming more and more digital. A digital money has utility.
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
Bitcoin could be shut down fairly easily by any state that has a significant economy and the power to regulate E commerce. As just one example the price of BC tanked when rumors started floating that South Korea was going to ban it.
An example of the price dropped on news that a country was going to ban it is not evidence that a state can "shut it down". Sure they can write laws that say their citizen cannot do anything with Bitcoin, but that doesn’t stop Bitcoin. I do think Bitcoin will be banned in several countries as time goes on. And I think that will hurt from a price perspective.
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
While there have been a handful of localized efforts to restrict Gold or even confiscate it, none have been completely successful because of its physical nature and such efforts have almost always lead to a sharp increase in its value.
Governments own a good % of the available gold. And in fact part of the reason we ended up with the current fiat money system is the weakness of gold's physical property and its ability to be centralized. More here for those with lots of time and curiosity: https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard ... 1119473861
Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:23 pm
BC has relatively limited standing as an accepted medium of exchange. I cannot think of any country where gold cannot be exchanged for goods and services though in many instances it may be necessary to first use it to purchase the local fiat currency. Gold can be somewhat volatile in the near term. BC however has the stability of nitroglycerin. Calling it a hard currency betrays a breathtaking ignorance of elementary economics. Some have called BC a speculative currency. I think of it more as a lottery ticket.

Gold as a universally accepted store of value with a multi-millennial pedigree, is cash in its purest form. While its value relative to the fiat dollar may fluctuate, barring the development of the ability to create it artificially and cheaply, it will always retain its basic purchasing power. It is the epitome of safety.
I agree with most of this. Ive tried to clarify my meaning of hard money above. And your points about Bitcoin being both volatile and not widely accepted, I agree with. But that does not mean it will not be widely held/accepted in the future. When speculating on the future (yes, speculating) it is useful not just to look at Bitcoin "today" but the "future" as well.

Lets make this more fun and falsifiable. Will you be willing to say that you have misjudged Bitcoin, if its value in the market hits $100,000 per coin any time within the next 10 years?
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